| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.80806834048429 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1180 | 1177.9432229574 | 2.05677704259847 |
| 14 | 1210 | 1207.3835997229 | 2.61640027710041 |
| 15 | 950 | 946.865180943665 | 3.13481905633478 |
| 16 | 1070 | 1064.87327780389 | 5.12672219610636 |
| 17 | 1120 | 1114.17015714205 | 5.82984285794782 |
| 18 | 1220 | 1213.58137986494 | 6.41862013506443 |
| 19 | 1170 | 1169.23297715604 | 0.76702284395742 |
| 20 | 1120 | 1089.61318210414 | 30.3868178958635 |
| 21 | 1180 | 1167.08402536397 | 12.9159746360306 |
| 22 | 1250 | 1223.06992178031 | 26.930078219689 |
| 23 | 1240 | 1262.03983885714 | -22.0398388571382 |
| 24 | 1230 | 1209.28274682256 | 20.7172531774374 |
| 25 | 1120 | 1189.0061481242 | -69.0061481241951 |
| 26 | 1330 | 1219.13057146909 | 110.869428530907 |
| 27 | 990 | 956.954558406526 | 33.0454415934742 |
| 28 | 1110 | 1077.51864297529 | 32.481357024714 |
| 29 | 1090 | 1127.77440848547 | -37.7744084854687 |
| 30 | 1210 | 1228.44893525817 | -18.4489352581736 |
| 31 | 1220 | 1179.13896693107 | 40.8610330689257 |
| 32 | 1220 | 1123.00612185753 | 96.9938781424689 |
| 33 | 1100 | 1186.85571849515 | -86.855718495153 |
| 34 | 1200 | 1254.69305004282 | -54.69305004282 |
| 35 | 1320 | 1254.0806621521 | 65.9193378478963 |
| 36 | 1180 | 1235.72368335276 | -55.723683352762 |
| 37 | 1110 | 1142.20449204605 | -32.2044920460489 |
| 38 | 1300 | 1319.06126801617 | -19.0612680161748 |
| 39 | 1060 | 991.424612921096 | 68.5753870789044 |
| 40 | 1130 | 1112.4755369678 | 17.5244630322024 |
| 41 | 1160 | 1105.90273797411 | 54.0972620258867 |
| 42 | 1260 | 1223.10432296609 | 36.8956770339128 |
| 43 | 1210 | 1221.70369073599 | -11.7036907359936 |
| 44 | 1190 | 1210.8389684789 | -20.8389684788963 |
| 45 | 1130 | 1125.45305241175 | 4.54694758824985 |
| 46 | 1170 | 1220.01173774723 | -50.0117377472268 |
| 47 | 1370 | 1317.61691419861 | 52.3830858013935 |
| 48 | 1170 | 1200.04166150885 | -30.0416615088527 |
| 49 | 1040 | 1124.93694822209 | -84.9369482220918 |
| 50 | 1340 | 1313.87833378052 | 26.1216662194838 |
| 51 | 1050 | 1055.03941613133 | -5.03941613133225 |
| 52 | 1130 | 1135.45710676081 | -5.45710676080876 |
| 53 | 1150 | 1158.61167833243 | -8.61167833243326 |
| 54 | 1220 | 1262.71505556421 | -42.7150555642118 |
| 55 | 1210 | 1221.71862678787 | -11.7186267878674 |
| 56 | 1150 | 1203.32332795204 | -53.3233279520375 |
| 57 | 1130 | 1137.93865970182 | -7.93865970182105 |
| 58 | 1150 | 1188.7980807798 | -38.7980807797994 |
| 59 | 1440 | 1370.54484386064 | 69.4551561393623 |
| 60 | 1160 | 1184.92339706628 | -24.923397066284 |
| 61 | 1130 | 1064.52376029071 | 65.4762397092884 |
| 62 | 1350 | 1345.37048543764 | 4.62951456235805 |
| 63 | 1050 | 1059.13677284636 | -9.13677284636287 |
| 64 | 1150 | 1139.8337414645 | 10.1662585354982 |
| 65 | 1120 | 1160.59348584528 | -40.5934858452836 |
| 66 | 1170 | 1237.72708529263 | -67.7270852926315 |
| 67 | 1100 | 1221.6480742483 | -121.648074248303 |
