| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.380162943418813 |
| beta | 0.0252555708743968 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 319980 | 325101.524744003 | -5121.52474400308 |
| 14 | 314086 | 317303.095120185 | -3217.09512018471 |
| 15 | 311490 | 313806.066798973 | -2316.06679897313 |
| 16 | 314086 | 316126.059114899 | -2040.05911489902 |
| 17 | 323268 | 325244.494503624 | -1976.49450362392 |
| 18 | 321934 | 323639.634729579 | -1705.63472957921 |
| 19 | 309526 | 309795.80659297 | -269.806592969748 |
| 20 | 299020 | 302605.245135898 | -3585.24513589783 |
| 21 | 297054 | 301237.780856197 | -4183.780856197 |
| 22 | 293126 | 298911.300025601 | -5785.30002560141 |
| 23 | 295784 | 296499.624274133 | -715.624274132773 |
| 24 | 299020 | 296827.706309556 | 2192.29369044426 |
| 25 | 297748 | 294249.708730002 | 3498.29126999818 |
| 26 | 295090 | 290971.014677866 | 4118.98532213416 |
| 27 | 289900 | 290726.664396417 | -826.664396417211 |
| 28 | 295090 | 293355.228994646 | 1734.77100535377 |
| 29 | 299712 | 303147.225745087 | -3435.22574508743 |
| 30 | 298380 | 301016.643123487 | -2636.64312348654 |
| 31 | 283312 | 288358.092841616 | -5046.09284161642 |
| 32 | 276788 | 277731.881283532 | -943.881283531664 |
| 33 | 270264 | 276799.389429656 | -6535.38942965592 |
| 34 | 265010 | 272449.921061792 | -7439.92106179229 |
| 35 | 264380 | 272041.923481027 | -7661.92348102678 |
| 36 | 268300 | 270950.350703561 | -2650.35070356115 |
| 37 | 263046 | 267169.739752109 | -4123.73975210934 |
| 38 | 261082 | 261325.38553325 | -243.385533250286 |
| 39 | 259118 | 256378.296732122 | 2739.70326787824 |
| 40 | 270264 | 260929.660126232 | 9334.33987376821 |
| 41 | 271536 | 269348.028643214 | 2187.97135678597 |
| 42 | 265010 | 269499.449418514 | -4489.44941851427 |
| 43 | 247340 | 255583.38385011 | -8243.38385010979 |
| 44 | 239490 | 246527.765682528 | -7037.76568252846 |
| 45 | 227082 | 239763.723427366 | -12681.7234273661 |
| 46 | 221820 | 232211.190624576 | -10391.1906245761 |
| 47 | 224416 | 229541.255685049 | -5125.25568504876 |
| 48 | 228344 | 231184.273992935 | -2840.27399293522 |
| 49 | 228344 | 226278.406792237 | 2065.59320776255 |
| 50 | 225118 | 224860.156283927 | 257.843716073054 |
| 51 | 224416 | 221778.983443715 | 2637.01655628523 |
| 52 | 234930 | 228641.287810014 | 6288.71218998558 |
| 53 | 243420 | 230767.233787186 | 12652.7662128136 |
| 54 | 239490 | 230874.73174237 | 8615.2682576298 |
| 55 | 226380 | 220909.533572358 | 5470.46642764163 |
| 56 | 219864 | 218095.210116072 | 1768.78988392817 |
| 57 | 206122 | 211604.439047947 | -5482.43904794726 |
| 58 | 197634 | 208193.652323929 | -10559.6523239291 |
| 59 | 204158 | 208306.647946311 | -4148.64794631131 |
| 60 | 210682 | 211309.905188476 | -627.905188476259 |
| 61 | 210682 | 210341.922973016 | 340.077026984189 |
| 62 | 202194 | 207387.250495152 | -5193.25049515167 |
| 63 | 201562 | 203758.773938233 | -2196.77393823329 |
| 64 | 212638 | 210071.396274367 | 2566.603725633 |
| 65 | 219864 | 213999.437801255 | 5864.56219874538 |
| 66 | 217260 | 209481.416278921 | 7778.58372107946 |
| 67 | 204158 | 198668.69851568 | 5489.30148432023 |
| 68 | 195670 | 194121.22114311 | 1548.77885689033 |
| 69 | 177304 | 184108.91955822 | -6804.91955822019 |
| 70 | 170150 | 177197.823986706 | -7047.82398670644 |
| 71 | 172744 | 181394.236990281 | -8650.23699028121 |
| 72 | 183892 | 183661.791768103 | 230.208231897035 |
