| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 651504.2664 | 471709.2943 | 831299.2385 | 0.3652 | 0.0149 | 0.6005 | 0.0149 |
| 62 | 847224 | 904988.5935 | 718775.0254 | 1091202.1617 | 0.2716 | 0.9902 | 0.304 | 0.7156 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1145558.8036 | 957034.7929 | 1334082.8143 | 0.2261 | 0.999 | 0.4388 | 0.9989 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1520613.9271 | 1331258.4855 | 1709969.3686 | 0.4741 | 1 | 0.8929 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1562884.2426 | 1373253.915 | 1752514.5702 | 0.2705 | 0.6921 | 0.154 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1550886.6716 | 1361029.1688 | 1740744.1744 | 0.3279 | 0.6868 | 0.7168 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2914231.9844 | 2724373.906 | 3104090.0628 | 0.3082 | 1 | 0.4813 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2733285.4388 | 2543425.9335 | 2923144.9441 | 0.2856 | 0.0858 | 0.3308 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1425293.6149 | 1235426.4214 | 1615160.8085 | 0.364 | 0 | 0.5748 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1380441.7 | 1190573.5401 | 1570309.8599 | 0.4423 | 0.4542 | 0.5421 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 979699.0858 | 789830.8251 | 1169567.3465 | 0.3651 | 0 | 0.5622 | 0.9083 |
| 72 | 859626 | 885294.2629 | 695425.9188 | 1075162.6069 | 0.3955 | 0.2644 | 0.6389 | 0.6389 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1408 | 0.0485 | 0 | 999428153.2855 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.105 | -0.0638 | 0.0562 | 3336748266.4515 | 2168088209.8685 | 46562.7341 |
| 63 | 0.084 | -0.0631 | 0.0585 | 5227695410.976 | 3187957276.9043 | 56461.9985 |
| 64 | 0.0635 | -0.0041 | 0.0449 | 39538026.6926 | 2400852464.3514 | 48998.4945 |
| 65 | 0.0619 | -0.0378 | 0.0435 | 3498751201.8168 | 2620432211.8445 | 51190.1574 |
| 66 | 0.0625 | -0.0278 | 0.0409 | 1864052268.1807 | 2494368887.9005 | 49943.6571 |
| 67 | 0.0332 | -0.0167 | 0.0374 | 2355547643.6656 | 2474537281.5812 | 49744.7211 |
| 68 | 0.0354 | 0.0201 | 0.0353 | 3007706521.9148 | 2541183436.6229 | 50410.1521 |
| 69 | 0.068 | -0.0236 | 0.034 | 1135529250.9617 | 2384999638.2161 | 48836.4581 |
| 70 | 0.0702 | -0.0102 | 0.0316 | 197787657.3098 | 2166278440.1255 | 46543.2964 |
| 71 | 0.0989 | -0.0341 | 0.0318 | 1115832946.8283 | 2070783395.2803 | 45505.8611 |
| 72 | 0.1094 | -0.029 | 0.0316 | 658859717.9022 | 1953123088.8321 | 44194.1522 |
