| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 54.3 | 54.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 55.9 | 55.652895753806 | 1.32963888392296 | 0.0116284351277305 | 0.244182411767075 |
| 3 | 63.9 | 63.2145510657995 | 6.38744776294528 | -0.00312409374176502 | 0.86748984538436 |
| 4 | 64 | 64.5492431107398 | 2.24843209238815 | 0.00526977113022229 | -0.700950632898699 |
| 5 | 60.7 | 61.2916313885406 | -2.27332987398094 | 0.00725201835561575 | -0.760540076715445 |
| 6 | 67.8 | 66.9320532794934 | 4.22720646020429 | 0.00752464856601335 | 1.0930672251612 |
| 7 | 70.5 | 70.5578888030993 | 3.73322031375857 | 0.00749601090311243 | -0.0830639146293572 |
| 8 | 76.6 | 76.3668026429325 | 5.43820904449408 | 0.00752430643824507 | 0.286692714869682 |
| 9 | 76.2 | 76.7428372853867 | 1.28016098216429 | 0.00752329432929318 | -0.699172706032201 |
| 10 | 71.8 | 72.4034293180019 | -3.33572173857451 | 0.00753040470628784 | -0.77615726826237 |
| 11 | 67.8 | 67.9175178203661 | -4.28048196921692 | 0.00753094711094032 | -0.15886073394289 |
| 12 | 69.7 | 69.0986785933446 | 0.205686526302996 | 0.00753070472958719 | 0.754345913701614 |
| 13 | 76.7 | 75.1677103544499 | 4.94807802286347 | 0.904584866383885 | 0.861916924649272 |
| 14 | 74.2 | 74.7769788323584 | 1.09963499479116 | -0.165066803609587 | -0.616666082860674 |
| 15 | 75.8 | 75.956720066564 | 1.16586005024422 | -0.165305267898016 | 0.0109625782932496 |
| 16 | 84.3 | 83.7678366295359 | 6.61391101017096 | -0.18236473965871 | 0.911212214021849 |
| 17 | 84.9 | 85.5987749067459 | 2.68820556276126 | -0.179358359741552 | -0.660011917228858 |
| 18 | 84.4 | 84.9430173066845 | -0.0585949382913024 | -0.179451314826684 | -0.461870893766136 |
| 19 | 89.4 | 89.1187602006425 | 3.41972400572855 | -0.179148086457567 | 0.584874002760128 |
| 20 | 88.5 | 89.0576706708467 | 0.560534437885692 | -0.179227634576789 | -0.480770484971255 |
| 21 | 76.5 | 77.9480262356249 | -9.02530871722435 | -0.1792409565361 | -1.61185243937049 |
| 22 | 71.4 | 71.3187488891535 | -7.05722297033667 | -0.179245348832501 | 0.330932161176523 |
| 23 | 72.1 | 71.4930400502287 | -1.11729446068149 | -0.179250893655565 | 0.998794584238847 |
| 24 | 75.8 | 75.4297763381849 | 3.03406319150497 | -0.17925136941784 | 0.698047718084126 |
| 25 | 66.6 | 67.0316916994275 | -6.26872305116445 | 0.799628987099629 | -1.64197256209659 |
| 26 | 71.7 | 70.7971202939885 | 1.25071452211147 | 0.0387972677349685 | 1.22700705507484 |
| 27 | 75.4 | 75.0450550201117 | 3.72403570701488 | 0.0324080590015908 | 0.411249881091446 |
| 28 | 80.9 | 80.6664349437338 | 5.28038887268778 | 0.0289131810408424 | 0.260701610140643 |
| 29 | 80.7 | 81.1861066556115 | 1.37210327824006 | 0.0310588978003664 | -0.657109280167184 |
| 30 | 85 | 84.7325036453751 | 3.15809759267381 | 0.031102228440575 | 0.300312886932576 |
| 31 | 91.5 | 91.1178488144615 | 5.80908240235445 | 0.0312679118838537 | 0.445759629548489 |
| 32 | 87.7 | 88.5767197493064 | -1.04985546562092 | 0.0311311026678382 | -1.15332511220963 |
| 33 | 95.3 | 94.5096887031652 | 4.68580967122785 | 0.0311368173814167 | 0.964447851439359 |
| 34 | 102.4 | 102.057689453018 | 7.03679741563595 | 0.0311330558108891 | 0.395316848963787 |
| 35 | 114.2 | 113.67128000529 | 10.7961525717253 | 0.0311305399229329 | 0.632132788199808 |
| 36 | 111.7 | 112.923885047889 | 1.31433537889628 | 0.0311313189694011 | -1.59436054642384 |
| 37 | 113.7 | 114.072546184189 | 1.17916309365192 | -0.354654727612315 | -0.0235441888955331 |
| 38 | 118.8 | 118.448795871402 | 3.6259110677974 | 0.0599106989313238 | 0.402600272988935 |
| 39 | 129 | 128.281001246654 | 8.74214832169034 | 0.0496061182125715 | 0.85281349947598 |
| 40 | 136.4 | 136.415209408823 | 8.24331788373879 | 0.0504792805447971 | -0.0836286765443845 |
| 41 | 155 | 153.943913208946 | 15.8670294781015 | 0.047217215196067 | 1.2818210519783 |
| 42 | 166 | 166.331164568755 | 13.0087064515624 | 0.0471631680619227 | -0.480623984602833 |
