| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 617 | 617 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 614 | 616.06229718742 | -0.0182618229066778 | -1.59963031932756 | -0.0444630198027383 |
| 3 | 647 | 628.648201105941 | 0.999466336125826 | 15.3056019375845 | 0.360524437139486 |
| 4 | 580 | 613.385539574209 | -0.249101846606678 | -28.9611012149357 | -0.526273130782507 |
| 5 | 614 | 610.236483094035 | -0.427846117979071 | 4.71093268440618 | -0.107821018746853 |
| 6 | 636 | 617.732513953304 | -0.0513283752496408 | 15.4154200013462 | 0.315667117200098 |
| 7 | 388 | 546.585430367207 | -2.75846109123147 | -131.902292035632 | -2.91356333360034 |
| 8 | 356 | 466.57004743301 | -5.29342155448544 | -81.0841276039254 | -3.20006524017127 |
| 9 | 639 | 498.598495079391 | -4.16562499972719 | 126.068947075042 | 1.55147061089406 |
| 10 | 753 | 587.517423359305 | -1.46242717087671 | 129.670340705299 | 3.87266379145731 |
| 11 | 611 | 619.376424879424 | -0.512793109040225 | -21.1986328123163 | 1.38606790653778 |
| 12 | 639 | 634.404394469669 | -0.0746658778742414 | -1.3829530083788 | 0.646192003721311 |
| 13 | 630 | 637.441574441545 | -0.145902342459996 | -8.71908696216407 | 0.143794742003424 |
| 14 | 586 | 625.134337920571 | -0.189400174969176 | -34.4647736226262 | -0.52332734584932 |
| 15 | 695 | 635.800992530542 | 0.11771994180807 | 55.5634416345758 | 0.418181552681014 |
| 16 | 552 | 618.45173102732 | -0.548935575713281 | -60.8714438239431 | -0.655595327010974 |
| 17 | 619 | 606.021541917903 | -1.01167568647125 | 16.8665133379006 | -0.457764247789411 |
| 18 | 681 | 600.357087840604 | -1.17779086999722 | 82.2254016175526 | -0.185132367080547 |
| 19 | 421 | 572.290915543542 | -2.02748376981393 | -141.87928984216 | -1.09367031344713 |
| 20 | 307 | 523.447305824604 | -3.34309402321698 | -199.782492733297 | -1.92728426099601 |
| 21 | 754 | 561.716390101623 | -2.28411159145898 | 177.339197340729 | 1.72297257579309 |
| 22 | 690 | 577.533724459393 | -1.86451583314466 | 105.935431697107 | 0.751238066463147 |
| 23 | 644 | 610.477500489468 | -1.15266811430971 | 20.9259839351577 | 1.44576884957914 |
| 24 | 643 | 628.755812238723 | -0.837113659985623 | 7.17969691853946 | 0.809200690708658 |
| 25 | 608 | 627.403679631098 | -0.842091449320679 | -19.2138463019572 | -0.0217542197044055 |
| 26 | 651 | 644.221066272025 | -0.598379080893737 | 0.376334916440151 | 0.734642303727645 |
| 27 | 691 | 640.24841340272 | -0.671083712026675 | 51.9264330766228 | -0.135794636901696 |
| 28 | 627 | 649.223506602987 | -0.408850126895306 | -25.4901616069353 | 0.381002417826397 |
| 29 | 634 | 636.178235541398 | -0.782057220101294 | 2.09146919273977 | -0.500310721184709 |
| 30 | 731 | 628.061253467058 | -0.997671621598992 | 105.449070338435 | -0.294117414964036 |
| 31 | 475 | 617.245336056542 | -1.27163272768834 | -138.83319916355 | -0.398795255190011 |
| 32 | 337 | 601.207186066301 | -1.65411498775878 | -259.013972561836 | -0.605209716060285 |
| 33 | 803 | 611.301411514829 | -1.37440665647852 | 187.53567528978 | 0.483912792396615 |
