| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.653615272491929 |
| beta | 0.0529317928553807 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 462824 | 558671.733707265 | -95847.733707265 |
| 14 | 399492 | 431689.970570098 | -32197.9705700981 |
| 15 | 347630 | 356235.210613738 | -8605.21061373776 |
| 16 | 347630 | 344263.449170728 | 3366.55082927167 |
| 17 | 546859 | 536823.211499513 | 10035.7885004871 |
| 18 | 567562 | 552061.79788395 | 15500.2021160501 |
| 19 | 409838 | 400070.811059278 | 9767.18894072168 |
| 20 | 231412 | 295363.638310469 | -63951.6383104689 |
| 21 | 325803 | 259280.344232009 | 66522.6557679914 |
| 22 | 325803 | 301299.319295753 | 24503.680704247 |
| 23 | 399492 | 326622.5133893 | 72869.4866107003 |
| 24 | 442021 | 396682.571240318 | 45338.4287596825 |
| 25 | 431664 | 330765.16798842 | 100898.83201158 |
| 26 | 325803 | 362870.606234644 | -37067.6062346441 |
| 27 | 378790 | 300680.010201647 | 78109.9897983534 |
| 28 | 357986 | 360808.412101891 | -2822.41210189089 |
| 29 | 536412 | 562693.924757772 | -26281.9247577717 |
| 30 | 493873 | 565891.832512064 | -72018.8325120637 |
| 31 | 325803 | 361487.68530039 | -35684.6853003898 |
| 32 | 200263 | 206741.343205462 | -6478.34320546151 |
| 33 | 315447 | 260610.126292225 | 54836.8737077754 |
| 34 | 347630 | 287224.422094155 | 60405.5779058452 |
| 35 | 378790 | 360796.977551395 | 17993.0224486051 |
| 36 | 420195 | 391584.196316939 | 28610.803683061 |
| 37 | 336150 | 339531.504829378 | -3381.50482937793 |
| 38 | 263595 | 257633.333269357 | 5961.66673064331 |
| 39 | 294755 | 266896.850489069 | 27858.1495109314 |
| 40 | 305101 | 267841.332853226 | 37259.6671467735 |
| 41 | 577918 | 490881.007312382 | 87036.9926876178 |
| 42 | 577918 | 559305.741177255 | 18612.2588227447 |
| 43 | 420195 | 436863.036865004 | -16668.0368650044 |
| 44 | 399492 | 315458.800748732 | 84033.1992512684 |
| 45 | 462824 | 463653.298693989 | -829.298693989054 |
| 46 | 431664 | 467813.6976716 | -36149.6976715997 |
| 47 | 515709 | 472246.112846158 | 43462.8871538417 |
| 48 | 620447 | 532900.766998095 | 87546.2330019053 |
| 49 | 641250 | 519868.621415624 | 121381.378584376 |
| 50 | 493873 | 538651.22910481 | -44778.2291048102 |
| 51 | 452367 | 536477.054370399 | -84110.0543703993 |
| 52 | 409838 | 477762.255327648 | -67924.2553276478 |
| 53 | 694135 | 655923.470406271 | 38211.5295937294 |
| 54 | 714939 | 673673.890613643 | 41265.1093863568 |
| 55 | 661953 | 559540.638598795 | 102412.361401205 |
| 56 | 714939 | 560694.126385505 | 154244.873614495 |
| 57 | 704481 | 737657.675763943 | -33176.6757639428 |
| 58 | 620447 | 719594.467159778 | -99147.4671597781 |
| 59 | 714939 | 719401.204828258 | -4462.20482825767 |
| 60 | 819676 | 771317.062168383 | 48358.9378316172 |
| 61 | 862205 | 750351.693205281 | 111853.306794719 |
| 62 | 735641 | 710982.027802119 | 24658.972197881 |
| 63 | 651596 | 748602.016132604 | -97006.0161326036 |
| 64 | 714939 | 694651.462558013 | 20287.5374419868 |
| 65 | 987746 | 977871.662865058 | 9874.33713494195 |
| 66 | 1071790 | 987816.387380759 | 83973.6126192407 |
| 67 | 1051088 | 933914.33953695 | 117173.66046305 |
| 68 | 1092483 | 974316.525497155 | 118166.474502845 |
| 69 | 1082137 | 1073177.0115525 | 8959.988447499 |
| 70 | 977399 | 1071659.79062202 | -94260.7906220192 |
| 71 | 1155825 | 1119483.22299943 | 36341.7770005683 |
| 72 | 1198354 | 1229802.4791591 | -31448.4791590972 |
| 73 | 1260562 | 1189342.9998381 | 71219.0001619034 |
