Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 1.2999 | 1.2999 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.3074 | 1.30701000003042 | 0.00038999997054601 | 0.000389999969582516 | 0.113824588275991 |
3 | 1.3242 | 1.32374462154915 | 0.000455378450851853 | 0.000455378450851853 | 0.436660603654864 |
4 | 1.3516 | 1.35103769845589 | 0.000562301544105438 | 0.000562301544105439 | 0.716986475594828 |
5 | 1.3511 | 1.35054189727591 | 0.000558102724091081 | 0.00055810272409108 | -0.0282676761935586 |
6 | 1.3419 | 1.34138031500027 | 0.000519684999729693 | 0.000519684999729693 | -0.259663599579548 |
7 | 1.3716 | 1.37096588240103 | 0.000634117598973228 | 0.000634117598973226 | 0.776495653625226 |
8 | 1.3622 | 1.36160507816996 | 0.000594921830036654 | 0.000594921830036654 | -0.267012491652503 |
9 | 1.3896 | 1.38890077826268 | 0.000699221737316785 | 0.000699221737316783 | 0.713300920276821 |
10 | 1.4227 | 1.42187519386014 | 0.000824806139858582 | 0.000824806139858582 | 0.86221274062846 |
11 | 1.4684 | 1.46740193057621 | 0.000998069423794673 | 0.000998069423794672 | 1.19417670190628 |
12 | 1.457 | 1.45604961545509 | 0.000950384544910498 | 0.000950384544910497 | -0.329928290831618 |
13 | 1.4718 | 1.47423385814563 | 0.000221259830074057 | -0.00243385814562702 | 0.556237939947409 |
14 | 1.4748 | 1.47457581817646 | 0.000224181808764113 | 0.000224181823540915 | 0.00274334120988038 |
15 | 1.5527 | 1.55233484575433 | 0.000365154245674563 | 0.000365154245674559 | 2.06915806125182 |
16 | 1.5751 | 1.574694927557 | 0.000405072442999287 | 0.000405072442999287 | 0.586973589043002 |
17 | 1.5557 | 1.55533074142987 | 0.000369258570128814 | 0.000369258570128809 | -0.527576805336465 |
18 | 1.5553 | 1.55493212998319 | 0.000367870016805312 | 0.000367870016805311 | -0.0204919039620929 |
19 | 1.577 | 1.5765936937144 | 0.000406306285603456 | 0.000406306285603455 | 0.568257134910521 |
20 | 1.4975 | 1.49723741008723 | 0.000262589912773425 | 0.000262589912773422 | -2.12859205406578 |
21 | 1.437 | 1.43684649911351 | 0.000153500886486903 | 0.000153500886486909 | -1.6186328874338 |
22 | 1.3322 | 1.33223458781776 | -3.45878177614303e-05 | -3.45878177614301e-05 | -2.79582325593262 |
23 | 1.2732 | 1.27334007155656 | -0.000140071556555917 | -0.000140071556555916 | -1.57076356687736 |
24 | 1.3449 | 1.34491178571926 | -1.17857192600127e-05 | -1.17857192600131e-05 | 1.91373117609304 |
25 | 1.3239 | 1.32752466949445 | 0.000329515403993621 | -0.00362466949444822 | -0.510875294005611 |
26 | 1.2785 | 1.27893035287514 | -0.00043035293905066 | -0.000430352875141546 | -1.18571499837174 |
27 | 1.305 | 1.30539870740339 | -0.000398707403386623 | -0.000398707403386629 | 0.717610879583461 |
28 | 1.319 | 1.31938180751254 | -0.000381807512541413 | -0.000381807512541411 | 0.383681424967551 |
29 | 1.365 | 1.36532743259318 | -0.000327432593180287 | -0.000327432593180284 | 1.2359338764337 |
30 | 1.4016 | 1.401884192041 | -0.000284192041000697 | -0.000284192041000698 | 0.984004262063929 |
31 | 1.4088 | 1.40907543860026 | -0.000275438600261369 | -0.000275438600261375 | 0.199431192427596 |
32 | 1.4268 | 1.42705408878941 | -0.00025408878940762 | -0.000254088789407622 | 0.486985767479981 |
33 | 1.4562 | 1.45641948658642 | -0.000219486586416108 | -0.000219486586416112 | 0.790193294845272 |
34 | 1.4816 | 1.48178962704577 | -0.000189627045770532 | -0.000189627045770532 | 0.682683607098567 |
35 | 1.4914 | 1.49157799767817 | -0.000177997678170684 | -0.000177997678170681 | 0.266194220330309 |