| 34 | 722 | 623.379038449789 | -1.08231479577666 | 93.8343101624944 | 0.555294193381863 |
| 35 | 590 | 614.172295471856 | -1.24154180037755 | -21.2743005895631 | -0.335696117293448 |
| 36 | 724 | 643.492929639059 | -0.703050391388863 | 69.5825025715409 | 1.26440901480222 |
| 37 | 627 | 654.441299721752 | -0.510903346154514 | -31.6112364039023 | 0.482508123064026 |
| 38 | 696 | 668.792385461114 | -0.244569054757817 | 21.9276651578585 | 0.611421992282634 |
| 39 | 825 | 703.973523628442 | 0.494007349558294 | 108.630742916926 | 1.43940534387595 |
| 40 | 677 | 708.391993770023 | 0.586600123213342 | -32.7472289212478 | 0.157979752309502 |
| 41 | 656 | 690.434729445697 | 0.118459942363158 | -28.0575756903566 | -0.745518642283325 |
| 42 | 785 | 680.261942139832 | -0.14587924070327 | 108.291255453296 | -0.415743928687551 |
| 43 | 412 | 637.599577709034 | -1.21715400392714 | -210.81050624404 | -1.72909383552137 |
| 44 | 352 | 622.946807501739 | -1.54152590584859 | -266.24030437427 | -0.549434601839517 |
| 45 | 839 | 630.697598540949 | -1.32945784751415 | 205.031043223916 | 0.381285137019485 |
| 46 | 729 | 635.288206430698 | -1.2025118074759 | 91.6215122687274 | 0.243308311094852 |
| 47 | 696 | 668.654032456324 | -0.504752620831727 | 15.1207528748657 | 1.42177462632016 |
| 48 | 641 | 652.478215880718 | -0.806807605791599 | -5.93158646171911 | -0.644783629498079 |
| 49 | 695 | 676.523623006383 | -0.33400912764453 | 9.68547341963133 | 1.0218455407762 |
| 50 | 638 | 670.198179368937 | -0.451972401708923 | -30.0869168081069 | -0.245519770577 |
| 51 | 762 | 661.109950086158 | -0.633085314269938 | 103.913077719923 | -0.351980343407318 |
| 52 | 635 | 653.866545840723 | -0.780557344553721 | -16.567149509839 | -0.268195473357659 |
| 53 | 721 | 673.915223041134 | -0.296010175357923 | 39.8596223988248 | 0.844006197175531 |
| 54 | 854 | 690.693301440947 | 0.10785023572492 | 157.377216195404 | 0.693133463438753 |
| 55 | 418 | 674.955466854181 | -0.264734425015366 | -251.433275154338 | -0.645399469533269 |
| 56 | 367 | 662.479184214398 | -0.54539797354472 | -291.207101633547 | -0.498919998501138 |
| 57 | 824 | 650.588054486417 | -0.797670462590824 | 177.392952047143 | -0.46450523414113 |
| 58 | 687 | 637.393897664488 | -1.0633660662156 | 53.9638611840153 | -0.508073264365704 |
| 59 | 601 | 617.29952086335 | -1.45792917364043 | -9.60283847068743 | -0.780374127471211 |
| 60 | 676 | 635.343589485405 | -1.06240087111219 | 33.7916529509928 | 0.79976246114784 |
| 61 | 740 | 665.470406259485 | -0.432328578644345 | 63.5573013785519 | 1.27826816074499 |
| 62 | 691 | 687.54146684647 | 0.0296297431308142 | -4.44230654064532 | 0.920668314341161 |
| 63 | 683 | 661.202276681714 | -0.527719107682779 | 31.0264251985477 | -1.07603310635026 |
| 64 | 594 | 644.501552718188 | -0.880344883987069 | -44.8586023366452 | -0.658497597887056 |
| 65 | 729 | 654.712084296939 | -0.632765359986327 | 70.4244181918386 | 0.451198494901602 |
| 66 | 731 | 627.325692471352 | -1.2368120893582 | 112.996672717601 | -1.08917660321024 |
