| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.400851431469249 |
| beta | 0.0368982697384306 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 143992 | 146316.667735043 | -2324.66773504278 |
| 14 | 141340 | 142758.159854306 | -1418.159854306 |
| 15 | 140172 | 141149.551343863 | -977.551343862637 |
| 16 | 141340 | 142161.602693187 | -821.602693187189 |
| 17 | 145472 | 146223.680850165 | -751.680850164819 |
| 18 | 144872 | 145497.002707168 | -625.002707168431 |
| 19 | 139288 | 139315.692769768 | -27.6927697682404 |
| 20 | 134560 | 135957.572446351 | -1397.57244635123 |
| 21 | 133676 | 135387.996118304 | -1711.99611830449 |
| 22 | 131908 | 134342.227615443 | -2434.22761544253 |
| 23 | 133104 | 133254.947593695 | -150.947593694931 |
| 24 | 134560 | 133482.191012877 | 1077.80898712348 |
| 25 | 133988 | 132286.770162828 | 1701.22983717185 |
| 26 | 132792 | 130773.698452525 | 2018.30154747522 |
| 27 | 130456 | 130745.934592013 | -289.934592012985 |
| 28 | 132792 | 132076.569080721 | 715.430919278937 |
| 29 | 134872 | 136768.911343229 | -1896.91134322865 |
| 30 | 134272 | 135614.374566948 | -1342.37456694845 |
| 31 | 127492 | 129448.081658447 | -1956.08165844684 |
| 32 | 124556 | 124412.379344828 | 143.620655172228 |
| 33 | 121620 | 124211.178250443 | -2591.17825044291 |
| 34 | 119256 | 122306.232888966 | -3050.2328889655 |
| 35 | 118972 | 122256.907589218 | -3284.9075892179 |
| 36 | 120736 | 121834.610227513 | -1098.61022751259 |
| 37 | 118372 | 119978.603336273 | -1606.60333627294 |
| 38 | 117488 | 117118.942782945 | 369.057217054884 |
| 39 | 116604 | 114812.094833098 | 1791.90516690223 |
| 40 | 121620 | 117375.387234152 | 4244.61276584833 |
| 41 | 122192 | 121765.21127813 | 426.788721870224 |
| 42 | 119256 | 121756.737435294 | -2500.73743529449 |
| 43 | 111304 | 114623.632882067 | -3319.63288206654 |
| 44 | 107772 | 110144.436328563 | -2372.43632856257 |
| 45 | 102188 | 107103.958620483 | -4915.95862048271 |
| 46 | 99820 | 103765.533884307 | -3945.53388430737 |
| 47 | 100988 | 102976.93283215 | -1988.93283214995 |
| 48 | 102756 | 104163.426090765 | -1407.42609076524 |
| 49 | 102756 | 101654.079313621 | 1101.92068637865 |
| 50 | 101304 | 100878.722455175 | 425.277544824814 |
| 51 | 100988 | 99262.6131267488 | 1725.38687325116 |
| 52 | 105720 | 103083.499277937 | 2636.50072206285 |
| 53 | 109540 | 104332.201810987 | 5207.79818901268 |
| 54 | 107772 | 104347.830257794 | 3424.16974220575 |
| 55 | 101872 | 99048.3777687817 | 2823.62223121834 |
| 56 | 98940 | 97639.3730483071 | 1300.62695169295 |
| 57 | 92756 | 94641.7753077107 | -1885.77530771068 |
| 58 | 88936 | 93238.7261213526 | -4302.72612135261 |
| 59 | 91872 | 93613.2492771038 | -1741.24927710382 |
| 60 | 94808 | 95385.1097020167 | -577.109702016736 |
| 61 | 94808 | 94862.0228751032 | -54.0228751031827 |
| 62 | 90988 | 93350.7522809675 | -2362.75228096754 |
| 63 | 90704 | 91487.6365339141 | -783.636533914148 |
| 64 | 95688 | 94903.1800306595 | 784.81996934046 |
| 65 | 98940 | 96977.3455921714 | 1962.65440782861 |
| 66 | 97768 | 94602.6197636992 | 3165.3802363008 |
| 67 | 91872 | 88814.9109504608 | 3057.08904953921 |
| 68 | 88052 | 86565.7414412419 | 1486.25855875808 |
| 69 | 79788 | 81714.9218140276 | -1926.92181402764 |
| 70 | 76568 | 78828.1535553301 | -2260.15355533009 |
| 71 | 77736 | 81567.2483439991 | -3831.24834399913 |
| 72 | 82752 | 83179.0079226853 | -427.007922685269 |
