| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0429515305466751 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 330664 | 322774 | 7890 |
| 4 | 326814 | 318118.887576013 | 8695.11242398672 |
| 5 | 322900 | 314642.355962899 | 8257.64403710107 |
| 6 | 322310 | 311083.034413002 | 11226.965586998 |
| 7 | 385164 | 310975.249768358 | 74188.7502316416 |
| 8 | 404861 | 377015.770140152 | 27845.2298598476 |
| 9 | 412136 | 397908.765381057 | 14227.2346189431 |
| 10 | 411057 | 405794.846883387 | 5262.15311661287 |
| 11 | 410040 | 404941.864413717 | 5098.1355862834 |
| 12 | 414980 | 404143.837140082 | 10836.1628599181 |
| 13 | 413626 | 409549.266920168 | 4076.73307983152 |
| 14 | 411062 | 408370.368845577 | 2691.63115442253 |
| 15 | 408352 | 405921.978523327 | 2430.02147667296 |
| 16 | 409780 | 403316.351665011 | 6463.64833498857 |
| 17 | 411318 | 405021.975253915 | 6296.02474608534 |
| 18 | 415555 | 406830.399153119 | 8724.60084688122 |
| 19 | 479481 | 411442.134112901 | 68038.8658870989 |
| 20 | 497826 | 478290.507539412 | 19535.492460588 |
| 21 | 501638 | 497474.586840577 | 4163.41315942269 |
| 22 | 497990 | 501465.411808073 | -3475.41180807265 |
| 23 | 499287 | 497668.137551636 | 1618.86244836403 |
| 24 | 506247 | 499034.670171538 | 7212.32982846227 |
| 25 | 510401 | 506304.450776478 | 4096.54922352236 |
| 26 | 508642 | 510634.403835588 | -1992.40383558767 |
| 27 | 501805 | 508789.827041382 | -6984.82704138214 |
| 28 | 495476 | 501652.818029351 | -6176.81802935095 |
| 29 | 490336 | 495058.514241082 | -4722.51424108207 |
| 30 | 490042 | 489715.675026399 | 326.324973600917 |
| 31 | 553155 | 489435.691183471 | 63719.3088165291 |
| 32 | 569999 | 555285.533022517 | 14713.466977483 |
| 33 | 573170 | 572761.498948848 | 408.501051152125 |
| 34 | 571687 | 575950.044694225 | -4263.04469422484 |
| 35 | 575453 | 574283.940399819 | 1169.05960018106 |
| 36 | 580177 | 578100.153298947 | 2076.84670105297 |
| 37 | 579849 | 582913.357043468 | -3064.35704346804 |
| 38 | 574346 | 582453.73821831 | -8107.73821830959 |
| 39 | 563325 | 576602.498452561 | -13277.4984525614 |
| 40 | 555604 | 565011.209572193 | -9407.20957219286 |
| 41 | 545544 | 556886.155522894 | -11342.1555228938 |
| 42 | 545109 | 546338.992583487 | -1229.99258348707 |
| 43 | 605181 | 545851.162519465 | 59329.8374805347 |
| 44 | 627856 | 608471.46984634 | 19384.5301536602 |
| 45 | 631421 | 631979.065085368 | -558.065085367649 |
| 46 | 625671 | 635520.095335806 | -9849.09533580637 |
| 47 | 613577 | 629347.061616633 | -15770.0616166334 |
| 48 | 606463 | 616575.713333384 | -10112.7133333837 |
| 49 | 601676 | 609027.356817735 | -7351.35681773501 |
| 50 | 589121 | 603924.604790819 | -14803.6047908185 |
| 51 | 573559 | 590733.767307445 | -17174.7673074448 |
| 52 | 558487 | 574434.084764807 | -15947.084764807 |
| 53 | 552148 | 558677.133066401 | -6529.133066401 |
| 54 | 545720 | 552057.696808056 | -6337.69680805621 |
| 55 | 606569 | 545357.483030009 | 61211.5169699906 |
| 56 | 636067 | 608835.611370954 | 27231.3886290457 |
