| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.331578763626859 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.5487315743831 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5731 | 5653.40892094017 | 77.5910790598309 |
| 14 | 5040 | 4987.0873782667 | 52.9126217332951 |
| 15 | 6102 | 6092.79131655802 | 9.20868344197697 |
| 16 | 4904 | 4891.71229035841 | 12.287709641585 |
| 17 | 5369 | 5360.82087052591 | 8.17912947408604 |
| 18 | 5578 | 5641.35879942788 | -63.3587994278796 |
| 19 | 4619 | 4341.21793697877 | 277.782063021229 |
| 20 | 4731 | 5149.02547325647 | -418.025473256471 |
| 21 | 5011 | 5202.49300693296 | -191.493006932962 |
| 22 | 5299 | 4658.57389571434 | 640.426104285655 |
| 23 | 4146 | 4632.62649483115 | -486.62649483115 |
| 24 | 4625 | 5737.51405325704 | -1112.51405325704 |
| 25 | 4736 | 5385.99640928179 | -649.996409281795 |
| 26 | 4219 | 4469.37064751465 | -250.370647514646 |
| 27 | 5116 | 5458.48239616464 | -342.482396164643 |
| 28 | 4205 | 4141.91941365538 | 63.0805863446185 |
| 29 | 4121 | 4626.36287228108 | -505.36287228108 |
| 30 | 5103 | 4710.38222308929 | 392.617776910713 |
| 31 | 4300 | 3686.55846468363 | 613.441535316365 |
| 32 | 4578 | 4350.45259554648 | 227.547404453525 |
| 33 | 3809 | 4701.06683313576 | -892.066833135762 |
| 34 | 5657 | 4229.98680280311 | 1427.01319719689 |
| 35 | 4248 | 4051.47030043219 | 196.52969956781 |
| 36 | 3830 | 5153.31250470923 | -1323.31250470923 |
| 37 | 4736 | 4901.54256714304 | -165.542567143045 |
| 38 | 4839 | 4292.12768180586 | 546.872318194144 |
| 39 | 4411 | 5511.80316669759 | -1100.80316669759 |
| 40 | 4570 | 4092.55106768896 | 477.448932311041 |
| 41 | 4104 | 4505.89439706453 | -401.894397064531 |
| 42 | 4801 | 4953.58648536845 | -152.586485368453 |
| 43 | 3953 | 3829.97915724623 | 123.020842753765 |
| 44 | 3828 | 4189.72047106948 | -361.720471069481 |
| 45 | 4440 | 3934.28958859268 | 505.710411407323 |
| 46 | 4026 | 4777.28388156233 | -751.283881562334 |
| 47 | 4109 | 3425.16886790373 | 683.83113209627 |
| 48 | 4785 | 4131.13632278602 | 653.863677213976 |
| 49 | 3224 | 4959.60731960524 | -1735.60731960524 |
| 50 | 3552 | 4090.8945702875 | -538.894570287499 |
| 51 | 3940 | 4346.21207559386 | -406.212075593863 |
| 52 | 3913 | 3736.14899303674 | 176.85100696326 |
| 53 | 3681 | 3727.29151324843 | -46.2915132484268 |
| 54 | 4309 | 4384.33607865285 | -75.3360786528483 |
| 55 | 3830 | 3387.43165829947 | 442.568341700532 |
| 56 | 4143 | 3675.33285751985 | 467.667142480148 |
| 57 | 4087 | 4013.06892225335 | 73.9310777466535 |
| 58 | 3818 | 4251.84916726029 | -433.849167260291 |
| 59 | 3380 | 3531.36575550236 | -151.365755502357 |
| 60 | 3430 | 3949.40808091127 | -519.408080911274 |
| 61 | 3458 | 3512.42773723679 | -54.4277372367887 |
| 62 | 3970 | 3640.09332971917 | 329.906670280832 |
| 63 | 5260 | 4232.15267076836 | 1027.84732923164 |
| 64 | 5024 | 4311.45134748923 | 712.548652510766 |
| 65 | 5634 | 4398.37476084213 | 1235.62523915787 |
| 66 | 6549 | 5469.82262092774 | 1079.17737907226 |
| 67 | 4676 | 5045.68931617388 | -369.689316173875 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 68 | 5073.46895991355 | 3852.39255530474 | 6294.54536452237 |
| 69 | 5111.72050701431 | 3825.26886266347 | 6398.17215136514 |
| 70 | 5139.7411898559 | 3791.07960123793 | 6488.40277847387 |
| 71 | 4666.72329834118 | 3258.5974772676 | 6074.84911941475 |
| 72 | 4999.96331738101 | 3534.78463362442 | 6465.1420011376 |
| 73 | 4905.75493775494 | 3385.66322253007 | 6425.8466529798 |
| 74 | 5192.43526088614 | 3619.34623922975 | 6765.52428254252 |
| 75 | 5931.09790924914 | 4306.73978450681 | 7555.45603399147 |
| 76 | 5553.93778077576 | 3879.87996672722 | 7227.99559482431 |
| 77 | 5596.45123060242 | 3874.12727381102 | 7318.77518739382 |
| 78 | 6200.80945510887 | 4431.53557594314 | 7970.08333427461 |
| 79 | 4887.42296292481 | 3072.41323654351 | 6702.43268930612 |
