| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ma1 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 1.5682 | -0.4412 | -0.1456 | -0.4771 | 0.9181 | 0.07 | -0.6278 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.0173 ) | (0.0298 ) | (3e-04 ) | (0 ) | (0.3711 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 1.5549 | -0.4217 | -0.1525 | -0.466 | 0.9897 | 0 | -0.6672 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.1265 ) | (0.0661 ) | (0.0268 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 1.214 | 0 | -0.2421 | -0.1106 | 0.9898 | 0 | -0.6744 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (0.1434 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | 1.1698 | 0 | -0.1997 | 0 | 0.9895 | 0 | -0.6804 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 12 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 13 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 10.9714370741679 |
| 19.9568834127008 |
| -6.38327154036589 |
| -11.8531998318054 |
| -13.2549202682297 |
| 21.1825162576756 |
| 4.29030858687219 |
| -9.61135895952588 |
| -7.46579699872391 |
| -13.9856731666912 |
| 11.3690621092492 |
| 4.62302298603934 |
| 33.6250172593918 |
| 6.41287779459441 |
| 2.22325358763025 |
| 10.3954533842038 |
| 52.6932353278931 |
| 7.76384070277046 |
| 30.372930997873 |
| -22.2211631074159 |
| -11.443169120527 |
| 52.6609567545231 |
| -29.8184247735757 |
| 1.98967366370619 |
| 41.8990332311151 |
| -21.2938015933772 |
| -28.3288062899811 |
| -28.6696022940287 |
| -12.3700513363983 |
| 11.6525368439993 |
| -26.9921342607805 |
| -27.2678110217338 |
| 28.2664150632012 |
| -24.4600670941379 |
| 30.5265907982287 |
| -1.87535026738488 |
| -59.4609042829228 |
| -34.1330259247251 |
| 21.0917123780331 |
| 5.64170552774541 |
| 0.261669357247945 |
| -0.210951135725786 |
| -12.104848665174 |
| 16.1378260012963 |
| 24.3687835824152 |
| -1.97324315910852 |
| 1.57133546631679 |
| -34.3148659865592 |
| -13.1486895881506 |
| -1.25043424568515 |
| -6.90141497945603 |
| 20.2391741084254 |
| 10.730854551489 |
| -17.449542672923 |
| 1.00513735366547 |
| 21.0150590216096 |
| -14.2972303014705 |
| -12.595483988806 |
| -3.65445700411741 |
| -4.18093431452986 |
| 5.02765928249377 |
| -30.9610178978207 |
| 13.7642475054222 |
| 26.2389019397355 |
| -16.1917500012035 |
| -18.1536449024437 |
| -2.82479041497404 |
| 12.3247704884972 |
| 21.1694543318619 |
| 8.19932007885915 |
| 20.8918776881219 |
| 27.6064991178285 |
| 52.8961483278821 |
| 23.1749866587732 |
| 9.59784014922542 |
| -7.60934483080263 |
| -5.41937622990725 |
| -20.4141018323308 |
| 7.95207795707593 |
| 17.3213699081963 |
| 6.34350889098613 |
| -32.0777101436966 |
| 2.83764534651176 |
| -7.22109850786844 |
| -0.891234737999156 |
| -16.2112432227097 |
| -5.41131646394036 |
| 17.4003757790279 |
| -24.9655319825801 |
| 4.91942043951337 |
| -15.0229017906304 |
| 15.9010579705212 |
| -10.3321210747309 |
| 20.2339165183953 |
| 4.73022080517524 |
| -1.50642018435972 |
