| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999922436590606 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 8.89 | 8.64 | 0.25 |
| 3 | 8.87 | 8.88998060914765 | -0.0199806091476535 |
| 4 | 8.81 | 8.87000154976417 | -0.0600015497641664 |
| 5 | 8.87 | 8.81000465392477 | 0.0599953460752296 |
| 6 | 9.06 | 8.86999534655641 | 0.190004653443591 |
| 7 | 9.12 | 9.05998526259128 | 0.0600147374087214 |
| 8 | 8.66 | 9.11999534505235 | -0.459995345052352 |
| 9 | 8.17 | 8.66003567880727 | -0.490035678807269 |
| 10 | 8.04 | 8.17003800883797 | -0.130038008837975 |
| 11 | 7.71 | 8.04001008619132 | -0.330010086191316 |
| 12 | 7.55 | 7.71002559670742 | -0.16002559670742 |
| 13 | 7.52 | 7.55001241213087 | -0.0300124121308709 |
| 14 | 7.38 | 7.52000232786501 | -0.140002327865009 |
| 15 | 7.52 | 7.38001085905787 | 0.139989140942127 |
| 16 | 7.31 | 7.51998914196495 | -0.20998914196495 |
| 17 | 6.92 | 7.31001628747379 | -0.390016287473786 |
| 18 | 7.09 | 6.92003025099298 | 0.169969749007024 |
| 19 | 7.05 | 7.08998681656677 | -0.0399868165667732 |
| 20 | 7.37 | 7.05000310151382 | 0.319996898486177 |
| 21 | 7.05 | 7.36997517994956 | -0.319975179949558 |
| 22 | 6.79 | 7.05002481836588 | -0.260024818365879 |
| 23 | 6.35 | 6.79002016841144 | -0.44002016841144 |
| 24 | 6.44 | 6.35003412946446 | 0.0899658705355364 |
| 25 | 6.89 | 6.43999302194035 | 0.450006978059647 |
| 26 | 7.16 | 6.88996509592453 | 0.27003490407547 |
| 27 | 7.46 | 7.15997905517218 | 0.300020944827815 |
| 28 | 7.91 | 7.45997672935263 | 0.450023270647371 |
| 29 | 7.86 | 7.90996509466082 | -0.0499650946608217 |
| 30 | 8.02 | 7.86000387546309 | 0.159996124536907 |
| 31 | 8.38 | 8.01998759015509 | 0.360012409844909 |
| 32 | 8.5 | 8.37997207621007 | 0.120027923789932 |
| 33 | 8.4 | 8.49999069022501 | -0.0999906902250078 |
| 34 | 8.24 | 8.40000775561884 | -0.160007755618842 |
| 35 | 8.33 | 8.24001241074706 | 0.089987589252944 |
| 36 | 8.28 | 8.32999302025577 | -0.0499930202557746 |
| 37 | 8.15 | 8.2800038776291 | -0.130003877629097 |
| 38 | 8.06 | 8.15001008354398 | -0.0900100835439837 |
| 39 | 7.79 | 8.06000698148896 | -0.270006981488961 |
| 40 | 7.28 | 7.79002094266204 | -0.510020942662044 |
| 41 | 7.52 | 7.28003955896318 | 0.239960441036824 |
| 42 | 7.23 | 7.51998138785007 | -0.289981387850072 |
| 43 | 7.13 | 7.2300224919451 | -0.100022491945103 |
| 44 | 7.21 | 7.13000775808549 | 0.0799922419145087 |
| 45 | 6.99 | 7.20999379552899 | -0.219993795528992 |
| 46 | 6.77 | 6.99001706346883 | -0.220017063468828 |
| 47 | 6.69 | 6.77001706527357 | -0.0800170652735668 |
| 48 | 6.39 | 6.69000620639639 | -0.300006206396393 |
| 49 | 6.85 | 6.39002326950421 | 0.459976730495792 |
| 50 | 6.74 | 6.84996432263654 | -0.10996432263654 |
| 51 | 6.56 | 6.74000852920778 | -0.180008529207776 |
| 52 | 6.62 | 6.56001396207524 | 0.0599860379247552 |