| 57 | 630704 | 639503.241191483 | -8799.2411914831 |
| 58 | 623275 | 633762.30031466 | -10487.3003146596 |
| 59 | 617771 | 625882.854714842 | -8111.85471484228 |
| 60 | 605401 | 620030.438139268 | -14629.4381392676 |
| 61 | 619393 | 607032.081380148 | 12360.9186198518 |
| 62 | 596019 | 621555.001753834 | -25536.0017538337 |
| 63 | 569977 | 597084.191394464 | -27107.1913944639 |
| 64 | 546213 | 569877.89603525 | -23664.89603525 |
| 65 | 528492 | 545097.452530308 | -16605.4525303082 |
| 66 | 505944 | 526663.222928711 | -20719.2229287112 |
| 67 | 554910 | 503225.300592185 | 51684.6994078147 |
| 68 | 567831 | 554411.237537596 | 13419.7624624042 |
| 69 | 564021 | 567908.636874929 | -3887.63687492884 |
| 70 | 552800 | 563931.656920941 | -11131.656920941 |
| 71 | 541102 | 552232.535218666 | -11130.5352186661 |
| 72 | 542378 | 540056.461695221 | 2321.53830477933 |
| 73 | 540380 | 541432.175318634 | -1052.17531863367 |
| 74 | 521219 | 539388.982778295 | -18169.9827782949 |
| 75 | 504652 | 519447.55420796 | -14795.5542079604 |
| 76 | 490626 | 502245.062509442 | -11619.0625094423 |
| 77 | 481686 | 487720.005991144 | -6034.00599114422 |
| 78 | 477930 | 478520.836198497 | -590.836198496749 |
| 79 | 522605 | 474739.458879469 | 47865.541120531 |
| 80 | 531432 | 521470.357131041 | 9961.6428689594 |
| 81 | 532355 | 530725.224939022 | 1629.77506097825 |
| 82 | 539954 | 531718.226272338 | 8235.7737276624 |
| 83 | 524987 | 539670.965359177 | -14683.9653591767 |
| 84 | 533307 | 524073.266572506 | 9233.73342749424 |
| 85 | 530541 | 532789.869555877 | -2248.86955587659 |
| 86 | 508392 | 529927.277166452 | -21535.2771664519 |
| 87 | 495208 | 506853.304051406 | -11645.3040514059 |
| 88 | 482223 | 493169.120418717 | -10946.1204187167 |
| 89 | 470495 | 479713.967793185 | -9218.96779318457 |
| 90 | 466106 | 467589.999016407 | -1483.99901640677 |
| 91 | 515037 | 463137.258987322 | 51899.7410126777 |
| 92 | 517752 | 514297.432298793 | 3454.56770120712 |
| 93 | 515565 | 517160.811268937 | -1595.81126893684 |
| 94 | 510727 | 514905.268732472 | -4178.26873247238 |
| 95 | 499725 | 509887.805695377 | -10162.8056953774 |
| 96 | 498369 | 498449.297636112 | -80.2976361124311 |
| 97 | 493756 | 497089.848729742 | -3333.84872974217 |
| 98 | 476141 | 492333.654824189 | -16192.6548241886 |
| 99 | 458458 | 474023.155515876 | -15565.1555158757 |
| 100 | 443182 | 455671.608263272 | -12489.6082632719 |
| 101 | 429597 | 439859.160472436 | -10262.1604724359 |
| 102 | 424476 | 425833.384973429 | -1357.3849734292 |
| 103 | 476257 | 420654.083211279 | 55602.9167887206 |
| 104 | 480555 | 474823.313590214 | 5731.68640978565 |
| 105 | 469762 | 479367.498294128 | -9605.49829412822 |
| 106 | 459820 | 468161.927440732 | -8341.9274407319 |
| 107 | 451028 | 457861.628889443 | -6833.62888944318 |
| 108 | 450065 | 448776.114069454 | 1288.88593054638 |
| 109 | 444385 | 447868.473692871 | -3483.47369287064 |
| 110 | 428846 | 442038.853166143 | -13192.8531661428 |