| 68 | 1120 | 1169.22424073547 | -49.2242407354718 |
| 69 | 1210 | 1140.2853701293 | 69.7146298707005 |
| 70 | 1170 | 1166.40321849416 | 3.59678150584477 |
| 71 | 1370 | 1437.70220002705 | -67.7022000270456 |
| 72 | 1170 | 1173.78539346933 | -3.7853934693278 |
| 73 | 1110 | 1126.06334344718 | -16.0633434471752 |
| 74 | 1320 | 1359.52438389773 | -39.5243838977312 |
| 75 | 1060 | 1059.86623620614 | 0.133763793858634 |
| 76 | 1150 | 1156.898448186 | -6.89844818600272 |
| 77 | 1160 | 1136.47911462871 | 23.5208853712945 |
| 78 | 1230 | 1192.10635810922 | 37.8936418907799 |
| 79 | 1140 | 1131.99073279252 | 8.00926720747566 |
| 80 | 1100 | 1138.13166644897 | -38.1316664489657 |
| 81 | 1270 | 1205.81410429183 | 64.1858957081706 |
| 82 | 1160 | 1178.28862038568 | -18.2886203856845 |
| 83 | 1380 | 1393.60721295377 | -13.6072129537686 |
| 84 | 1150 | 1179.70488287319 | -29.7048828731897 |
| 85 | 1180 | 1121.61388828464 | 58.3861117153576 |
| 86 | 1370 | 1337.75429075416 | 32.2457092458376 |
| 87 | 1080 | 1068.08775408641 | 11.9122459135933 |
| 88 | 1160 | 1160.13106425349 | -0.131064253494742 |
| 89 | 1230 | 1164.31883410951 | 65.6811658904855 |
| 90 | 1210 | 1232.06833057663 | -22.068330576627 |
| 91 | 1130 | 1147.15479730607 | -17.1547973060688 |
| 92 | 1110 | 1115.76754626954 | -5.76754626954448 |
| 93 | 1250 | 1267.27073547118 | -17.2707354711833 |
| 94 | 1210 | 1172.37650507826 | 37.6234949217376 |
| 95 | 1370 | 1393.14093562866 | -23.140935628662 |
| 96 | 1080 | 1164.49697016728 | -84.4969701672826 |
| 97 | 1220 | 1177.68352444708 | 42.3164755529197 |
| 98 | 1360 | 1374.17739570479 | -14.1773957047885 |
| 99 | 1120 | 1085.90021096972 | 34.0997890302835 |
| 100 | 1150 | 1168.83138502678 | -18.8313850267834 |
| 101 | 1180 | 1226.62960002028 | -46.6296000202797 |
| 102 | 1250 | 1223.44172699486 | 26.5582730051358 |
| 103 | 1040 | 1141.87954325936 | -101.879543259363 |
| 104 | 1180 | 1119.52055595584 | 60.4794440441606 |
| 105 | 1250 | 1262.79923067139 | -12.7992306713882 |
| 106 | 1120 | 1211.87512409926 | -91.8751240992644 |
| 107 | 1430 | 1384.82942939763 | 45.1705706023733 |
| 108 | 1150 | 1104.49757992856 | 45.5024200714395 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1221.02591213709 | 1150.13438048438 | 1291.91744378981 |
| 110 | 1373.00103646795 | 1302.10950481524 | 1443.89256812067 |
| 111 | 1121.84945448172 | 1050.95792282901 | 1192.74098613444 |
| 112 | 1162.30592009462 | 1091.41438844191 | 1233.19745174734 |
| 113 | 1197.90188125 | 1127.01034959729 | 1268.79341290272 |
| 114 | 1254.27023057257 | 1183.37869891985 | 1325.16176222528 |
| 115 | 1067.52181123559 | 996.63027958288 | 1138.41334288831 |
| 116 | 1177.17294744382 | 1106.2814157911 | 1248.06447909653 |
| 117 | 1261.86332739607 | 1190.97179574335 | 1332.75485904878 |
| 118 | 1146.1727574969 | 1075.28122584418 | 1217.06428914961 |
| 119 | 1431.99209106484 | 1361.10055941213 | 1502.88362271756 |
| 120 | 1149.82222285441 | 1063.09520030121 | 1236.54924540761 |