| 53 | 6.71 | 6.61999534727838 | 0.0900046527216176 |
| 54 | 6.67 | 6.70999301893227 | -0.0399930189322735 |
| 55 | 6.54 | 6.6700031019949 | -0.1300031019949 |
| 56 | 6.14 | 6.54001008348382 | -0.400010083483822 |
| 57 | 6.13 | 6.14003102614587 | -0.0100310261458674 |
| 58 | 5.86 | 6.13000077804059 | -0.270000778040587 |
| 59 | 5.88 | 5.86002094218088 | 0.0199790578191159 |
| 60 | 5.75 | 5.87999845035616 | -0.129998450356159 |
| 61 | 5.53 | 5.75001008312303 | -0.220010083123025 |
| 62 | 5.86 | 5.53001706473215 | 0.329982935267852 |
| 63 | 5.9 | 5.8599744053985 | 0.0400255946015013 |
| 64 | 5.95 | 5.89999689547842 | 0.0500031045215801 |
| 65 | 5.69 | 5.94999612158873 | -0.259996121588733 |
| 66 | 5.53 | 5.69002016618562 | -0.16002016618562 |
| 67 | 5.71 | 5.53001241170966 | 0.179987588290339 |
| 68 | 5.6 | 5.709986039549 | -0.109986039549004 |
| 69 | 5.73 | 5.60000853089221 | 0.129991469107788 |
| 70 | 5.6 | 5.72998991741846 | -0.129989917418465 |
| 71 | 5.41 | 5.60001008246118 | -0.190010082461181 |
| 72 | 5.13 | 5.41001473782982 | -0.280014737829815 |
| 73 | 5 | 5.13002171889775 | -0.130021718897747 |
| 74 | 5.04 | 5.00001008492781 | 0.0399899150721872 |
| 75 | 5.1 | 5.03999689824585 | 0.0600031017541536 |
| 76 | 4.96 | 5.09999534595485 | -0.139995345954853 |
| 77 | 4.9 | 4.96001085851633 | -0.060010858516331 |
| 78 | 4.8 | 4.90000465464679 | -0.100004654646788 |
| 79 | 4.48 | 4.80000775670197 | -0.320007756701969 |
| 80 | 4.29 | 4.48002482089264 | -0.190024820892643 |
| 81 | 4.27 | 4.29001473897298 | -0.0200147389729786 |
| 82 | 4.18 | 4.27000155241139 | -0.0900015524113931 |
| 83 | 4.02 | 4.18000698082726 | -0.160006980827256 |
| 84 | 3.82 | 4.02001241068696 | -0.20001241068696 |
| 85 | 4.13 | 3.82001551364449 | 0.309984486355506 |
| 86 | 4.16 | 4.12997595654638 | 0.0300240434536212 |
| 87 | 3.98 | 4.15999767123283 | -0.179997671232826 |
| 88 | 4.26 | 3.98001396123306 | 0.279986038766936 |
| 89 | 4.7 | 4.25997828332825 | 0.44002171667175 |
| 90 | 4.96 | 4.69996587041545 | 0.260034129584552 |
| 91 | 5.13 | 4.95997983086635 | 0.170020169133649 |
| 92 | 5.35 | 5.12998681265602 | 0.220013187343984 |
| 93 | 5.41 | 5.34998293502708 | 0.0600170649729224 |
| 94 | 5.42 | 5.40999534487182 | 0.0100046551281805 |
| 95 | 5.51 | 5.41999922400484 | 0.0900007759951613 |
| 96 | 5.75 | 5.50999301923297 | 0.240006980767035 |
| 97 | 5.67 | 5.74998138424029 | -0.079981384240293 |
| 98 | 5.46 | 5.67000620362885 | -0.21000620362885 |
| 99 | 5.56 | 5.46001628879715 | 0.0999837112028521 |
| 100 | 5.56 | 5.55999224492247 | 7.75507752504012e-06 |
| 101 | 5.54 | 5.55999999939849 | -0.0199999993984896 |
| 102 | 5.53 | 5.54000155126814 | -0.0100015512681413 |
| 103 | 5.65 | 5.53000077575442 | 0.119999224245585 |
| 104 | 5.58 | 5.64999069245104 | -0.0699906924510429 |
| 105 | 5.57 | 5.58000542871673 | -0.0100054287167319 |