| 111 | 421020 | 425933.199930379 | -4913.1999303794 |
| 112 | 399778 | 417896.170473488 | -18118.1704734878 |
| 113 | 389005 | 395875.967320946 | -6870.96732094593 |
| 114 | 384018 | 384807.848758175 | -789.848758175096 |
| 115 | 431933 | 379786.923545111 | 52146.0764548889 |
| 116 | 445844 | 429941.677340853 | 15902.3226591475 |
| 117 | 431464 | 444535.70643831 | -13071.70643831 |
| 118 | 423263 | 429594.256639928 | -6331.25663992774 |
| 119 | 415881 | 421121.319476959 | -5240.319476959 |
| 120 | 416208 | 413514.23973487 | 2693.76026512991 |
| 121 | 413491 | 413956.940861183 | -465.940861183219 |
| 122 | 399153 | 411219.927988051 | -12066.9279880512 |
| 123 | 385939 | 396363.634961968 | -10424.6349619679 |
| 124 | 373917 | 382701.880934961 | -8784.88093496097 |
| 125 | 364635 | 370302.556853134 | -5667.55685313407 |
| 126 | 364696 | 360777.126611832 | 3918.87338816834 |
| 127 | 418358 | 361006.448221872 | 57351.5517781278 |
| 128 | 428212 | 417131.78514997 | 11080.2148500304 |
| 129 | 423730 | 427461.697336564 | -3731.69733656442 |
| 130 | 420677 | 422819.415224422 | -2142.415224422 |
| 131 | 417428 | 419674.395211467 | -2246.39521146659 |
| 132 | 423245 | 416328.909098921 | 6916.0909010786 |
| 133 | 423113 | 422442.965788523 | 670.034211477323 |
| 134 | 418873 | 422339.744783424 | -3466.74478342425 |
| 135 | 405733 | 417950.842788961 | -12217.8427889615 |
| 136 | 397812 | 404286.067741197 | -6474.06774119689 |
| 137 | 389918 | 396086.99662285 | -6168.99662284966 |
| 138 | 391116 | 387928.028775961 | 3187.97122403904 |
| 139 | 443814 | 389262.957019372 | 54551.0429806278 |
| 140 | 460373 | 444304.007808308 | 16068.9921916923 |
| 141 | 455422 | 461553.195617283 | -6131.1956172834 |
| 142 | 456288 | 456338.85138144 | -50.8513814400067 |
| 143 | 452233 | 457202.667236777 | -4969.66723677673 |
| 144 | 459256 | 452934.212422649 | 6321.78757735051 |
| 145 | 461146 | 460228.742874888 | 917.257125112345 |
| 146 | 451391 | 462158.140472316 | -10767.1404723161 |
| 147 | 443101 | 451940.675309419 | -8839.67530941905 |
| 148 | 438810 | 443270.997725344 | -4460.99772534386 |
| 149 | 430457 | 438788.391045275 | -8331.39104527509 |
| 150 | 435721 | 430077.545048298 | 5643.45495170233 |
| 151 | 488280 | 435583.940076045 | 52696.0599239555 |
| 152 | 505814 | 490406.316503558 | 15407.6834964423 |
| 153 | 502338 | 508602.100091909 | -6264.10009190865 |
| 154 | 500910 | 504857.047405464 | -3947.04740546359 |
| 155 | 501434 | 503259.515678259 | -1825.51567825867 |
| 156 | 515476 | 503705.10698584 | 11770.8930141595 |
| 157 | 520862 | 518252.6848567 | 2609.31514330016 |
| 158 | 519517 | 523750.758935783 | -4233.75893578317 |
| 159 | 511805 | 522223.912509526 | -10418.9125095256 |
| 160 | 508607 | 514064.40427061 | -5457.40427060961 |
| 161 | 505327 | 510632.000404375 | -5305.00040437497 |
| 162 | 511435 | 507124.142517456 | 4310.85748254368 |
| 163 | 570158 | 513417.3004443 | 56740.6995556998 |
| 164 | 591665 | 574577.400334507 | 17087.5996654935 |
| 165 | 593572 | 596818.338893508 | -3246.33889350831 |