| 73 | 184522 | 183297.151981129 | 1224.84801887124 |
| 74 | 168184 | 177731.291851936 | -9547.29185193649 |
| 75 | 174078 | 173873.099290885 | 204.900709114678 |
| 76 | 188452 | 182263.782607228 | 6188.21739277232 |
| 77 | 194976 | 188561.719971926 | 6414.28002807358 |
| 78 | 191046 | 185769.184463502 | 5276.81553649751 |
| 79 | 173384 | 174273.094862267 | -889.094862266997 |
| 80 | 160968 | 165792.458924787 | -4824.45892478741 |
| 81 | 146594 | 150230.456576953 | -3636.45657695338 |
| 82 | 135448 | 144607.63403274 | -9159.63403273956 |
| 83 | 140008 | 145423.00109766 | -5415.00109766028 |
| 84 | 149820 | 152023.319483249 | -2203.31948324948 |
| 85 | 147226 | 150752.809392039 | -3526.80939203911 |
| 86 | 132852 | 138423.277804816 | -5571.27780481568 |
| 87 | 137412 | 140412.695080655 | -3000.69508065539 |
| 88 | 151786 | 148137.545605254 | 3648.45439474646 |
| 89 | 159642 | 151959.162791583 | 7682.83720841707 |
| 90 | 155082 | 149410.257078352 | 5671.74292164776 |
| 91 | 137412 | 137163.688231873 | 248.311768127111 |
| 92 | 129564 | 128235.016439566 | 1328.98356043405 |
| 93 | 117786 | 117816.82050469 | -30.8205046903313 |
| 94 | 105368 | 111071.66428108 | -5703.66428107968 |
| 95 | 107332 | 113709.515786508 | -6377.51578650765 |
| 96 | 117146 | 119180.764891169 | -2034.76489116877 |
| 97 | 118416 | 116821.364331726 | 1594.63566827391 |
| 98 | 106638 | 107123.90258672 | -485.902586720331 |
| 99 | 108604 | 111057.189112601 | -2453.18911260071 |
| 100 | 125004 | 119995.271008295 | 5008.72899170489 |
| 101 | 128924 | 125269.503131536 | 3654.49686846377 |
| 102 | 122346 | 120732.833070248 | 1613.16692975219 |
| 103 | 98150 | 106893.576456111 | -8743.57645611053 |
| 104 | 85742 | 96599.9306251865 | -10857.9306251865 |
| 105 | 69342 | 83269.4185344786 | -13927.4185344786 |
| 106 | 53004 | 70177.1215304444 | -17173.1215304444 |
| 107 | 58258 | 64970.4985050131 | -6712.49850501313 |
| 108 | 65412 | 67056.6365648604 | -1644.63656486035 |
| 109 | 64150 | 65211.9917750035 | -1061.99177500347 |
| 110 | 51670 | 56936.0838969608 | -5266.08389696084 |
| 111 | 58888 | 54695.4823216243 | 4192.5176783757 |
| 112 | 76560 | 61848.979209954 | 14711.020790046 |
| 113 | 84408 | 66962.8773104128 | 17445.1226895872 |
| 114 | 80488 | 67946.1477114198 | 12541.8522885802 |
| 115 | 64782 | 59048.3401008853 | 5733.65989911467 |
| 116 | 52372 | 54952.2106085802 | -2580.21060858022 |
| 117 | 39262 | 45836.1581294742 | -6574.15812947418 |
| 118 | 24186 | 35851.8116676705 | -11665.8116676705 |
| 119 | 26854 | 35038.5667404018 | -8184.56674040177 |
| 120 | 31414 | 34940.1850986821 | -3526.18509868212 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 31746.346829006 | 19851.2975110941 | 43641.3961469178 |
| 122 | 25224.9484505445 | 12657.5931825747 | 37792.3037185144 |
| 123 | 26452.2666915739 | 12516.1521597791 | 40388.3812233686 |
| 124 | 29503.5816857733 | 13294.7440772532 | 45712.4192942934 |
| 125 | 27136.0809151849 | 9637.20030895621 | 44634.9615214136 |
| 126 | 21605.6040453065 | 4008.86928814488 | 39202.3388024682 |
| 127 | 14516.7385890314 | -1934.95457638862 | 30968.4317544514 |
| 128 | 9907.86030727421 | -6107.67614821185 | 25923.3967627603 |
| 129 | 6107.01786476914 | -9341.23401802116 | 21555.2697475594 |
| 130 | 2962.80376780433 | -11480.367630337 | 17405.9751659457 |
| 131 | 1837.89251491639 | -15363.2697196224 | 19039.0547494552 |
| 132 | -222.337350121086 | -17988.5277170226 | 17543.8530167804 |