| 106 | 5.36 | 5.57000077605516 | -0.210000776055164 |
| 107 | 5.23 | 5.36001628837617 | -0.130016288376166 |
| 108 | 5.11 | 5.2300100845066 | -0.120010084506603 |
| 109 | 5.07 | 5.11000930839132 | -0.0400093083913164 |
| 110 | 5.04 | 5.07000310325837 | -0.030003103258367 |
| 111 | 5.34 | 5.04000232714298 | 0.299997672857018 |
| 112 | 5.43 | 5.33997673115768 | 0.0900232688423168 |
| 113 | 5.31 | 5.42999301748834 | -0.119993017488344 |
| 114 | 5.12 | 5.31000930706754 | -0.190009307067539 |
| 115 | 4.97 | 5.12001473776967 | -0.150014737769673 |
| 116 | 5 | 4.97001163565452 | 0.0299883643454795 |
| 117 | 4.64 | 4.99999767400022 | -0.359997674000219 |
| 118 | 4.8 | 4.64002792264697 | 0.15997207735303 |
| 119 | 5.1 | 4.79998759202027 | 0.300012407979727 |
| 120 | 5.11 | 5.09997673001478 | 0.0100232699852238 |
| 121 | 5.12 | 5.10999922256101 | 0.010000777438993 |
| 122 | 5.36 | 5.11999922430561 | 0.240000775694395 |
| 123 | 5.26 | 5.35998138472158 | -0.0999813847215805 |
| 124 | 5.27 | 5.26000775489707 | 0.00999224510292507 |
| 125 | 5.1 | 5.2699992249674 | -0.169999224967402 |
| 126 | 4.94 | 5.10001318571948 | -0.160013185719482 |
| 127 | 4.68 | 4.94001241116823 | -0.260012411168233 |
| 128 | 4.41 | 4.68002016744909 | -0.270020167449094 |
| 129 | 4.6 | 4.41002094368479 | 0.189979056315207 |
| 130 | 4.53 | 4.59998526457668 | -0.0699852645766779 |
| 131 | 4.18 | 4.53000542829573 | -0.350005428295728 |
| 132 | 4 | 4.18002714761433 | -0.180027147614325 |
| 133 | 3.87 | 4.00001396351935 | -0.130013963519352 |
| 134 | 4.09 | 3.87001008432628 | 0.21998991567372 |
| 135 | 4.13 | 4.08998293683211 | 0.040017063167892 |
| 136 | 3.74 | 4.12999689614015 | -0.389996896140146 |
| 137 | 3.81 | 3.74003024948892 | 0.0699697505110821 |
| 138 | 4.11 | 3.8099945729076 | 0.300005427092404 |
| 139 | 4.14 | 4.10997673055624 | 0.0300232694437614 |
| 140 | 3.99 | 4.13999767129286 | -0.14999767129286 |
| 141 | 4.28 | 3.99001163433079 | 0.289988365669213 |
| 142 | 4.37 | 4.27997750751367 | 0.0900224924863258 |
| 143 | 4.24 | 4.36999301754856 | -0.129993017548561 |
| 144 | 4.19 | 4.24001008270164 | -0.0500100827016388 |
| 145 | 4.01 | 4.19000387895252 | -0.180003878952519 |
| 146 | 3.95 | 4.01001396171456 | -0.0600139617145556 |
| 147 | 4.3 | 3.95000465488748 | 0.349995345112518 |
| 148 | 4.37 | 4.29997285316776 | 0.0700271468322393 |
| 149 | 4.4 | 4.36999456845574 | 0.0300054315442591 |
| 150 | 4.29 | 4.39999767267643 | -0.109997672676429 |
| 151 | 4.12 | 4.29000853179452 | -0.170008531794518 |
| 152 | 4.07 | 4.12001318644135 | -0.050013186441352 |
| 153 | 3.93 | 4.07000387919326 | -0.140003879193256 |
| 154 | 3.79 | 3.9300108591782 | -0.140010859178199 |
| 155 | 3.67 | 3.79001085971959 | -0.12001085971959 |
| 156 | 3.53 | 3.67000930845144 | -0.140009308451444 |
| 157 | 3.69 | 3.53001085959931 | 0.15998914040069 |
