Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 62 | 47.9110754114207 | 0.457724064076335 | 3.27294308722993 | 1.53740451313277 |
3 | 66 | 52.2181489994359 | 1.23550514545558 | 3.11039227379189 | 1.66338385981868 |
4 | 59 | 54.8085217562086 | 1.45917163929018 | 0.885414005210611 | 0.524673408014731 |
5 | 58 | 56.4532851492939 | 1.48495789024576 | 1.09750004563736 | 0.0712027661538959 |
6 | 61 | 58.3025377519066 | 1.52861925212819 | 1.7877365167403 | 0.143268498393585 |
7 | 41 | 55.5097588701744 | 1.0734099096598 | -3.20483061963755 | -1.76638756205403 |
8 | 27 | 49.866010140747 | 0.442404531957312 | -4.36798174239947 | -2.86761758456189 |
9 | 58 | 51.1349022092167 | 0.512454552857579 | 4.46947836681696 | 0.368669594664296 |
10 | 70 | 55.1496889737037 | 0.782862164697236 | 4.19178069655521 | 1.62955341180087 |
11 | 49 | 54.8312585125152 | 0.704780254689664 | -2.32478261502626 | -0.533003784977301 |
12 | 59 | 55.9269691599755 | 0.730408321612545 | 1.77579292552655 | 0.196191829367788 |
13 | 44 | 56.3322322931426 | 0.736556156443668 | -10.126556923625 | -0.329518875291752 |
14 | 36 | 53.3161107160547 | 0.551367794191178 | -4.85049356139445 | -1.97251266875634 |
15 | 72 | 56.1462078288359 | 0.678458879410144 | 9.18172768097635 | 1.0829045791418 |
16 | 45 | 55.0581042010448 | 0.582852455113798 | -4.74360346518054 | -0.862758514104173 |
17 | 56 | 55.4248227487592 | 0.57181164623154 | 1.26021349167067 | -0.110645403517929 |
18 | 54 | 55.1217160188251 | 0.529786323643341 | 1.79123894463907 | -0.468077174016439 |
19 | 53 | 55.2065233411414 | 0.509649035251215 | -0.661425283752519 | -0.247200975527775 |
20 | 35 | 53.2928849130008 | 0.405993565354842 | -9.57568592668394 | -1.38968830854626 |
21 | 61 | 54.0446210110347 | 0.420017870205209 | 5.67387701304283 | 0.203691617158301 |
22 | 52 | 53.5161690797104 | 0.383450501705237 | 2.09135497981137 | -0.571952965863289 |
23 | 47 | 53.1838074920935 | 0.357329888105564 | -3.39307651914128 | -0.441294159689625 |
24 | 51 | 52.7576391880178 | 0.331821135521985 | 1.42351617032134 | -0.500312333658597 |
25 | 52 | 53.3936910758178 | 0.334466823605864 | -2.9124829282324 | 0.238012400905332 |
26 | 63 | 55.7506312195821 | 0.386383165372465 | -1.08050117053314 | 1.33111768071526 |
27 | 74 | 57.4972430200593 | 0.42979443516471 | 11.3354837090747 | 0.836174663071383 |
28 | 45 | 57.0092149726217 | 0.399555254030157 | -8.55543306600882 | -0.560703747525154 |
29 | 51 | 56.1634919496516 | 0.359394137608602 | -0.409952723865391 | -0.771341091736933 |
30 | 64 | 57.0085238629356 | 0.374479022669279 | 5.10086967133595 | 0.306319904421563 |
31 | 36 | 54.464658478529 | 0.287521746911311 | -6.88322926351031 | -1.87338611168286 |
32 | 30 | 52.3778304336386 | 0.219656286362561 | -12.7911149501929 | -1.54838802068709 |
33 | 55 | 51.6826815590607 | 0.194561353651768 | 7.06817788990424 | -0.604985084620498 |
34 | 64 | 52.8949816808565 | 0.221280929431519 | 6.87130668569352 | 0.681918919419113 |
35 | 39 | 51.8539050972501 | 0.190134681432901 | -7.51339958697585 | -0.858539926568995 |
36 | 40 | 50.3170290487396 | 0.153400414367847 | -2.7811443918811 | -1.20701560273348 |
