| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.89023521238114 |
| beta | 0.216268546344721 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 7678 | 7043.34054487179 | 634.659455128206 |
| 14 | 7491 | 7521.41648576916 | -30.4164857691576 |
| 15 | 7816 | 7891.47898962704 | -75.4789896270449 |
| 16 | 7631 | 7677.60163866626 | -46.6016386662632 |
| 17 | 8395 | 8388.91804802383 | 6.08195197617351 |
| 18 | 8578 | 8533.63953567477 | 44.3604643252347 |
| 19 | 8950 | 9101.4786175606 | -151.478617560597 |
| 20 | 9450 | 9063.31069344374 | 386.689306556256 |
| 21 | 9501 | 9741.89638284903 | -240.896382849029 |
| 22 | 10083 | 9770.36177554566 | 312.638224454337 |
| 23 | 10544 | 10265.1286986327 | 278.871301367342 |
| 24 | 11299 | 11151.4428413138 | 147.557158686237 |
| 25 | 12049 | 11639.7622652918 | 409.237734708211 |
| 26 | 12860 | 12044.4975960946 | 815.502403905448 |
| 27 | 13389 | 13525.884926987 | -136.884926987013 |
| 28 | 13796 | 13611.893407966 | 184.106592034026 |
| 29 | 14505 | 14930.1772814329 | -425.177281432911 |
| 30 | 14727 | 15007.9480304085 | -280.948030408479 |
| 31 | 14646 | 15514.8279800358 | -868.82798003578 |
| 32 | 14861 | 15009.1492783349 | -148.149278334888 |
| 33 | 15012 | 15151.7706071488 | -139.770607148801 |
| 34 | 15421 | 15359.5446583763 | 61.4553416236686 |
| 35 | 15227 | 15607.1574296862 | -380.15742968622 |
| 36 | 15124 | 15745.6487160372 | -621.648716037189 |
| 37 | 14953 | 15283.1035814942 | -330.103581494184 |
| 38 | 15039 | 14637.0857862514 | 401.91421374864 |
| 39 | 15128 | 15128.9566635386 | -0.95666353857996 |
| 40 | 15221 | 14880.5899983232 | 340.410001676762 |
| 41 | 14876 | 15810.6189932773 | -934.618993277341 |
| 42 | 14517 | 14892.0915729519 | -375.091572951882 |
| 43 | 14609 | 14673.9011517991 | -64.9011517990875 |
| 44 | 14735 | 14541.0595410125 | 193.940458987487 |
| 45 | 14574 | 14633.0513529183 | -59.0513529182681 |
| 46 | 14636 | 14594.2233881296 | 41.776611870413 |
| 47 | 15104 | 14431.5065238606 | 672.493476139392 |
| 48 | 14393 | 15338.9268154182 | -945.926815418219 |
| 49 | 13919 | 14415.5954081985 | -496.595408198526 |
| 50 | 13751 | 13465.5519736682 | 285.448026331813 |
| 51 | 13628 | 13550.9377626337 | 77.0622373662591 |
| 52 | 13792 | 13165.9355280557 | 626.064471944284 |
| 53 | 13892 | 14021.7471420257 | -129.74714202571 |
| 54 | 14024 | 13847.5595085896 | 176.44049141038 |
| 55 | 13908 | 14226.9948521486 | -318.994852148637 |
| 56 | 13920 | 13920.0256626222 | -0.0256626222071645 |
| 57 | 13897 | 13797.8920234762 | 99.107976523841 |
| 58 | 13759 | 13927.7004319547 | -168.70043195469 |
| 59 | 13323 | 13623.0868844207 | -300.086884420691 |
| 60 | 13097 | 13276.0324469236 | -179.032446923571 |
| 61 | 12758 | 13021.3843686899 | -263.384368689873 |
| 62 | 12806 | 12346.3407287894 | 459.65927121055 |
| 63 | 12673 | 12579.0292335636 | 93.9707664364087 |
| 64 | 12500 | 12287.6832307206 | 212.316769279352 |
| 65 | 12720 | 12630.8843259416 | 89.1156740584138 |
| 66 | 12749 | 12665.966085798 | 83.033914201993 |
| 67 | 12794 | 12870.7040805105 | -76.7040805105044 |
| 68 | 12544 | 12823.9282954403 | -279.928295440257 |
| 69 | 12088 | 12419.0932829429 | -331.093282942898 |
| 70 | 12258 | 12009.2952774957 | 248.704722504262 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 71 | 12014.981681313 | 11293.7454386308 | 12736.2179239952 |
| 72 | 11959.2711512292 | 10896.241291675 | 13022.3010107835 |
| 73 | 11900.1227668123 | 10494.4043775004 | 13305.8411561241 |
| 74 | 11635.004833724 | 9875.23758328263 | 13394.7720841654 |
| 75 | 11425.9375421882 | 9297.36849842567 | 13554.5065859508 |
| 76 | 11053.4222917345 | 8540.12081363939 | 13566.7237698296 |
| 77 | 11142.7076733398 | 8228.43604089895 | 14056.9793057807 |
| 78 | 11029.24982211 | 7697.84552476655 | 14360.6541194534 |
| 79 | 11058.0098493825 | 7293.56107318003 | 14822.458625585 |
| 80 | 10987.4550558487 | 6774.3798047687 | 15200.5303069287 |
| 81 | 10810.343695641 | 6133.42120591341 | 15487.2661853687 |
| 82 | 10806.8210833892 | 5651.19878978046 | 15962.4433769979 |