36 | 1.4614 | 1.46161267442409 | -0.000212674424094368 | -0.000212674424094369 | -0.79466931043553 |
37 | 1.4272 | 1.42936748209931 | 0.000197043818688604 | -0.00216748209931329 | -0.912175997360089 |
38 | 1.3686 | 1.36909434772111 | -0.000494347830797094 | -0.000494347721113301 | -1.50614399035251 |
39 | 1.3569 | 1.35740408340941 | -0.000504083409412514 | -0.000504083409412519 | -0.298641856717812 |
40 | 1.3406 | 1.34111779514223 | -0.000517795142227302 | -0.000517795142227304 | -0.420977165179637 |
41 | 1.2565 | 1.25709028621144 | -0.000590286211443915 | -0.000590286211443928 | -2.22755119751791 |
42 | 1.2209 | 1.22152062391762 | -0.000620623917622598 | -0.000620623917622599 | -0.933045010456818 |
43 | 1.277 | 1.27757151515353 | -0.000571515153528945 | -0.000571515153528951 | 1.51166374355889 |
44 | 1.2894 | 1.28996029411993 | -0.000560294119933747 | -0.00056029411993375 | 0.345704527765733 |
45 | 1.3067 | 1.30724485739246 | -0.000544857392463413 | -0.000544857392463418 | 0.475995809402553 |
46 | 1.3898 | 1.39027262522031 | -0.000472625220314216 | -0.000472625220314217 | 2.22922512925729 |
47 | 1.3661 | 1.36659266609539 | -0.000492666095389852 | -0.000492666095389849 | -0.619034671901758 |
48 | 1.322 | 1.3225302586237 | -0.00053025862370105 | -0.000530258623701051 | -1.16218306804603 |
49 | 1.336 | 1.32939570655247 | -0.00060039032251091 | 0.00660429344752649 | 0.207218023027775 |
50 | 1.3649 | 1.36517131026125 | -0.000271310351961002 | -0.000271310261246996 | 0.919854110190372 |
51 | 1.3999 | 1.40014700207738 | -0.00024700207737642 | -0.000247002077376425 | 0.940100266205888 |
52 | 1.4442 | 1.4444163223246 | -0.000216322324600395 | -0.000216322324600394 | 1.1873292462828 |
53 | 1.4349 | 1.43512257399526 | -0.000222573995255684 | -0.000222573995255694 | -0.242110988903206 |
54 | 1.4388 | 1.43901973866245 | -0.00021973866245064 | -0.000219738662450643 | 0.109880682568382 |
55 | 1.4264 | 1.42662810997589 | -0.000228109975888425 | -0.00022810997588843 | -0.324645657714 |
56 | 1.4343 | 1.4345225274829 | -0.000222527482903911 | -0.000222527482903914 | 0.216642004567012 |
57 | 1.377 | 1.37726170213711 | -0.00026170213711168 | -0.000261702137111674 | -1.52131073704159 |
58 | 1.3706 | 1.37086591221785 | -0.000265912217851919 | -0.00026591221785192 | -0.163606765219653 |
59 | 1.3556 | 1.35587601097552 | -0.000276010975519942 | -0.000276010975519941 | -0.39271424446009 |
60 | 1.3179 | 1.31820164384412 | -0.000301643844115872 | -0.000301643844115874 | -0.99747858461664 |
61 | 1.2905 | 1.28953289055889 | -8.79190501926321e-05 | 0.000967109441113496 | -0.787058251233449 |
62 | 1.3224 | 1.32224245705398 | 0.000157542843343732 | 0.000157542946017674 | 0.837390395757859 |
63 | 1.3201 | 1.3199438606646 | 0.000156139335398028 | 0.000156139335398024 | -0.0655057338473819 |
64 | 1.3162 | 1.31604617581257 | 0.000153824187430145 | 0.000153824187430146 | -0.10811629950424 |
65 | 1.2789 | 1.27876754137064 | 0.000132458629355665 | 0.000132458629355651 | -0.998330973914385 |
66 | 1.2526 | 1.25248261118707 | 0.000117388812932266 | 0.000117388812932263 | -0.704556798470277 |
67 | 1.2288 | 1.22869623932852 | 0.000103760671479393 | 0.000103760671479388 | -0.63751775288016 |
68 | 1.24 | 1.23988992028577 | 0.000110079714228485 | 0.000110079714228485 | 0.29577019321982 |
69 | 1.2856 | 1.28546402960893 | 0.000135970391073061 | 0.000135970391073063 | 1.21253375092339 |