| 166 | 586346 | 598585.903669359 | -12239.9036693589 |
| 167 | 586063 | 590834.181073016 | -4771.18107301614 |
| 168 | 591504 | 590346.251543415 | 1157.74845658522 |
| 169 | 594033 | 595836.978611613 | -1803.97861161316 |
| 170 | 585597 | 598288.494969171 | -12691.4949691709 |
| 171 | 572450 | 589307.37583532 | -16857.3758353195 |
| 172 | 562917 | 575436.325742192 | -12519.3257421921 |
| 173 | 554675 | 565365.601540153 | -10690.6015401526 |
| 174 | 553997 | 556664.423841538 | -2667.42384153837 |
| 175 | 601310 | 555871.853904927 | 45438.1460950725 |
| 176 | 622255 | 605136.491824914 | 17118.5081750856 |
| 177 | 616735 | 626816.75795171 | -10081.75795171 |
| 178 | 606480 | 620863.731017083 | -14383.7310170829 |
| 179 | 595079 | 609990.927754928 | -14911.9277549275 |
| 180 | 598588 | 597949.437634452 | 638.562365547987 |
| 181 | 599917 | 601485.864865402 | -1568.86486540176 |
| 182 | 591573 | 602747.479718212 | -11174.4797182119 |
| 183 | 575489 | 593923.518711252 | -18434.5187112519 |
| 184 | 567223 | 577047.727917712 | -9824.7279177123 |
| 185 | 555338 | 568359.740816442 | -13021.7408164419 |
| 186 | 555252 | 555915.437117994 | -663.437117993599 |
| 187 | 608249 | 555800.941478354 | 52448.0585216457 |
| 188 | 630859 | 611050.665866061 | 19808.3341339394 |
| 189 | 628632 | 634511.464134693 | -5879.46413469326 |
| 190 | 624435 | 632031.932151314 | -7596.93215131387 |
| 191 | 609670 | 627508.632287956 | -17838.6322879557 |
| 192 | 615830 | 611977.435728329 | 3852.56427167135 |
| 193 | 621170 | 618302.909260326 | 2867.09073967359 |
| 194 | 604212 | 623766.055195812 | -19554.0551958116 |
| 195 | 584348 | 605968.178596757 | -21620.1785967574 |
| 196 | 573717 | 585175.558835334 | -11458.5588353341 |
| 197 | 555234 | 574052.396195497 | -18818.3961954974 |
| 198 | 544897 | 554761.117276467 | -9864.11727646703 |
| 199 | 598866 | 544000.438341951 | 54865.5616580491 |
| 200 | 620081 | 600325.998189467 | 19755.0018105329 |
| 201 | 607699 | 622389.505753182 | -14690.5057531818 |
| 202 | 589960 | 609376.526046578 | -19416.5260465778 |
| 203 | 578665 | 590803.556534978 | -12138.556534978 |
| 204 | 580166 | 578987.186953173 | 1178.81304682663 |
| 205 | 579457 | 580538.818777763 | -1081.81877776294 |
| 206 | 571560 | 579783.353005484 | -8223.35300548386 |
| 207 | 560460 | 571533.147407673 | -11073.1474076727 |
| 208 | 551397 | 559957.538778544 | -8560.53877854429 |
| 209 | 536763 | 550526.850535702 | -13763.8505357016 |
| 210 | 540562 | 535301.672088978 | 5260.32791102247 |
| 211 | 588184 | 539326.611223933 | 48857.3887760666 |
| 212 | 607049 | 589047.110850379 | 18001.8891496207 |
| 213 | 598968 | 608685.319542087 | -9717.31954208715 |
| 214 | 577644 | 600186.945794943 | -22542.9457949434 |
| 215 | 562640 | 577894.69177002 | -15254.6917700198 |
| 216 | 565867 | 562235.47941048 | 3631.52058952022 |
| 217 | 561274 | 565618.458778011 | -4344.45877801138 |
| 218 | 554144 | 560838.857624099 | -6694.85762409889 |
| 219 | 539900 | 553421.303242352 | -13521.3032423517 |
