| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0240942222896128 |
| beta | 0.14173454654716 |
| gamma | 0.959898381687373 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1130 | 1147.95673076923 | -17.9567307692305 |
| 14 | 1340 | 1354.5009255273 | -14.5009255272976 |
| 15 | 1140 | 1153.57886480117 | -13.5788648011687 |
| 16 | 1290 | 1304.29931547624 | -14.2993154762448 |
| 17 | 1260 | 1269.95357552375 | -9.95357552375413 |
| 18 | 1280 | 1290.26188483115 | -10.261884831147 |
| 19 | 1330 | 1295.94438816309 | 34.0556118369079 |
| 20 | 1270 | 1250.31098646939 | 19.6890135306071 |
| 21 | 1300 | 1334.39867042225 | -34.3986704222534 |
| 22 | 1150 | 1173.31568279704 | -23.3156827970406 |
| 23 | 1410 | 1322.00344179661 | 87.9965582033858 |
| 24 | 1250 | 1386.59035615041 | -136.59035615041 |
| 25 | 1030 | 1105.14490285022 | -75.1449028502186 |
| 26 | 1320 | 1312.89860743639 | 7.10139256361322 |
| 27 | 1160 | 1112.78468688186 | 47.2153131181437 |
| 28 | 1300 | 1263.926530212 | 36.0734697880036 |
| 29 | 1190 | 1234.66896710513 | -44.6689671051302 |
| 30 | 1310 | 1253.53699183726 | 56.4630081627365 |
| 31 | 1290 | 1302.25533285395 | -12.2553328539454 |
| 32 | 1320 | 1241.80258536959 | 78.1974146304108 |
| 33 | 1300 | 1276.58673301967 | 23.4132669803273 |
| 34 | 1230 | 1127.43080972696 | 102.569190273042 |
| 35 | 1330 | 1384.00748772984 | -54.0074877298373 |
| 36 | 1220 | 1234.88342612994 | -14.8834261299428 |
| 37 | 1010 | 1014.44318372616 | -4.44318372615771 |
| 38 | 1290 | 1301.70022623831 | -11.7002262383057 |
| 39 | 1170 | 1139.40056240055 | 30.5994375994487 |
| 40 | 1240 | 1280.33770204596 | -40.3377020459602 |
| 41 | 1260 | 1173.97399693821 | 86.0260030617935 |
| 42 | 1260 | 1291.54682387412 | -31.5468238741173 |
| 43 | 1310 | 1274.28914806612 | 35.7108519338822 |
| 44 | 1360 | 1300.40718440574 | 59.5928155942645 |
| 45 | 1250 | 1284.04098924809 | -34.040989248093 |
| 46 | 1170 | 1208.07355623734 | -38.0735562373447 |
| 47 | 1360 | 1314.52675214569 | 45.4732478543085 |
| 48 | 1140 | 1204.73117765222 | -64.7311776522233 |
| 49 | 1030 | 992.981087221248 | 37.0189127787518 |
| 50 | 1260 | 1274.69162160699 | -14.6916216069892 |
| 51 | 1210 | 1152.18741623733 | 57.8125837626742 |
| 52 | 1190 | 1227.66381868279 | -37.663818682795 |
| 53 | 1230 | 1240.08283985375 | -10.0828398537462 |
| 54 | 1350 | 1245.21757295957 | 104.782427040433 |
| 55 | 1300 | 1294.73152027022 | 5.26847972978408 |
| 56 | 1340 | 1342.86590475718 | -2.8659047571814 |
| 57 | 1270 | 1237.44606249871 | 32.5539375012854 |
| 58 | 1220 | 1159.69763557183 | 60.3023644281704 |
| 59 | 1400 | 1347.51328849761 | 52.4867115023851 |
| 60 | 1120 | 1135.40240219965 | -15.4024021996454 |
| 61 | 1000 | 1021.0777231945 | -21.077723194502 |
| 62 | 1260 | 1253.66957088174 | 6.33042911825783 |
| 63 | 1260 | 1200.38546055091 | 59.6145394490916 |
| 64 | 1150 | 1187.26576118028 | -37.2657611802838 |
| 65 | 1240 | 1226.33272347278 | 13.6672765272192 |
| 66 | 1360 | 1340.52448906838 | 19.4755109316245 |
