Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.174781716156648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 38.683 | 68.897 | -30.214 |
3 | 44.72 | 63.616145228043 | -18.896145228043 |
4 | 39.525 | 60.3134445363404 | -20.7884445363404 |
5 | 45.315 | 56.6800045240515 | -11.3650045240515 |
6 | 50.38 | 54.6936095292097 | -4.31360952920972 |
7 | 40.6 | 53.9396694528648 | -13.3396694528648 |
8 | 36.279 | 51.6081391329307 | -15.3291391329306 |
9 | 42.438 | 48.928885888073 | -6.490885888073 |
10 | 38.064 | 47.7943977131786 | -9.73039771317863 |
11 | 31.879 | 46.0937021019825 | -14.2147021019825 |
12 | 11.379 | 43.6092320739425 | -32.2302320739425 |
13 | 70.249 | 37.9759767999318 | 32.2730232000682 |
14 | 39.253 | 43.616711180403 | -4.36371118040303 |
15 | 47.06 | 42.8540142514802 | 4.20598574851977 |
16 | 41.697 | 43.5891436587369 | -1.89214365873693 |
17 | 38.708 | 43.258431542848 | -4.55043154284797 |
18 | 49.267 | 42.4630993085357 | 6.80390069146434 |
19 | 39.018 | 43.6522967479492 | -4.63429674794921 |
20 | 32.228 | 42.8423064091635 | -10.6143064091635 |
21 | 40.87 | 40.9871197191574 | -0.117119719157365 |
22 | 39.383 | 40.9666493336473 | -1.58364933364725 |
23 | 34.571 | 40.6898563853221 | -6.11885638532205 |
24 | 12.066 | 39.6203921653794 | -27.5543921653794 |
25 | 70.938 | 34.8043882150611 | 36.1336117849389 |
26 | 34.077 | 41.1198828937708 | -7.04288289377081 |
27 | 45.409 | 39.8889157349072 | 5.52008426509276 |
28 | 40.809 | 40.8537255360895 | -0.0447255360894729 |
29 | 37.013 | 40.8459083301357 | -3.83290833013573 |
30 | 44.953 | 40.1759860343235 | 4.77701396567651 |
31 | 37.848 | 41.0109207333487 | -3.16292073334871 |
32 | 32.745 | 40.4581000195066 | -7.71310001950658 |
33 | 43.412 | 39.1099911612093 | 4.30200883879066 |
34 | 34.931 | 39.8619036489742 | -4.93090364897424 |
35 | 33.008 | 39.0000718470034 | -5.99207184700344 |
36 | 8.62 | 37.9527672462502 | -29.3327672462502 |
37 | 68.906 | 32.8259358473271 | 36.0800641526729 |
38 | 39.556 | 39.1320713789732 | 0.423928621026761 |
39 | 50.669 | 39.2061663508842 | 11.4628336491158 |
40 | 36.432 | 41.2096600880949 | -4.77766008809485 |
41 | 40.891 | 40.3746124586845 | 0.516387541315488 |
42 | 48.428 | 40.4648675593575 | 7.96313244064245 |
43 | 36.222 | 41.8566775133157 | -5.63467751331571 |
44 | 33.425 | 40.8718389075491 | -7.44683890754911 |
45 | 39.401 | 39.5702676233456 | -0.169267623345576 |
46 | 37.967 | 39.5406827376475 | -1.57368273764748 |
47 | 34.801 | 39.2656317680754 | -4.46463176807536 |
48 | 12.657 | 38.4852957656437 | -25.8282957656437 |
49 | 69.116 | 33.970981906323 | 35.145018093677 |
50 | 41.519 | 40.1136884830923 | 1.4053115169077 |
51 | 51.321 | 40.3593112417521 | 10.9616887582479 |
52 | 38.529 | 42.2752140148937 | -3.74621401489373 |
53 | 41.547 | 41.6204443002805 | -0.0734443002805207 |
54 | 52.073 | 41.6076075794356 | 10.4653924205644 |
55 | 38.401 | 43.4367668269546 | -5.03576682695459 |
56 | 40.898 | 42.5566068587747 | -1.65860685877475 |
57 | 40.439 | 42.2667127055689 | -1.82771270556891 |
58 | 41.888 | 41.9472619422483 | -0.0592619422482699 |
59 | 37.898 | 41.9369040382793 | -4.03890403827933 |
60 | 8.771 | 41.2309774590769 | -32.4599774590769 |
61 | 68.184 | 35.5575668923733 | 32.6264331076267 |