| 220 | 526271 | 538596.542573107 | -12325.5425731071 |
| 221 | 511841 | 524438.141654774 | -12597.1416547738 |
| 222 | 505282 | 509467.075140188 | -4185.07514018804 |
| 223 | 554083 | 502728.319757464 | 51354.6802425359 |
| 224 | 584225 | 553735.081874616 | 30489.9181253839 |
| 225 | 568858 | 585186.670524344 | -16328.6705243442 |
| 226 | 539516 | 569118.329133531 | -29602.3291335312 |
| 227 | 521612 | 538504.8637895 | -16892.8637894996 |
| 228 | 525562 | 519875.289434424 | 5686.71056557586 |
| 229 | 526519 | 524069.542356992 | 2449.45764300844 |
| 230 | 515713 | 525131.750311768 | -9418.75031176803 |
| 231 | 503454 | 513921.200570041 | -10467.2005700406 |
| 232 | 489301 | 501212.618285018 | -11911.6182850183 |
| 233 | 479020 | 486547.996048389 | -7527.99604838906 |
| 234 | 475102 | 475943.657096161 | -841.657096161391 |
| 235 | 523682 | 471989.506635686 | 51692.4933643142 |
| 236 | 551528 | 522789.778343457 | 28738.2216565431 |
| 237 | 531626 | 551870.128948795 | -20244.128948795 |
| 238 | 511037 | 531098.61262586 | -20061.61262586 |
| 239 | 492417 | 509647.935658345 | -17230.9356583449 |
| 240 | 492188 | 490287.840599068 | 1900.15940093232 |
| 241 | 492865 | 490140.45535362 | 2724.5446463796 |
| 242 | 480961 | 490934.478716225 | -9973.47871622513 |
| 243 | 461935 | 478602.102540489 | -16667.1025404886 |
| 244 | 456608 | 458860.224976596 | -2252.22497659619 |
| 245 | 441977 | 453436.488466716 | -11459.488466716 |
| 246 | 439148 | 438313.285897789 | 834.714102211467 |
| 247 | 488180 | 435520.138146047 | 52659.8618539526 |
| 248 | 520564 | 486813.959811051 | 33750.0401889489 |
| 249 | 501492 | 520647.575693178 | -19155.5756931783 |
| 250 | 485025 | 500752.814398654 | -15727.8143986536 |
| 251 | 464196 | 483610.280698077 | -19414.2806980774 |
| 252 | 460170 | 461947.407627632 | -1777.4076276322 |
| 253 | 467037 | 457845.06524962 | 9191.93475037994 |
| 254 | 460070 | 465106.872915834 | -5036.87291583407 |
| 255 | 447988 | 457923.53151493 | -9935.5315149299 |
| 256 | 442867 | 445414.785229569 | -2547.78522956889 |
| 257 | 436087 | 440184.353954455 | -4097.35395445471 |
| 258 | 431328 | 433228.366330919 | -1900.36633091944 |
| 259 | 484015 | 428387.742688407 | 55627.2573115929 |
| 260 | 509673 | 483464.018530054 | 26208.9814699463 |
| 261 | 512927 | 510247.734398257 | 2679.26560174266 |
| 262 | 502831 | 513616.812956593 | -10785.8129565932 |
| 263 | 470984 | 503057.545781917 | -32073.5457819174 |
| 264 | 471067 | 469832.937900525 | 1234.06209947477 |
| 265 | 476049 | 469968.942756487 | 6080.05724351271 |
| 266 | 474605 | 475212.090520908 | -607.090520907543 |
| 267 | 470439 | 473742.015053854 | -3303.01505385421 |
| 268 | 461251 | 469434.145501872 | -8183.14550187247 |
| 269 | 454724 | 459894.666877881 | -5170.66687788087 |
| 270 | 455626 | 453145.578821529 | 2480.42117847106 |
| 271 | 516847 | 454154.116707545 | 62692.8832924553 |
| 272 | 525192 | 518067.87199934 | 7124.12800066033 |
| 273 | 522975 | 526718.864200778 | -3743.86420077842 |