| -25.8525976830365 |
| -2.35791032544741 |
| 24.803157799779 |
| -20.3469445650019 |
| 33.5548620286487 |
| 19.7881640445713 |
| -21.8372484268077 |
| -33.9660478252519 |
| -3.14390164983142 |
| 10.5261166796006 |
| 31.2731432012503 |
| -1.14092210715923 |
| -14.7889501764084 |
| -17.4846466335335 |
| -10.0867647140535 |
| 11.2394799048223 |
| 19.1454459219592 |
| 21.9922959078087 |
| -24.264506786324 |
| -5.38981187034281 |
| 14.538309998671 |
| 15.0552044682703 |
| 31.449162468539 |
| 9.09784152882748 |
| 44.8743808228785 |
| 57.2451698944437 |
| 3.54482553624416 |
| -0.382166703757721 |
| -14.7688887440473 |
| 11.3453137686333 |
| 13.4412409419134 |
| -13.111711826441 |
| -37.5423960332179 |
| -0.660886720968548 |
| -19.0569040328201 |
| 33.1848707635813 |
| -2.56361617535622 |
| -16.4141744649904 |
| -21.0814522800645 |
| -44.3430630941051 |
| 7.30298394300937 |
| 27.8408515307626 |
| 0.709549566325179 |
| 8.63888543549083 |
| 8.07752059375387 |
| 20.034848341978 |
| 7.37371194691993 |
| -32.4220375179221 |
| -9.18527593547151 |
| -28.9017285475167 |
| 55.3210573009342 |
| -15.1174880493594 |
| -13.597335002979 |
| 47.0439598744616 |
| -15.0251033561557 |
| 7.69534332932616 |
| -16.9999664488517 |
| 34.0432991078184 |
| 12.5365950878341 |
| 36.4675202778495 |
| 14.686053382256 |
| 19.7624930234427 |
| -23.8163332530516 |
| -12.8243434720491 |
| 6.9801155990787 |
| 22.4516118423956 |
| -11.3090679187262 |
| -21.7300419054578 |
| -3.60825331217679 |
| -4.32972785950223 |
| -18.5117823343433 |
| -0.260867408083146 |
| -3.49206975047135 |
| -19.2592784586162 |
| 1.99194865092022 |
| 6.79565132635671 |
| 30.5466580922001 |
| -29.768247288908 |
| -18.0752573355993 |
| 43.9543152078699 |
| -7.80810924666302 |
| -23.3543419442958 |
| 25.9745200272168 |
| -11.7011987669365 |
| 16.5198665997602 |
| 21.8863565339139 |
| -37.0705646113441 |
| -1.23649757357098 |
| 13.6452816230423 |
| 16.3739326388338 |
| -14.9483913926886 |
| -17.0367976384777 |
| 9.55340010969878 |
| 7.56024029821065 |
| 12.506756797281 |
| -21.2340946357568 |
| 0.0995682425894541 |
| -10.7739662220101 |
| 0.237553442069695 |
| 9.17822204898648 |
| -21.7384072057101 |
| 44.2298157102732 |
| -45.0018637815474 |
| 10.1904745275197 |
| 10.3756431902951 |
| 0.116020317961883 |
| -26.6014772875012 |
| 4.37186152434757 |
| -13.545507109954 |
| 19.2154598633324 |
| -23.8791351680826 |
| 19.3157904506072 |
| -10.4939625983616 |
| 17.2918756469408 |
| -17.2848028289975 |
| -8.07553677768759 |
| 0.650682494003232 |
| -4.35902691043343 |
| -11.1091119846395 |
| -16.1858869656937 |
| -16.8102547812626 |
| -19.7849407938236 |
| 22.8452640711665 |
| 10.2915502233531 |
| 17.2821210755111 |
| 2.87184234171658 |
| -13.1841573140598 |
| -4.4177853478882 |
| -2.85926627767111 |
| 4.36726228256666 |
| -15.9179086626013 |
| 5.12904599939514 |
| -8.51402510761781 |
| -2.82482125979602 |
| 0.776715686840583 |
| 0.919939293455483 |
| -12.4464287893362 |
| 43.6116159549952 |