| 74 | 1071790 | 1102481.27550392 | -30691.2755039206 |
| 75 | 998102 | 1069135.57898985 | -71033.5789898504 |
| 76 | 1082137 | 1081043.2479492 | 1093.75205080328 |
| 77 | 1282389 | 1355700.62086235 | -73311.6208623494 |
| 78 | 1460814 | 1341652.10061132 | 119161.899388679 |
| 79 | 1418286 | 1328178.56457852 | 90107.4354214796 |
| 80 | 1418286 | 1356226.25779222 | 62059.7422077821 |
| 81 | 1439089 | 1383638.45130421 | 55450.5486957948 |
| 82 | 1366423 | 1381413.88786069 | -14990.8878606949 |
| 83 | 1555307 | 1533690.3959049 | 21616.6040951016 |
| 84 | 1555307 | 1617796.41930872 | -62489.4193087157 |
| 85 | 1523124 | 1598429.50455274 | -75305.5045527376 |
| 86 | 1344597 | 1381246.60092359 | -36649.6009235887 |
| 87 | 1376780 | 1330575.9916117 | 46204.0083882969 |
| 88 | 1397583 | 1448695.31371276 | -51112.3137127643 |
| 89 | 1534503 | 1666250.51478733 | -131747.514787332 |
| 90 | 1712929 | 1681448.97628211 | 31480.0237178891 |
| 91 | 1586355 | 1598339.35889205 | -11984.3588920489 |
| 92 | 1649698 | 1544149.0851734 | 105548.914826602 |
| 93 | 1596712 | 1593407.82013347 | 3304.17986652721 |
| 94 | 1565653 | 1526606.32414788 | 39046.6758521234 |
| 95 | 1807421 | 1722658.99270172 | 84762.0072982791 |
| 96 | 1754435 | 1816865.5247771 | -62430.5247770955 |
| 97 | 1680746 | 1791060.59651607 | -110314.59651607 |
| 98 | 1576009 | 1561136.60813108 | 14872.391868921 |
| 99 | 1680746 | 1571374.87068257 | 109371.129317428 |
| 100 | 1733732 | 1697791.78031438 | 35940.2196856181 |
| 101 | 1796963 | 1948046.28381445 | -151083.283814455 |
| 102 | 1880998 | 2010208.39690715 | -129210.396907149 |
| 103 | 1796963 | 1804516.53620369 | -7553.53620368824 |
| 104 | 1848826 | 1791590.20822849 | 57235.7917715057 |
| 105 | 1785585 | 1769839.40433289 | 15745.5956671124 |
| 106 | 1775239 | 1719965.56936503 | 55273.4306349694 |
| 107 | 2037699 | 1939435.88969346 | 98263.1103065431 |
| 108 | 2059525 | 1988925.30621763 | 70599.6937823654 |
| 109 | 1975491 | 2035530.70203437 | -60039.7020343684 |
| 110 | 1828123 | 1885615.42797314 | -57492.4279731382 |
| 111 | 1953664 | 1882569.66540047 | 71094.3345995336 |
| 112 | 2006549 | 1958490.47534724 | 48058.5246527561 |
| 113 | 2069882 | 2152260.40363999 | -82378.4036399946 |
| 114 | 2164273 | 2269659.29524517 | -105386.295245171 |
| 115 | 2069882 | 2125257.33846745 | -55375.3384674527 |
| 116 | 2143570 | 2105439.52033051 | 38130.4796694946 |
| 117 | 2111388 | 2058092.17180547 | 53295.82819453 |
| 118 | 1996193 | 2049015.2565196 | -52822.2565195966 |
| 119 | 2237951 | 2211545.43964616 | 26405.5603538356 |
| 120 | 2237951 | 2200821.30773405 | 37129.6922659529 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 2175476.57393217 | 2046785.66303849 | 2304167.48482585 |
| 122 | 2062941.56423774 | 1906719.27004299 | 2219163.85843249 |
| 123 | 2141258.349838 | 1959439.92976176 | 2323076.76991425 |
| 124 | 2159516.03993394 | 1953218.69401107 | 2365813.38585681 |
| 125 | 2271814.61632579 | 2041712.41570096 | 2501916.81695062 |
| 126 | 2433059.55001329 | 2179558.33180468 | 2686560.76822191 |
| 127 | 2376480.61118856 | 2099811.5381086 | 2653149.68426853 |
| 128 | 2428779.66370981 | 2129054.1322799 | 2728505.19513971 |
| 129 | 2363977.21154161 | 2041221.31528128 | 2686733.10780194 |
| 130 | 2283678.28295861 | 1937855.57476833 | 2629500.99114888 |
| 131 | 2510375.33635989 | 2141402.47646338 | 2879348.1962564 |
| 132 | 2487391.37944272 | 2095149.24446384 | 2879633.51442159 |
