| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 654906.9035 | 484088.3177 | 830348.1971 | 0.3763 | 0.0143 | 0.6175 | 0.0143 |
| 62 | 847224 | 905330.4274 | 728204.4818 | 1086011.2929 | 0.2642 | 0.992 | 0.2998 | 0.7227 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1151497.4407 | 969668.867 | 1336254.0615 | 0.2033 | 0.9994 | 0.4624 | 0.9993 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1531881.0524 | 1344419.2198 | 1721670.4507 | 0.4281 | 1 | 0.9124 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1563811.4355 | 1375939.5489 | 1753972.6449 | 0.2679 | 0.695 | 0.157 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1561874.7769 | 1374027.534 | 1752013.6219 | 0.2883 | 0.7255 | 0.7536 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2920957.314 | 2720421.5835 | 3122880.2677 | 0.2958 | 1 | 0.5084 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2738234.4748 | 2539032.8566 | 2938896.9876 | 0.313 | 0.1066 | 0.3573 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1432881.4291 | 1246744.6287 | 1621474.1253 | 0.3339 | 0 | 0.6059 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1387871.1763 | 1202365.8647 | 1575896.1891 | 0.4114 | 0.4845 | 0.5731 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 987421.6999 | 808602.0122 | 1169555.6737 | 0.329 | 0 | 0.5973 | 0.9292 |
| 72 | 859626 | 893380.3699 | 716513.4727 | 1073840.5706 | 0.357 | 0.2827 | 0.6779 | 0.6779 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1367 | 0.0431 | 0 | 795865964.1277 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1018 | -0.0642 | 0.0536 | 3376356902.9215 | 2086111433.5246 | 45673.9689 |
| 63 | 0.0819 | -0.0679 | 0.0584 | 6121723035.904 | 3431315300.9844 | 58577.43 |
| 64 | 0.0632 | -0.0115 | 0.0467 | 308179864.9132 | 2650531441.9666 | 51483.3123 |
| 65 | 0.062 | -0.0384 | 0.045 | 3609298250.8395 | 2842284803.7412 | 53313.0829 |
| 66 | 0.0621 | -0.0347 | 0.0433 | 2933606400.0964 | 2857505069.8004 | 53455.6365 |
| 67 | 0.0353 | -0.0189 | 0.0398 | 3053591783.9193 | 2885517457.5317 | 53717.0127 |
| 68 | 0.0374 | 0.0182 | 0.0371 | 2489363857.6689 | 2835998257.5488 | 53254.0915 |
| 69 | 0.0672 | -0.0288 | 0.0362 | 1704486654.5449 | 2710274746.1039 | 52060.2991 |
| 70 | 0.0691 | -0.0155 | 0.0341 | 461956626.5693 | 2485442934.1505 | 49854.2168 |
| 71 | 0.0941 | -0.0417 | 0.0348 | 1691405441.489 | 2413257707.5449 | 49124.9194 |
| 72 | 0.1031 | -0.0378 | 0.0351 | 1139357489.3236 | 2307099356.0265 | 48032.2741 |