62 | 50.53 | 41.2600708629944 | 9.26992913700563 |
63 | 47.221 | 42.8802849862107 | 4.34071501378926 |
64 | 41.756 | 43.6389626056677 | -1.88296260566775 |
65 | 45.633 | 43.3098551699903 | 2.32314483000965 |
66 | 48.138 | 43.7158984102599 | 4.42210158974012 |
67 | 39.486 | 44.4888009151337 | -5.0028009151337 |
68 | 39.341 | 43.6144027855966 | -4.27340278559658 |
69 | 41.117 | 42.8674901129014 | -1.75049011290141 |
70 | 41.629 | 42.5615364468533 | -0.932536446853256 |
71 | 29.722 | 42.3985461262936 | -12.6765461262936 |
72 | 7.054 | 40.1829176394011 | -33.1289176394011 |
73 | 56.676 | 34.3925885599743 | 22.2834114400257 |
74 | 34.87 | 38.2873214532867 | -3.4173214532867 |
75 | 35.117 | 37.6900361450223 | -2.57303614502231 |
76 | 30.169 | 37.2403164718622 | -7.07131647186222 |
77 | 30.936 | 36.0043796434234 | -5.06837964342337 |
78 | 35.699 | 35.1185195512124 | 0.58048044878759 |
79 | 33.228 | 35.2199769202469 | -1.99197692024688 |
80 | 27.733 | 34.8718157755817 | -7.1388157755817 |
81 | 33.666 | 33.6240813029994 | 0.041918697000618 |
82 | 35.429 | 33.6314079248002 | 1.7975920751998 |
83 | 27.438 | 33.9455941526532 | -6.50759415265322 |
84 | 8.17 | 32.8081856786015 | -24.6381856786015 |
85 | 63.41 | 28.5018813027094 | 34.9081186972906 |
86 | 38.04 | 34.6031821964218 | 3.43681780357817 |
87 | 45.389 | 35.2038751102489 | 10.1851248897511 |
88 | 37.353 | 36.9840487177494 | 0.368951282250571 |
89 | 37.024 | 37.0485346560394 | -0.0245346560393784 |
90 | 50.957 | 37.0442464467515 | 13.9127535532485 |
91 | 37.994 | 39.4759413892528 | -1.48194138925278 |
92 | 36.454 | 39.2169251299956 | -2.76292512999562 |
93 | 46.08 | 38.7340163341627 | 7.34598366583734 |
94 | 43.373 | 40.0179599661364 | 3.35504003386359 |
95 | 37.395 | 40.6043596210293 | -3.20935962102934 |
96 | 10.963 | 40.043422238702 | -29.080422238702 |
97 | 76.058 | 34.9606961332617 | 41.0973038667383 |
98 | 50.179 | 42.1437534325015 | 8.03524656749853 |
99 | 57.452 | 43.5481676173107 | 13.9038323826893 |
100 | 47.568 | 45.9783033023115 | 1.58969669768849 |
101 | 50.05 | 46.2561532193021 | 3.79384678069794 |
102 | 50.856 | 46.9192482704678 | 3.93675172953218 |
103 | 41.992 | 47.6073204938381 | -5.61532049383811 |
104 | 39.284 | 46.6258651411555 | -7.34186514115549 |
105 | 44.521 | 45.3426413519937 | -0.821641351993655 |
106 | 43.832 | 45.1990334664269 | -1.36703346642693 |
107 | 41.153 | 44.9601010111213 | -3.80710101112126 |
108 | 17.1 | 44.2946893628158 | -27.1946893628158 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
109 | 39.5415548856359 | 11.4007528523668 | 67.682356918905 |
110 | 39.5415548856359 | 10.9741546112169 | 68.1089551600549 |
111 | 39.5415548856359 | 10.5538337299101 | 68.5292760413616 |
112 | 39.5415548856359 | 10.1395209905914 | 68.9435887806804 |
113 | 39.5415548856359 | 9.73096588560808 | 69.3521438856637 |
114 | 39.5415548856359 | 9.327934846127 | 69.7551749251448 |
115 | 39.5415548856359 | 8.9302096807115 | 70.1529000905603 |
116 | 39.5415548856359 | 8.53758619422024 | 70.5455235770515 |
117 | 39.5415548856359 | 8.14987296221044 | 70.9332368090613 |
118 | 39.5415548856359 | 7.76689023996654 | 71.3162195313052 |
119 | 39.5415548856359 | 7.38846898850956 | 71.6946407827622 |
120 | 39.5415548856359 | 7.01445000261229 | 72.0686597686595 |