| 67 | 386 | 619.273692464312 | -1.39049373996767 | -230.895031260805 | -0.277903496593212 |
| 68 | 331 | 614.036701056202 | -1.47623120740319 | -281.691470347124 | -0.157109273965743 |
| 69 | 706 | 583.909138566022 | -2.10333838428371 | 132.127935018334 | -1.17165865249605 |
| 70 | 715 | 598.663390293011 | -1.74181186075428 | 110.42456036544 | 0.689833203608197 |
| 71 | 657 | 628.895851753949 | -1.06828529839903 | 16.8838682928556 | 1.30882922794767 |
| 72 | 653 | 639.439201091953 | -0.826435726788948 | 9.48540029628573 | 0.475320399090417 |
| 73 | 642 | 624.441655426451 | -1.12104862137869 | 22.530263267343 | -0.579874284458086 |
| 74 | 643 | 620.246811243951 | -1.18544573332626 | 23.8305097295595 | -0.125663826139505 |
| 75 | 718 | 635.046106669502 | -0.845775274770918 | 77.3602193179393 | 0.652662697891046 |
| 76 | 654 | 656.256875744709 | -0.36962609062678 | -9.96344337583193 | 0.899561807409983 |
| 77 | 632 | 626.010885581572 | -1.02288118869385 | 16.4186812379583 | -1.21789348815966 |
| 78 | 731 | 613.722704766505 | -1.27090266690558 | 121.210067245811 | -0.459352572708449 |
| 79 | 392 | 610.96516668062 | -1.3036378998386 | -218.445776893367 | -0.0606662760049782 |
| 80 | 344 | 611.548815127985 | -1.26231857082814 | -268.208868108532 | 0.0770830069199614 |
| 81 | 792 | 632.309863378261 | -0.784782253725467 | 151.980633935689 | 0.900111016220085 |
| 82 | 852 | 676.365287078186 | 0.176879494562883 | 159.927919936555 | 1.83338754344646 |
| 83 | 649 | 674.520662824492 | 0.133940806177691 | -24.8123124346421 | -0.0826690225568126 |
| 84 | 629 | 655.342245884328 | -0.273810360407432 | -19.5743946663459 | -0.789783983249319 |
| 85 | 685 | 654.143068301728 | -0.293326203192885 | 31.1811550048487 | -0.037835257187956 |
| 86 | 617 | 639.382789388497 | -0.599561448532739 | -17.3166664342389 | -0.591229892137465 |
| 87 | 715 | 636.356519127067 | -0.65129287021934 | 79.4926134371713 | -0.0991105159246446 |
| 88 | 715 | 655.025152753299 | -0.236094843554531 | 53.2198674203438 | 0.78860138638812 |
| 89 | 629 | 644.967688694789 | -0.448610215257918 | -12.5354106080087 | -0.400778527673236 |
| 90 | 916 | 688.870761344867 | 0.514878978508664 | 211.630022481065 | 1.81004159197182 |
| 91 | 531 | 721.553395420911 | 1.21398749438461 | -201.798833591125 | 1.31329848607158 |
| 92 | 357 | 708.97851781235 | 0.915148712586352 | -347.155542033324 | -0.563206040190319 |
| 93 | 917 | 730.996547577664 | 1.37021197076843 | 178.618543629576 | 0.86226495431942 |
| 94 | 828 | 715.292059085185 | 1.00414917972807 | 118.685351591142 | -0.697835704692295 |
| 95 | 708 | 712.831320199232 | 0.930247161802907 | -3.61810291723971 | -0.141624435788432 |
| 96 | 858 | 760.682822508446 | 1.92775916985921 | 80.8869165410498 | 1.91788366022479 |
| 97 | 775 | 765.520877856845 | 1.98958496554926 | 8.46013643053275 | 0.11894384303206 |
| 98 | 785 | 780.547192793216 | 2.26702260902034 | -0.11051614118867 | 0.532683392293619 |
| 99 | 1006 | 834.14449244779 | 3.36325438288747 | 153.895211785621 | 2.09668663215774 |