| 158 | 3.69 | 3.6899875906968 | 1.24093031956818e-05 |
| 159 | 3.48 | 3.68999999903749 | -0.209999999037492 |
| 160 | 3.31 | 3.4800162883159 | -0.170016288315898 |
| 161 | 3.16 | 3.31001318704297 | -0.150013187042974 |
| 162 | 3.25 | 3.16001163553424 | 0.0899883644657589 |
| 163 | 3.14 | 3.24999302019565 | -0.109993020195646 |
| 164 | 3.19 | 3.14000853143366 | 0.0499914685663438 |
| 165 | 3.43 | 3.18999612249126 | 0.240003877508743 |
| 166 | 3.45 | 3.42998138448099 | 0.0200186155190076 |
| 167 | 3.31 | 3.44999844728793 | -0.139998447287929 |
| 168 | 3.51 | 3.31001085875688 | 0.199989141243118 |
| 169 | 3.53 | 3.50998448816036 | 0.0200155118396368 |
| 170 | 3.83 | 3.52999844752866 | 0.300001552471339 |
| 171 | 4.02 | 3.82997673085677 | 0.190023269143233 |
| 172 | 3.99 | 4.01998526114738 | -0.0299852611473801 |
| 173 | 4.11 | 3.99000232575909 | 0.119997674240914 |
| 174 | 3.96 | 4.10999069257127 | -0.149990692571267 |
| 175 | 3.83 | 3.96001163378949 | -0.130011633789493 |
| 176 | 3.71 | 3.83001008414558 | -0.120010084145578 |
| 177 | 3.81 | 3.71000930839129 | 0.0999906916087121 |
| 178 | 3.73 | 3.80999224438105 | -0.0799922443810512 |
| 179 | 3.99 | 3.7300062044712 | 0.259993795528801 |
| 180 | 4.17 | 3.9899798339948 | 0.180020166005202 |
| 181 | 4 | 4.16998603702216 | -0.169986037022165 |
| 182 | 4.1 | 4.00001318469658 | 0.0999868153034189 |
| 183 | 4.24 | 4.09999224468171 | 0.14000775531829 |
| 184 | 4.45 | 4.23998914052116 | 0.210010859478844 |
| 185 | 4.62 | 4.44998371084173 | 0.170016289158271 |
| 186 | 4.49 | 4.61998681295696 | -0.12998681295696 |
| 187 | 4.45 | 4.49001008222039 | -0.0400100822203893 |
| 188 | 4.49 | 4.45000310331839 | 0.0399968966816129 |
| 189 | 4.36 | 4.48999689770433 | -0.129996897704328 |
| 190 | 4.32 | 4.3600100830026 | -0.0400100830025965 |
| 191 | 4.45 | 4.32000310331845 | 0.129996896681552 |
| 192 | 4.13 | 4.44998991699748 | -0.319989916997483 |
| 193 | 4.14 | 4.13002481950893 | 0.00997518049106549 |
| 194 | 4.3 | 4.13999922629099 | 0.160000773709008 |
| 195 | 4.42 | 4.29998758979449 | 0.120012410205515 |
| 196 | 4.67 | 4.41999069142829 | 0.250009308571705 |
| 197 | 4.96 | 4.66998060842565 | 0.290019391574353 |
| 198 | 4.73 | 4.9599775051072 | -0.229977505107199 |
| 199 | 4.52 | 4.73001783783938 | -0.210017837839381 |
| 200 | 4.36 | 4.52001628969954 | -0.160016289699536 |
| 201 | 4.15 | 4.36001241140899 | -0.210012411408988 |
| 202 | 3.92 | 4.15001628927864 | -0.230016289278645 |
| 203 | 3.88 | 3.92001784084761 | -0.0400178408476126 |
| 204 | 4.2 | 3.88000310392017 | 0.319996896079827 |
| 205 | 3.95 | 4.19997517994974 | -0.249975179949744 |
| 206 | 3.78 | 3.95001938892722 | -0.170019388927221 |
| 207 | 3.69 | 3.78001318728347 | -0.0900131872834682 |
| 208 | 3.77 | 3.6900069817297 | 0.0799930182703039 |
| 209 | 3.66 | 3.76999379546878 | -0.109993795468775 |
