| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.054134723682192 |
| beta | 0.0515900376014013 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 647 | 611 | 36 |
| 4 | 580 | 610.04939130005 | -30.0493913000499 |
| 5 | 614 | 605.439294739149 | 8.56070526085125 |
| 6 | 636 | 602.943253530979 | 33.0567464690206 |
| 7 | 388 | 601.865620037366 | -213.865620037366 |
| 8 | 356 | 586.823625899921 | -230.823625899921 |
| 9 | 639 | 570.218967709284 | 68.7810322907158 |
| 10 | 753 | 570.025417425646 | 182.974582574354 |
| 11 | 611 | 576.524717121544 | 34.4752828784557 |
| 12 | 639 | 575.081331259968 | 63.9186687400324 |
| 13 | 630 | 575.410367808861 | 54.5896321911388 |
| 14 | 586 | 575.386838145309 | 10.6131618546913 |
| 15 | 695 | 573.012294981927 | 121.987705018073 |
| 16 | 552 | 577.007670716844 | -25.0076707168445 |
| 17 | 619 | 572.975650670161 | 46.024349329839 |
| 18 | 681 | 572.917466776198 | 108.082533223802 |
| 19 | 421 | 576.520639761839 | -155.520639761839 |
| 20 | 307 | 565.419387840258 | -258.419387840258 |
| 21 | 754 | 548.026023745616 | 205.973976254384 |
| 22 | 690 | 556.347712777284 | 133.652287222716 |
| 23 | 644 | 561.127552926087 | 82.8724470739128 |
| 24 | 643 | 563.389887660127 | 79.6101123398729 |
| 25 | 608 | 565.697952916102 | 42.3020470838983 |
| 26 | 651 | 566.10449805125 | 84.8955019487498 |
| 27 | 691 | 569.053925309297 | 121.946074690703 |
| 28 | 627 | 574.349647598219 | 52.6503524017807 |
| 29 | 634 | 576.041107667321 | 57.9588923326792 |
| 30 | 731 | 578.181812393691 | 152.818187606309 |
| 31 | 475 | 585.88449139231 | -110.88449139231 |
| 32 | 337 | 579.002019143196 | -242.002019143196 |
| 33 | 803 | 564.345669512174 | 238.654330487826 |
| 34 | 722 | 576.376035335251 | 145.623964664749 |
| 35 | 590 | 583.776928429109 | 6.22307157089097 |
| 36 | 724 | 583.648772565918 | 140.351227434082 |
| 37 | 627 | 591.173582010969 | 35.8264179890311 |
| 38 | 696 | 593.140026244272 | 102.859973755728 |
| 39 | 825 | 599.022582109725 | 225.977417890275 |
| 40 | 677 | 612.201179335512 | 64.7988206644876 |
| 41 | 656 | 616.835388688819 | 39.1646113111808 |
| 42 | 785 | 620.191276615271 | 164.808723384729 |
| 43 | 412 | 630.809153682411 | -218.809153682411 |
| 44 | 352 | 620.048890050703 | -268.048890050703 |
| 45 | 839 | 605.87443662445 | 233.12556337555 |
| 46 | 729 | 619.481999722219 | 109.518000277781 |
| 47 | 696 | 626.703964779178 | 69.2960352208215 |
| 48 | 641 | 631.94205570036 | 9.05794429963953 |
| 49 | 695 | 633.944471353814 | 61.0555286461856 |
| 50 | 638 | 638.932278507352 | -0.93227850735218 |
| 51 | 762 | 640.561789169964 | 121.438210830036 |
| 52 | 635 | 649.154946604431 | -14.1549466044307 |
| 53 | 721 | 650.368273817159 | 70.6317261828408 |
| 54 | 854 | 656.368765296016 | 197.631234703984 |
| 55 | 418 | 669.796287045338 | -251.796287045338 |
| 56 | 367 | 658.190954289222 | -291.190954289222 |
| 57 | 824 | 643.639760390576 | 180.360239609424 |
| 58 | 687 | 655.119572394754 | 31.8804276052456 |
| 59 | 601 | 658.650506858202 | -57.6505068582023 |
| 60 | 676 | 657.173701871296 | 18.826298128704 |
| 61 | 740 | 659.889525909883 | 80.1104740901168 |
| 62 | 691 | 666.146685408069 | 24.8533145919311 |
| 63 | 683 | 669.481924491284 | 13.5180755087157 |
| 64 | 594 | 672.241286988173 | -78.2412869881726 |
| 65 | 729 | 669.814768512174 | 59.1852314878258 |
| 66 | 731 | 674.993089890669 | 56.0069101093308 |
| 67 | 386 | 680.155770514303 | -294.155770514303 |
| 68 | 331 | 665.540969286221 | -334.540969286221 |
| 69 | 706 | 647.805616304303 | 58.1943836956971 |
| 70 | 715 | 651.493409134448 | 63.5065908655519 |
| 71 | 657 | 655.646138828252 | 1.35386117174835 |
| 72 | 653 | 656.438028754296 | -3.4380287542964 |
| 73 | 642 | 656.960909273839 | -14.9609092738386 |
| 74 | 643 | 656.818218827044 | -13.8182188270438 |