| 100 | 789 | 822.193673457439 | 3.03483498537338 | -27.8374728032255 | -0.625348307475803 |
| 101 | 734 | 809.931457626612 | 2.70558671281973 | -70.5825882634488 | -0.624557680848542 |
| 102 | 906 | 779.751047281809 | 1.99619074408548 | 137.747713008285 | -1.34274054734612 |
| 103 | 532 | 758.950144906247 | 1.50423596804659 | -218.977682123251 | -0.930979104526215 |
| 104 | 387 | 751.106471314647 | 1.302782322357 | -360.836493246187 | -0.38183522712832 |
| 105 | 991 | 766.969761872414 | 1.61576347266501 | 218.935491166874 | 0.594873902731027 |
| 106 | 841 | 762.711010057843 | 1.48987505444834 | 80.3449055330673 | -0.240036878710386 |
| 107 | 892 | 813.279755870179 | 2.53873218173628 | 61.5419835704462 | 2.00553104521738 |
| 108 | 782 | 796.160619934685 | 2.11937544288878 | -7.27985361224602 | -0.803293655142661 |
| 109 | 811 | 801.294300575082 | 2.18364868898058 | 8.65066701173643 | 0.123168731334578 |
| 110 | 792 | 808.075299685778 | 2.28175794897507 | -17.6841882040356 | 0.18783108776674 |
| 111 | 978 | 808.92715665102 | 2.25118919043663 | 169.573150158297 | -0.0584109390440604 |
| 112 | 773 | 800.40076599423 | 2.02028773230612 | -23.630584557524 | -0.440192811514697 |
| 113 | 796 | 810.270217654754 | 2.18877398799499 | -17.015610575961 | 0.320559452573175 |
| 114 | 946 | 808.363187670762 | 2.1007479327505 | 139.069359276506 | -0.167274300831065 |
| 115 | 594 | 810.384749583394 | 2.09904561030749 | -216.357051337712 | -0.00323427436621745 |
| 116 | 438 | 812.621425164209 | 2.10200244814476 | -374.669572928742 | 0.00562203019148305 |
| 117 | 1023 | 814.35524021783 | 2.09410271312608 | 208.773582762748 | -0.0150416600611853 |
| 118 | 868 | 815.96753560489 | 2.08378168253046 | 52.2010598305787 | -0.0196848707480036 |
| 119 | 791 | 787.920710818379 | 1.43928086404733 | 13.6233897123439 | -1.23107331809738 |
| 120 | 760 | 776.855507228004 | 1.17206759411666 | -12.4795083928798 | -0.510909865194458 |
| 121 | 779 | 773.440459891133 | 1.07407281899825 | 7.16478205659046 | -0.187415551024846 |
| 122 | 852 | 800.906067884736 | 1.63809247834699 | 41.8589729740786 | 1.07821007328533 |
| 123 | 1001 | 815.506435075166 | 1.9153587593843 | 180.958257752034 | 0.529521171961031 |
| 124 | 734 | 803.564456049386 | 1.61861783595938 | -64.7164951252389 | -0.566040387021278 |
| 125 | 996 | 863.139582892149 | 2.86096055281431 | 112.585946650584 | 2.36728143742717 |
| 126 | 869 | 838.008432751497 | 2.26052619963264 | 40.7836509067841 | -1.14336303131602 |
| 127 | 599 | 825.696704700196 | 1.94789208426984 | -221.598914305463 | -0.595242112218979 |
| 128 | 426 | 814.664410430026 | 1.66949859763102 | -384.123257702576 | -0.530242233624219 |
| 129 | 1138 | 843.766961059188 | 2.25747827625132 | 284.634798905439 | 1.12070791619668 |
| 130 | 1091 | 902.915690960038 | 3.47582884445332 | 168.17807193914 | 2.32424421543855 |
| 131 | 830 | 890.712997929908 | 3.14032670222056 | -55.2268777807483 | -0.640547210461122 |
| 132 | 909 | 900.756482804862 | 3.28796766595387 | 5.82797860550301 | 0.282030228434567 |