| 67 | 1350 | 1295.35240551217 | 54.6475944878282 |
| 68 | 1280 | 1337.81621065921 | -57.8162106592133 |
| 69 | 1320 | 1264.82470780609 | 55.1752921939087 |
| 70 | 1210 | 1214.26454604516 | -4.26454604516084 |
| 71 | 1370 | 1393.63185926932 | -23.6318592693158 |
| 72 | 1060 | 1116.25932284121 | -56.2593228412068 |
| 73 | 1040 | 995.663108056091 | 44.3368919439088 |
| 74 | 1260 | 1255.75895756506 | 4.24104243494367 |
| 75 | 1210 | 1252.58508834937 | -42.5850883493681 |
| 76 | 1200 | 1146.14496980825 | 53.8550301917453 |
| 77 | 1200 | 1235.32775073312 | -35.3277507331161 |
| 78 | 1290 | 1353.8204570737 | -63.8204570737032 |
| 79 | 1400 | 1339.34558943227 | 60.654410567731 |
| 80 | 1280 | 1276.37787772823 | 3.62212227176747 |
| 81 | 1280 | 1310.70010202173 | -30.7001020217324 |
| 82 | 1220 | 1202.08242229985 | 17.9175777001451 |
| 83 | 1350 | 1363.61028536493 | -13.610285364932 |
| 84 | 1000 | 1055.71780726156 | -55.717807261557 |
| 85 | 980 | 1029.17508079577 | -49.1750807957692 |
| 86 | 1240 | 1248.9427730415 | -8.94277304150182 |
| 87 | 1190 | 1201.0264403996 | -11.0264403996005 |
| 88 | 1200 | 1185.23724390875 | 14.7627560912501 |
| 89 | 1150 | 1189.34913492778 | -39.3491349277801 |
| 90 | 1270 | 1280.45488824894 | -10.4548882489412 |
| 91 | 1410 | 1383.45349603933 | 26.5465039606677 |
| 92 | 1420 | 1265.70464961965 | 154.295350380348 |
| 93 | 1260 | 1271.48655875641 | -11.4865587564143 |
| 94 | 1300 | 1208.92240407381 | 91.0775959261889 |
| 95 | 1410 | 1342.97546049755 | 67.0245395024547 |
| 96 | 1000 | 998.152931026797 | 1.84706897320257 |
| 97 | 950 | 979.894995320595 | -29.8949953205947 |
| 98 | 1280 | 1238.6502789987 | 41.3497210013004 |
| 99 | 1330 | 1191.00015375426 | 138.999846245743 |
| 100 | 1190 | 1204.50298331626 | -14.5029833162621 |
| 101 | 1170 | 1158.63808458984 | 11.3619154101648 |
| 102 | 1270 | 1279.62489500444 | -9.62489500444076 |
| 103 | 1340 | 1418.90008279685 | -78.9000827968521 |
| 104 | 1470 | 1419.5165933298 | 50.4834066701983 |
| 105 | 1270 | 1268.37781232287 | 1.62218767713398 |
| 106 | 1280 | 1303.13349004114 | -23.1334900411393 |
| 107 | 1430 | 1412.43742498319 | 17.5625750168133 |
| 108 | 980 | 1005.73280906241 | -25.732809062414 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 957.347132022569 | 861.721465803784 | 1052.97279824135 |
| 110 | 1283.93654293544 | 1188.27470089138 | 1379.59838497951 |
| 111 | 1326.99855513513 | 1231.29101762046 | 1422.70609264981 |
| 112 | 1193.11338802763 | 1097.34953542996 | 1288.87724062529 |
| 113 | 1171.63492577766 | 1075.8030444024 | 1267.46680715291 |
| 114 | 1272.45688407246 | 1176.54417328383 | 1368.3695948611 |
| 115 | 1346.87062801301 | 1250.86320873699 | 1442.87804728904 |
| 116 | 1470.66183289407 | 1374.54475758194 | 1566.7789082062 |
| 117 | 1272.4335889804 | 1176.19085312282 | 1368.67632483798 |
| 118 | 1283.8528940999 | 1187.46744937192 | 1380.23833882788 |
| 119 | 1431.80917947217 | 1335.26294857881 | 1528.35541036553 |
| 120 | 984.035696588796 | 887.309589868601 | 1080.76180330899 |