| 43 | 168.7 | 169.701180650601 | 5.09120796009151 | 0.0467775063330202 | -1.33131801079985 |
| 44 | 145.5 | 148.330533450786 | -16.6447166986019 | 0.0464396102097925 | -3.65487911756718 |
| 45 | 127.3 | 127.688186281442 | -19.9283544097458 | 0.0464370603720554 | -0.552141252759101 |
| 46 | 91.5 | 93.0525269294973 | -32.0088559350715 | 0.0464521247224927 | -2.03132739035969 |
| 47 | 69 | 68.1779150380521 | -26.1488225924138 | 0.0464490682208595 | 0.985360271175534 |
| 48 | 54 | 52.7842490977251 | -17.3145859319277 | 0.0464485025192332 | 1.48547035898322 |
| 49 | 56.3 | 53.777714097656 | -2.35508049021904 | 0.542240139822795 | 2.58600276209511 |
| 50 | 54.2 | 53.989087394392 | -0.364895184840919 | -0.0311046716416954 | 0.329034382727596 |
| 51 | 59.3 | 58.7811014170086 | 3.88349738478876 | -0.038116455419403 | 0.709276061447579 |
| 52 | 63.4 | 63.3633532417289 | 4.45695298337362 | -0.0389388976073732 | 0.0961913555031562 |
| 53 | 73.3 | 72.7993322680374 | 8.54526919026264 | -0.0403720235209633 | 0.687403232130544 |
| 54 | 86.7 | 86.2112055772285 | 12.5427319736869 | -0.0403100988897095 | 0.67216935823443 |
| 55 | 81.3 | 83.0483860150546 | -0.358166642588173 | -0.0408249200529714 | -2.16927188186462 |
| 56 | 89.6 | 88.9591889753238 | 4.79119031279563 | -0.0407593393733104 | 0.865860459007658 |
| 57 | 85.3 | 86.1654035825278 | -1.43907773848499 | -0.0407633029009632 | -1.04761496502711 |
| 58 | 92.4 | 91.6842978747755 | 4.27616428660894 | -0.0407691416242673 | 0.961013716855632 |
| 59 | 96.8 | 96.7544472560407 | 4.9283398303846 | -0.04076942030496 | 0.109662835194859 |
| 60 | 93.6 | 94.429362616358 | -1.02959003057658 | -0.0407691077462413 | -1.00182149850508 |
| 61 | 97.6 | 96.6468577390878 | 1.62611303527835 | 0.601632431360569 | 0.456843990226146 |
| 62 | 94.2 | 94.6283144993426 | -1.22584169358209 | -0.0765654908734921 | -0.472952590658363 |
| 63 | 99.9 | 99.3412875362545 | 3.66449200849069 | -0.0834023884883439 | 0.817345179581761 |
| 64 | 106.4 | 106.146529434614 | 6.24239310116854 | -0.0865338462125268 | 0.432578323245557 |
| 65 | 96 | 97.6812648829564 | -5.83482456877369 | -0.0829483696800213 | -2.0306648521777 |
| 66 | 94.9 | 94.6753546399883 | -3.51113947909708 | -0.08291788377223 | 0.390725411122072 |
| 67 | 94.8 | 94.5181727358684 | -0.756136190624209 | -0.082824772644756 | 0.463250919034791 |
| 68 | 95.9 | 95.7650384459333 | 0.889135039079157 | -0.0828070265244935 | 0.276651112086007 |
| 69 | 96.2 | 96.3192230582443 | 0.614008149125127 | -0.0828071747596534 | -0.0462623830580563 |
| 70 | 103.1 | 102.569983002933 | 5.24400734143831 | -0.0828111807249408 | 0.778530937872914 |
| 71 | 106.9 | 107.064315689647 | 4.62822814714216 | -0.0828109578760966 | -0.103542815959161 |
| 72 | 114.2 | 114.028811621343 | 6.54722788940972 | -0.082811043137832 | 0.322678387005867 |
| 73 | 118.2 | 117.713587249304 | 4.20456775119737 | 0.796488087675678 | -0.40161703405431 |
| 74 | 123.9 | 123.780009327797 | 5.67109987925144 | -0.0627201885535509 | 0.24371956023975 |
| 75 | 137.1 | 136.416056320726 | 11.4045003088383 | -0.0696724730946839 | 0.959022711175982 |
| 76 | 146.2 | 146.420149805487 | 10.2549460049565 | -0.0684613895499646 | -0.192951040360867 |
| 77 | 136.4 | 138.445749662299 | -4.71470197374378 | -0.064607223031978 | -2.51701659938666 |
| 78 | 133.2 | 133.310349902059 | -5.0602648002802 | -0.0646111548171201 | -0.0581060668742213 |
| 79 | 135.9 | 135.207965181813 | 0.655046237868486 | -0.0644436372451306 | 0.961023801247411 |
| 80 | 127.1 | 128.017478009053 | -5.7892887798625 | -0.0645039188823223 | -1.08361007055046 |
| 81 | 128.5 | 127.943168020669 | -1.09502920199963 | -0.0645017254394692 | 0.78933627596768 |
| 82 | 126.6 | 126.682508922703 | -1.23107676709816 | -0.0645016233553823 | -0.0228762973969793 |
| 83 | 132.6 | 131.957195757278 | 4.1127267105559 | -0.0645033005245299 | 0.89855660136647 |
| 84 | 130.9 | 131.465136277122 | 0.330376239254459 | -0.0645031547834353 | -0.635999433604986 |