37 | 63 | 52.1336651314132 | 0.172851450096872 | 2.9916185433813 | 1.2574534386736 |
38 | 45 | 51.8776911498003 | 0.165164096194881 | -4.98984936008479 | -0.303711231996393 |
39 | 59 | 51.3081944935682 | 0.148940840638073 | 10.770074064912 | -0.498706282591717 |
40 | 55 | 52.7154855926947 | 0.178506299104309 | -2.91233574753558 | 0.844379674342226 |
41 | 40 | 51.4608089911576 | 0.1447408929574 | -5.52628082172351 | -0.964760550187544 |
42 | 64 | 51.9113956977428 | 0.151796784557506 | 10.8107602378842 | 0.207646188691917 |
43 | 27 | 49.5696318329243 | 0.0959869126440519 | -12.0404444680315 | -1.70966312770991 |
44 | 28 | 48.1398430530016 | 0.0629811587275342 | -13.6291438327967 | -1.05627182496688 |
45 | 45 | 46.7735640795724 | 0.0331933819972681 | 4.38730248849458 | -0.998625955797365 |
46 | 57 | 46.7765023032923 | 0.0325907847039753 | 10.3552839453647 | -0.0213390581254067 |
47 | 45 | 47.2931409057648 | 0.0415741350006108 | -4.42947785243313 | 0.345393817367777 |
48 | 69 | 50.4129452592603 | 0.0909461428700101 | 4.70427972967328 | 2.23926443378491 |
49 | 60 | 51.5905375656396 | 0.103645919165084 | 3.32742221984862 | 0.817939127603087 |
50 | 56 | 52.92268024849 | 0.121202167048085 | -2.48922114008621 | 0.898731108415806 |
51 | 58 | 52.6696054131789 | 0.114880160481596 | 6.97610008227742 | -0.26678153121337 |
52 | 50 | 52.5873389057035 | 0.111304555302155 | -1.73145722124216 | -0.13905228945575 |
53 | 51 | 53.0528529579085 | 0.1178419485459 | -3.58859174024553 | 0.24969375812056 |
54 | 53 | 51.5548663497729 | 0.0882846950349937 | 8.48027550292194 | -1.14380919818932 |
55 | 37 | 50.8844868819223 | 0.0747068793134794 | -10.5601551721981 | -0.540282419626302 |
56 | 22 | 48.8796396434584 | 0.0385547231961313 | -17.7022884925543 | -1.49072513761177 |
57 | 55 | 48.8552177984466 | 0.0374982386634213 | 6.42478312745999 | -0.0454518495909033 |
58 | 70 | 50.2752031869256 | 0.0596235455395159 | 13.5276373723913 | 1.00512116311249 |
59 | 62 | 52.7882063453776 | 0.0961411373412126 | -1.89919908902369 | 1.80000346365486 |
60 | 58 | 53.4735354496576 | 0.103873659401946 | 1.81866351510943 | 0.438001694681637 |
61 | 39 | 51.8304603589971 | 0.0847432447440065 | -4.65988790368577 | -1.31979260862075 |
62 | 49 | 51.5694442393082 | 0.0805489142617881 | -0.976626541235048 | -0.257657313757062 |
63 | 58 | 51.4574990591412 | 0.077902169398966 | 7.41300449816337 | -0.141153269186039 |
64 | 47 | 51.1240337830841 | 0.0718441373811094 | -2.28212309857134 | -0.299148756258948 |
65 | 42 | 50.2367872994012 | 0.0573628663726305 | -3.95305521348947 | -0.69622575467493 |
66 | 62 | 50.3681385452314 | 0.0584791410992254 | 11.3007753066267 | 0.0538179173818217 |
67 | 39 | 50.1104944084988 | 0.0537835001667511 | -9.69014830920612 | -0.230833073695431 |
68 | 40 | 51.0555948671449 | 0.066693234494052 | -15.0807022753746 | 0.65391132704504 |
69 | 72 | 53.1371484236227 | 0.0948968522327203 | 9.71187065957705 | 1.48588761992048 |
70 | 70 | 54.1771412790506 | 0.107520730508161 | 11.5025731534093 | 0.701033457994749 |
71 | 54 | 54.6367104619555 | 0.111910170782766 | -2.25877596164944 | 0.262975244069043 |
72 | 65 | 55.549906190268 | 0.120927306977881 | 5.72128476060019 | 0.603906887014906 |