| 274 | 518585 | 524341.059503196 | -5756.05950319616 |
| 275 | 509239 | 519703.827937616 | -10464.8279376161 |
| 276 | 512238 | 509908.347560788 | 2329.65243921214 |
| 277 | 519164 | 513007.409698694 | 6156.59030130616 |
| 278 | 517009 | 520197.844675084 | -3188.84467508376 |
| 279 | 509933 | 517905.878915613 | -7972.87891561328 |
| 280 | 509127 | 510487.431563324 | -1360.43156332441 |
| 281 | 500857 | 509622.998945476 | -8765.99894547561 |
| 282 | 506971 | 500976.485873997 | 5994.51412600314 |
| 283 | 569323 | 507347.959430592 | 61975.0405694076 |
| 284 | 579714 | 572361.882278741 | 7352.11772125924 |
| 285 | 577992 | 583068.666987628 | -5076.66698762809 |
| 286 | 565464 | 581128.616370434 | -15664.6163704337 |
| 287 | 547344 | 567927.797121897 | -20583.7971218971 |
| 288 | 554788 | 548923.691531049 | 5864.30846895068 |
| 289 | 562325 | 556619.572555389 | 5705.42744461133 |
| 290 | 560854 | 564401.629396558 | -3547.62939655769 |
| 291 | 555332 | 562778.253284163 | -7446.25328416319 |
| 292 | 543599 | 556936.42530877 | -13337.4253087702 |
| 293 | 536662 | 544630.562478206 | -7968.56247820647 |
| 294 | 542722 | 537351.300523511 | 5370.69947648922 |
| 295 | 593530 | 543641.980286132 | 49888.0197138678 |
| 296 | 610763 | 596592.747088786 | 14170.2529112145 |
| 297 | 612613 | 614434.381139556 | -1821.3811395556 |
| 298 | 611324 | 616206.150031903 | -4882.15003190283 |
| 299 | 594167 | 614707.454215674 | -20540.4542156742 |
| 300 | 595454 | 596668.210268987 | -1214.21026898699 |
| 301 | 590865 | 597903.058079529 | -7038.05807952851 |
| 302 | 589379 | 593011.762712936 | -3632.76271293638 |
| 303 | 584428 | 591369.729994303 | -6941.72999430285 |
| 304 | 573100 | 586120.572066406 | -13020.5720664058 |
| 305 | 567456 | 574233.31856756 | -6777.3185675604 |
| 306 | 569028 | 568298.222362081 | 729.777637918713 |
| 307 | 620735 | 569901.567428589 | 50833.4325714114 |
| 308 | 628884 | 623791.941160472 | 5092.05883952801 |
| 309 | 628232 | 632159.652881263 | -3927.65288126341 |
| 310 | 612117 | 631338.954178557 | -19221.9541785571 |
| 311 | 595404 | 614398.34182649 | -18994.34182649 |
| 312 | 597141 | 596869.505773316 | 271.494226684445 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 313 | 598618.166865886 | 560324.548632714 | 636911.785099058 |
| 314 | 600095.333731772 | 544764.727254216 | 655425.940209329 |
| 315 | 601572.500597659 | 532358.087497043 | 670786.913698274 |
| 316 | 603049.667463545 | 521445.202916826 | 684654.132010264 |
| 317 | 604526.834329431 | 511398.71018876 | 697654.958470102 |
| 318 | 606004.001195317 | 501904.423240472 | 710103.579150162 |
| 319 | 607481.168061204 | 492780.152195126 | 722182.183927281 |
| 320 | 608958.33492709 | 483910.101151223 | 734006.568702957 |
| 321 | 610435.501792976 | 475215.880978756 | 745655.122607196 |
| 322 | 611912.668658862 | 466641.925485135 | 757183.411832589 |
| 323 | 613389.835524748 | 458147.443726362 | 768632.227323135 |
| 324 | 614867.002390635 | 449701.659313597 | 780032.345467672 |