| 8.98625352270432 |
| -21.3810713981801 |
| 21.3655691822881 |
| 11.6146872089373 |
| -33.298610093603 |
| -23.2387634213856 |
| -11.5533368790343 |
| 25.8875425942882 |
| -10.3476326305556 |
| -17.0641129812356 |
| -2.25882781434702 |
| 48.2647114243036 |
| 1.8161073729154 |
| -32.1468363719612 |
| 4.17920603905793 |
| -3.0801375319277 |
| -6.78739439415404 |
| -11.5185955635348 |
| -0.773783018879924 |
| -1.65846383741638 |
| 9.17831619321488 |
| 12.3296310221358 |
| -14.2143024683764 |
| 6.28116094604496 |
| 22.792911515187 |
| -5.93005632959642 |
| 22.4344817202616 |
| -10.2432397030748 |
| -29.5686177347949 |
| 2.51736623106222 |
| 36.8861910233525 |
| 28.9521552799451 |
| 7.21083849733507 |
| 2.47909659896489 |
| -3.44601852929803 |
| 26.3645624841535 |
| 19.4683906161305 |
| -3.97487388102853 |
| 15.8977327852738 |
| 5.28917534751085 |
| 31.4687836240831 |
| 10.3234462616168 |
| 17.9989745646475 |
| -13.9727619067742 |
| -6.32366629424947 |
| -11.9801703044962 |
| -1.59404919527816 |
| 13.7390107863594 |
| 22.3515323022863 |
| 6.89271947733015 |
| -15.3425774020236 |
| -14.7516941493247 |
| 23.0657947952353 |
| 1.16284746384882 |
| 15.993951346828 |
| -10.9849337308995 |
| 4.31807332566622 |
| -11.1711875944285 |
| -7.49443691080555 |
| 10.6266055830639 |
| 7.1657731785084 |
| 0.87262270571431 |
| -5.72291518312197 |
| -1.15888491852248 |
| -30.6691987092117 |
| 0.0405447442578106 |
| 2.24480767706569 |
| 15.3454493318514 |
| -10.2742180937577 |
| 5.04630821287234 |
| -8.44376403992301 |
| -0.521752417322288 |
| -0.966205988923492 |
| -2.88832568660805 |
| 11.3074725247089 |
| -24.9651257593443 |
| 25.7793277609552 |
| 12.9904649533584 |
| 26.9467756947195 |
| -2.64440338940172 |
| -21.6641834330773 |
| -7.14073888935292 |
| 19.2649705724781 |
| 21.0543205091941 |
| 10.7511726951567 |
| -11.2359461467697 |
| 41.244508928546 |
| 6.07426554761259 |
| 44.2035364933558 |
| 44.0054299682916 |
| 122.652329259748 |
| -18.9520422134989 |
| 8.22483034382565 |
| -11.4119014086004 |
| 9.82354612773369 |
| -0.849114974741078 |
| -1.72078969151447 |
| -1.78109229846009 |
| -3.02995880136988 |
| 10.4168367425211 |
| -13.1756292273882 |
| 2.76721705140949 |
| 2.21476353192708 |
| -11.3797884252537 |
| -18.0830877452364 |
| -2.55690898926507 |
| -18.3384362271192 |
| 46.5711485716136 |
| 28.9962458453785 |
| 9.09929786298429 |
| -26.9676288171707 |
| 8.18866054019457 |
| 18.7904380084015 |
| -7.6285916319923 |
| -19.8898667524893 |
| 33.7040522500091 |
| -18.4298519217538 |
| -46.5401380877515 |
| 8.19096511000863 |
| 34.6615247123137 |
| -27.0044452365947 |
| 17.642488113334 |
| -12.1230128603138 |
| 1.24444508243179 |
| -1.49593892592591 |
| -44.1266557845058 |
| 11.9980822511494 |
| -13.8307126922548 |
| 13.9088557132238 |
| -9.46272826389769 |
| 12.3630141133101 |
| -28.5383627662677 |
| 40.7420272429219 |
| -20.1003198728861 |
| -2.67685868286288 |
| -9.04218324558739 |
| -0.971457918286657 |
| 26.0268458776562 |
