| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 606297 | 232549.5544 | 980044.4456 | 0.3435 | 0.0998 | 0.4544 | 0.0998 |
| 62 | 847224 | 931858 | 403299.2936 | 1460416.7064 | 0.3768 | 0.8218 | 0.4677 | 0.6181 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1138530 | 491180.4351 | 1785879.5649 | 0.4217 | 0.8111 | 0.4736 | 0.8081 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1378764 | 631269.1089 | 2126258.8911 | 0.3611 | 0.7885 | 0.4772 | 0.9169 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1639657 | 803932.3053 | 2475381.6947 | 0.3749 | 0.6156 | 0.4796 | 0.9678 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1473493 | 558002.4657 | 2388983.5343 | 0.4708 | 0.4742 | 0.4813 | 0.9087 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2896932 | 1908089.2059 | 3885774.7941 | 0.4753 | 0.9971 | 0.4827 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2753823 | 1696705.5871 | 3810940.4129 | 0.4746 | 0.4178 | 0.4838 | 0.9998 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1385172 | 263929.6633 | 2506414.3367 | 0.4955 | 0.0071 | 0.4848 | 0.8249 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1348345 | 166451.8023 | 2530238.1977 | 0.4881 | 0.4714 | 0.4855 | 0.7953 |
| 71 | 946295 | 942672 | -296908.0433 | 2182252.0433 | 0.4977 | 0.2514 | 0.4862 | 0.5577 |
| 72 | 859626 | 828997 | -465702.1299 | 2123696.1299 | 0.4815 | 0.4295 | 0.4868 | 0.4868 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.3145 | 0.1267 | 0 | 5901466041 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.2894 | -0.0908 | 0.1088 | 7162913956 | 6532189998.5 | 80821.9648 |
| 63 | 0.2901 | -0.0573 | 0.0916 | 4260695076 | 5775025024.3333 | 75993.5854 |
| 64 | 0.2766 | 0.0983 | 0.0933 | 18377055844 | 8925532729.25 | 94475.0376 |
| 65 | 0.26 | -0.0829 | 0.0912 | 18475061929 | 10835438569.2 | 104093.4127 |
| 66 | 0.317 | 0.0232 | 0.0799 | 1170939961 | 9224688801.1667 | 96045.2435 |
| 67 | 0.1742 | -0.0108 | 0.07 | 975562756 | 8046242223.2857 | 89700.8485 |
| 68 | 0.1959 | 0.0125 | 0.0628 | 1176833025 | 7187566073.5 | 84779.5145 |
| 69 | 0.413 | 0.0046 | 0.0564 | 41267776 | 6393532929.3333 | 79959.5706 |
| 70 | 0.4472 | 0.0134 | 0.0521 | 325189089 | 5786698545.3 | 76070.3526 |
| 71 | 0.6709 | 0.0038 | 0.0477 | 13126129 | 5261828325.6364 | 72538.461 |
| 72 | 0.7968 | 0.0369 | 0.0468 | 938135641 | 4901520601.9167 | 70010.8606 |