| 73 | 83036 | 83011.9021579961 | 24.0978420039173 |
| 74 | 75684 | 80132.2357340269 | -4448.23573402689 |
| 75 | 78336 | 78331.9913757674 | 4.00862423256331 |
| 76 | 84804 | 82967.3673495761 | 1836.63265042393 |
| 77 | 87740 | 86148.7737382483 | 1591.22626175167 |
| 78 | 85972 | 84320.2005634366 | 1651.79943656338 |
| 79 | 78024 | 77812.9299534567 | 211.070046543275 |
| 80 | 72436 | 73391.7158736878 | -955.715873687848 |
| 81 | 65968 | 65390.8536554303 | 577.146344569657 |
| 82 | 60952 | 63219.054853739 | -2267.05485373904 |
| 83 | 63004 | 64924.8274501293 | -1920.82745012932 |
| 84 | 67420 | 69281.0476595513 | -1861.04765955133 |
| 85 | 66252 | 68727.1938057777 | -2475.1938057777 |
| 86 | 59784 | 62046.9335725517 | -2262.93357255172 |
| 87 | 61836 | 63703.391835058 | -1867.39183505803 |
| 88 | 68304 | 68572.1142368585 | -268.114236858455 |
| 89 | 71840 | 70617.1501245929 | 1222.84987540706 |
| 90 | 69788 | 68526.1117136182 | 1261.88828638177 |
| 91 | 61836 | 60842.4732756126 | 993.526724387375 |
| 92 | 58304 | 55890.5426286275 | 2413.45737137255 |
| 93 | 53004 | 50063.1757120356 | 2940.82428796444 |
| 94 | 47416 | 47074.2672092586 | 341.7327907414 |
| 95 | 48300 | 50011.3092676085 | -1711.30926760846 |
| 96 | 52716 | 54468.5225890377 | -1752.52258903773 |
| 97 | 53288 | 53573.0020178141 | -285.002017814099 |
| 98 | 47988 | 47913.0488727193 | 74.9511272806994 |
| 99 | 48872 | 50793.4089973255 | -1921.40899732548 |
| 100 | 56252 | 56647.6536407486 | -395.653640748635 |
| 101 | 58016 | 59581.9580041035 | -1565.95800410349 |
| 102 | 55056 | 56402.2470969177 | -1346.24709691769 |
| 103 | 44168 | 47479.6045264197 | -3311.60452641972 |
| 104 | 38584 | 41556.2883753638 | -2972.28837536379 |
| 105 | 31204 | 33709.9327255689 | -2505.9327255689 |
| 106 | 23852 | 26723.8044717416 | -2871.80447174155 |
| 107 | 26216 | 26838.4503091876 | -622.450309187625 |
| 108 | 29436 | 31419.3784140592 | -1983.37841405922 |
| 109 | 28868 | 31019.1042934329 | -2151.10429343287 |
| 110 | 23252 | 24507.7082763234 | -1255.70827632341 |
| 111 | 26500 | 25319.7954317801 | 1180.20456821992 |
| 112 | 34452 | 33038.5956301081 | 1413.4043698919 |
| 113 | 37984 | 35730.7497602359 | 2253.25023976413 |
| 114 | 36220 | 34003.9747338237 | 2216.02526617626 |
| 115 | 29152 | 25174.7829506295 | 3977.21704937051 |
| 116 | 23568 | 22327.3589999359 | 1240.6410000641 |
| 117 | 17668 | 16462.3475694081 | 1205.65243059186 |
| 118 | 10884 | 10812.8681664605 | 71.1318335395372 |
| 119 | 12084 | 13566.4858815692 | -1482.48588156923 |
| 120 | 14136 | 17086.1431415946 | -2950.14314159457 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 16282.4218963807 | 12237.7623756857 | 20327.0814170757 |
| 122 | 11286.1653677469 | 6906.04298529446 | 15666.2877501993 |
| 123 | 14196.0425232888 | 9482.61548258063 | 18909.469563997 |
| 124 | 21698.9851241929 | 16653.2745225413 | 26744.6957258445 |
| 125 | 24424.3690316656 | 19046.5411433174 | 29802.1969200139 |
| 126 | 21835.3474201398 | 16124.9127501584 | 27545.7820901212 |
| 127 | 13203.5729426003 | 7159.53065827415 | 19247.6152269264 |
| 128 | 7093.93297111632 | 714.878219093787 | 13472.9877231388 |
| 129 | 663.968238873396 | -6051.82650134003 | 7379.76297908683 |
| 130 | -6213.05476064401 | -13267.5769424554 | 841.467421167372 |
| 131 | -4484.35996643888 | -11879.8078826295 | 2911.0879497517 |
| 132 | -1293.42561877736 | -9032.16948866672 | 6445.31825111201 |
