Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
61 | 683118 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.3358 | 0.2988 | 0.2988 | 0.2988 |
62 | 847224 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.2995 | 0.3358 | 0.3358 | 0.2988 |
63 | 1073256 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.2527 | 0.2995 | 0.2995 | 0.2988 |
64 | 1514326 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.1737 | 0.2527 | 0.2527 | 0.2988 |
65 | 1503734 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.1754 | 0.1737 | 0.1737 | 0.2988 |
66 | 1507712 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.1747 | 0.1754 | 0.1754 | 0.2988 |
67 | 2865698 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.0377 | 0.1747 | 0.1747 | 0.2988 |
68 | 2788128 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.0418 | 0.0377 | 0.0377 | 0.2988 |
69 | 1391596 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.1939 | 0.0418 | 0.0418 | 0.2988 |
70 | 1366378 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.1982 | 0.1939 | 0.1939 | 0.2988 |
71 | 946295 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.2785 | 0.1982 | 0.1982 | 0.2988 |
72 | 859626 | 0 | -3158538.4639 | 3158538.4639 | 0.2969 | 0.2785 | 0.2785 | 0.2988 |
Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
61 | Inf | Inf | 0 | 466650201924 | 0 | 0 |
62 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 717788506176 | 592219354050 | 769557.8952 |
63 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 1151878441536 | 778772383212 | 882480.8118 |
64 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 2293183234276 | 1157375095978 | 1075813.6902 |
65 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 2261215942756 | 1378143265333.6 | 1173943.4677 |
66 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 2273195474944 | 1527318633602 | 1235847.3343 |
67 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 8212225027204 | 2482305261259.43 | 1575533.326 |
68 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 7773657744384 | 3143724321650 | 1773055.0814 |
69 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 1936539427216 | 3009592666712.89 | 1734817.7618 |
70 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 1866988838884 | 2895332283930 | 1701567.5961 |
71 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 895474227025 | 2713527006029.55 | 1647278.6668 |
72 | Inf | Inf | Inf | 738956859876 | 2548979493850.08 | 1596552.3774 |