| 75 | 718 | 656.698795918536 | 61.3012040814643 |
| 76 | 654 | 660.817144977097 | -6.81714497709675 |
| 77 | 632 | 661.228887024454 | -29.2288870244543 |
| 78 | 731 | 660.345744809836 | 70.6542551901643 |
| 79 | 392 | 665.067072981664 | -273.067072981664 |
| 80 | 344 | 650.418516913503 | -306.418516913503 |
| 81 | 792 | 633.108720200779 | 158.891279799221 |
| 82 | 852 | 641.432094301005 | 210.567905698995 |
| 83 | 649 | 653.141044929603 | -4.1410449296028 |
| 84 | 629 | 653.215220682074 | -24.2152206820745 |
| 85 | 685 | 652.135057907715 | 32.8649420922853 |
| 86 | 617 | 654.236699591676 | -37.2366995916761 |
| 87 | 715 | 652.439413155925 | 62.5605868440748 |
| 88 | 715 | 656.219345230191 | 58.7806547698086 |
| 89 | 629 | 659.958815069382 | -30.9588150693825 |
| 90 | 916 | 658.753801341889 | 257.246198658111 |
| 91 | 531 | 673.869126777617 | -142.869126777617 |
| 92 | 357 | 666.925312956701 | -309.925312956701 |
| 93 | 917 | 650.072395391087 | 266.927604608913 |
| 94 | 828 | 665.192729855297 | 162.807270144703 |
| 95 | 708 | 675.131228951394 | 32.8687710486062 |
| 96 | 858 | 678.127339615598 | 179.872660384402 |
| 97 | 775 | 689.583815810997 | 85.4161841890026 |
| 98 | 785 | 696.165468148517 | 88.8345318514827 |
| 99 | 1006 | 703.180269976991 | 302.819730023009 |
| 100 | 789 | 722.624820086708 | 66.3751799132915 |
| 101 | 734 | 729.454883237602 | 4.5451167623977 |
| 102 | 906 | 732.950486663161 | 173.049513336839 |
| 103 | 532 | 746.051323868417 | -214.051323868417 |
| 104 | 387 | 737.598759016399 | -350.598759016399 |
| 105 | 991 | 720.775079920901 | 270.224920079099 |
| 106 | 841 | 738.314206664376 | 102.685793335624 |
| 107 | 892 | 747.07043123568 | 144.92956876432 |
| 108 | 782 | 758.518272018273 | 23.4817279817269 |
| 109 | 811 | 763.457147560094 | 47.5428524399058 |
| 110 | 792 | 769.831343695208 | 22.168656304792 |
| 111 | 978 | 774.893827632781 | 203.106172367219 |
| 112 | 773 | 790.318551448994 | -17.3185514489943 |
| 113 | 796 | 793.762276282932 | 2.23772371706798 |
| 114 | 946 | 798.27092421185 | 147.72907578815 |
| 115 | 594 | 811.068285882463 | -217.068285882463 |
| 116 | 438 | 803.511212172007 | -365.511212172007 |
| 117 | 1023 | 786.897417407521 | 236.102582592479 |
| 118 | 868 | 803.511209413497 | 64.4887905865033 |
| 119 | 791 | 811.014841305141 | -20.014841305141 |
| 120 | 760 | 813.887994736602 | -53.887994736602 |
| 121 | 779 | 814.776935305262 | -35.7769353052615 |
| 122 | 852 | 816.54639480219 | 35.4536051978102 |
| 123 | 1001 | 822.270915196281 | 178.729084803719 |
| 124 | 734 | 836.250770898968 | -102.250770898968 |
| 125 | 996 | 834.734292528953 | 161.265707471047 |
| 126 | 869 | 847.93359077361 | 21.0664092263896 |
| 127 | 599 | 853.602073276905 | -254.602073276905 |
| 128 | 426 | 843.636262816966 | -417.636262816966 |
| 129 | 1138 | 823.678261809384 | 314.321738190616 |
| 130 | 1091 | 844.22244659085 | 246.77755340915 |
| 131 | 830 | 861.799349011515 | -31.799349011515 |
| 132 | 909 | 864.206758178201 | 44.793241821799 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 870.885585208305 | 569.731833234567 | 1172.03933718204 |
| 134 | 875.139542469557 | 573.49820404926 | 1176.78088088985 |
| 135 | 879.393499730808 | 577.216469627659 | 1181.57052983396 |
| 136 | 883.64745699206 | 580.884548851694 | 1186.41036513243 |
| 137 | 887.901414253312 | 584.500400908297 | 1191.30242759833 |
| 138 | 892.155371514563 | 588.062028336342 | 1196.24871469278 |
| 139 | 896.409328775815 | 591.567480059097 | 1201.25117749253 |
| 140 | 900.663286037066 | 595.014854381063 | 1206.31171769307 |
| 141 | 904.917243298318 | 598.402301927769 | 1211.43218466887 |
| 142 | 909.17120055957 | 601.728028507054 | 1216.61437261209 |
| 143 | 913.425157820821 | 604.990297870496 | 1221.86001777115 |
| 144 | 917.679115082073 | 608.187434354108 | 1227.17079581004 |
