| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.989110454997596 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 521.41 | 525.22 | -3.81000000000006 |
| 4 | 1601.93 | 518.911489166459 | 1083.01851083354 |
| 5 | 1577.49 | 1587.59642118784 | -10.1064211878411 |
| 6 | 1551.43 | 1575.06005432834 | -23.6300543283382 |
| 7 | 1551.43 | 1549.14732054002 | 2.28267945998232 |
| 8 | 1516.88 | 1548.86514265929 | -31.9851426592945 |
| 9 | 1485.95 | 1514.6883036504 | -28.7383036503968 |
| 10 | 1438.22 | 1483.72294705089 | -45.5029470508939 |
| 11 | 1385.06 | 1436.17550638965 | -51.1155063896529 |
| 12 | 1329.49 | 1383.07662460715 | -53.5866246071507 |
| 13 | 1329.49 | 1327.53353396019 | 1.95646603981345 |
| 14 | 1276.16 | 1326.92869497501 | -50.7686949750137 |
| 15 | 1242.34 | 1274.17284798864 | -31.8328479886441 |
| 16 | 1181.59 | 1240.14664523073 | -58.5566452307271 |
| 17 | 1160.21 | 1179.68765522343 | -19.4776552234298 |
| 18 | 1135.18 | 1157.8821028031 | -22.702102803097 |
| 19 | 1135.18 | 1132.88721557012 | 2.29278442987652 |
| 20 | 1084.96 | 1132.61503262077 | -47.65503262077 |
| 21 | 1077.35 | 1082.93894162232 | -5.58894162231513 |
| 22 | 1061.13 | 1074.87086103131 | -13.7408610313119 |
| 23 | 1029.98 | 1058.73963172457 | -28.7596317245723 |
| 24 | 1013.08 | 1027.75317930392 | -14.6731793039172 |
| 25 | 1013.08 | 1010.69978424636 | 2.38021575364155 |
| 26 | 996.04 | 1010.51408053344 | -14.4740805334354 |
| 27 | 975.02 | 993.657616151337 | -18.6376161513373 |
| 28 | 951.89 | 972.682955159818 | -20.7929551598176 |
| 29 | 944.4 | 949.576425820946 | -5.17642582094584 |
| 30 | 932.47 | 941.916368921929 | -9.44636892192875 |
| 31 | 932.47 | 930.032866659485 | 2.43713334051529 |
| 32 | 920.44 | 929.903460726812 | -9.4634607268116 |
| 33 | 900.18 | 918.003052781463 | -17.8230527814633 |
| 34 | 886.9 | 897.834084935344 | -10.934084935344 |
| 35 | 869.74 | 884.479067209964 | -14.7390672099635 |
| 36 | 859.03 | 867.360501735676 | -8.33050173567642 |
| 37 | 859.03 | 856.580715373543 | 2.44928462645669 |
| 38 | 844.99 | 856.463328404836 | -11.4733284048365 |
| 39 | 834.82 | 842.574939325992 | -7.75493932599181 |
| 40 | 825.62 | 832.364447760781 | -6.74444776078144 |
| 41 | 816.92 | 823.153443967407 | -6.23344396740742 |
| 42 | 813.21 | 814.447879368603 | -1.23787936860299 |
| 43 | 813.21 | 810.683479943092 | 2.526520056908 |
| 44 | 811.03 | 810.642487346141 | 0.387512653859062 |
| 45 | 804.16 | 808.485780163517 | -4.32578016351681 |
| 46 | 788.62 | 801.667105777761 | -13.0471057777611 |
| 47 | 778.76 | 786.222077045518 | -7.46207704551807 |
| 48 | 765.91 | 776.301258623799 | -10.3912586237986 |
| 49 | 765.91 | 763.483156078416 | 2.42684392158446 |
| 50 | 753.85 | 763.343572773902 | -9.49357277390209 |
| 51 | 742.22 | 751.413380687955 | -9.19338068795503 |
| 52 | 732.11 | 739.780111732726 | -7.67011173272579 |
| 53 | 729.94 | 729.653524026887 | 0.286475973113056 |
| 54 | 731.22 | 727.396880406999 | 3.82311959300125 |
| 55 | 731.22 | 728.638367967142 | 2.58163203285756 |
| 56 | 729.11 | 728.651887201799 | 0.458112798201455 |
| 57 | 726.94 | 726.565011360068 | 0.374988639932212 |
| 58 | 720.52 | 724.39591654433 | -3.87591654433015 |
| 59 | 709.36 | 718.022206967635 | -8.66220696763503 |
| 60 | 703.21 | 706.914327492594 | -3.70432749259419 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 700.710338440934 | 416.85409497733 | 984.566581904538 |
| 62 | 698.170338440934 | 298.916719544997 | 1097.42395733687 |
| 63 | 695.630338440934 | 207.539632270723 | 1183.72104461115 |
| 64 | 693.090338440934 | 130.008086280587 | 1256.17259060128 |
| 65 | 690.550338440934 | 61.3518737684575 | 1319.74880311341 |
| 66 | 688.010338440934 | -0.988785792496856 | 1377.00946267437 |
| 67 | 685.470338440934 | -58.5383163761105 | 1429.47899325798 |
| 68 | 682.930338440935 | -112.29162031706 | 1478.15229719893 |
| 69 | 680.390338440935 | -162.940586486603 | 1523.72126336847 |
| 70 | 677.850338440935 | -210.989430126701 | 1566.69010700857 |
| 71 | 675.310338440935 | -256.819062144414 | 1607.43973902628 |
| 72 | 672.770338440935 | -300.725580751249 | 1646.26625763312 |