| 210 | 3.53 | 3.66000853149379 | -0.130008531493789 |
| 211 | 3.5 | 3.53001008390495 | -0.0300100839049526 |
| 212 | 3.14 | 3.50000232768442 | -0.360002327684424 |
| 213 | 3.42 | 3.14002792300793 | 0.279972076992075 |
| 214 | 3.3 | 3.41997828441117 | -0.119978284411173 |
| 215 | 2.81 | 3.30000930592479 | -0.490009305924792 |
| 216 | 3.15 | 2.8100380067924 | 0.339961993207597 |
| 217 | 3.37 | 3.14997363138874 | 0.220026368611258 |
| 218 | 4.05 | 3.36998293400469 | 0.680017065995306 |
| 219 | 4 | 4.04994725555791 | -0.0499472555579148 |
| 220 | 4.2 | 4.00000387407943 | 0.19999612592057 |
| 221 | 4.21 | 4.19998448761861 | 0.0100155123813916 |
| 222 | 4.24 | 4.20999922316271 | 0.0300007768372872 |
| 223 | 4.24 | 4.23999767303746 | 2.3269625355482e-06 |
| 224 | 4.17 | 4.23999999981951 | -0.0699999998195135 |
| 225 | 4.12 | 4.17000542943864 | -0.0500054294386434 |
| 226 | 4.35 | 4.1200038785916 | 0.229996121408404 |
| 227 | 3.98 | 4.34998216071668 | -0.369982160716675 |
| 228 | 3.62 | 3.9800286970778 | -0.3600286970778 |
| 229 | 4.39 | 3.62002792505323 | 0.769972074946774 |
| 230 | 5.01 | 4.38994027834073 | 0.620059721659271 |
| 231 | 4.07 | 5.00995190605396 | -0.93995190605396 |
| 232 | 3.7 | 4.0700729058745 | -0.3700729058745 |
| 233 | 3.59 | 3.7000287041163 | -0.110028704116305 |
| 234 | 3.44 | 3.59000853420142 | -0.150008534201422 |
| 235 | 3.33 | 3.44001163517335 | -0.110011635173351 |
| 236 | 2.98 | 3.3300085328775 | -0.350008532877497 |
| 237 | 3.14 | 2.98002714785513 | 0.159972852144873 |
| 238 | 2.55 | 3.13998759196018 | -0.589987591960178 |
| 239 | 2.49 | 2.55004576144913 | -0.0600457614491323 |
| 240 | 2.53 | 2.49000465735398 | 0.039995342646022 |
| 241 | 2.43 | 2.52999689782486 | -0.0999968978248642 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 242 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.99184462333704 | 2.86817088886361 |
| 243 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.8103755420741 | 3.04963997012655 |
| 244 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.67112619063365 | 3.188889321567 |
| 245 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.55373246821914 | 3.30628304398151 |
| 246 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.4503060005148 | 3.40970951168585 |
| 247 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.35680102874373 | 3.50321448345692 |
| 248 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.27081414440745 | 3.5892013677932 |
| 249 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.19077937556037 | 3.66923613664028 |
| 250 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.11560898522378 | 3.74440652697687 |
| 251 | 2.43000775610032 | 1.0445109936978 | 3.81550451850285 |
| 252 | 2.43000775610032 | 0.976887517312775 | 3.88312799488787 |
| 253 | 2.43000775610032 | 0.912274058075506 | 3.94774145412514 |
