Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
status[t] = + 1.94199 + 0.191864spread1[t] + 0.570894spread2[t] -1.93909NHR[t] -0.0145995HNR[t] + 0.354748DFA[t] -0.00116192t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)1.941990.5308713.6580.0003298250.000164912
spread10.1918640.03791645.069.92675e-074.96338e-07
spread20.5708940.3970461.4380.1521380.0760692
NHR-1.939090.909844-2.1310.03436890.0171844
HNR-0.01459950.00938043-1.5560.12130.0606499
DFA0.3547480.4989590.7110.477980.23899
t-0.001161920.000482679-2.4070.01704080.00852038


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.615947
R-squared0.379391
Adjusted R-squared0.359584
F-TEST (value)19.1547
F-TEST (DF numerator)6
F-TEST (DF denominator)188
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.345615
Sum Squared Residuals22.4565


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
111.10879-0.108793
211.32406-0.32406
311.22956-0.22956
411.3011-0.301101
511.322-0.322
611.24862-0.248616
710.8959190.104081
810.7257280.274272
910.9988950.00110525
1011.09915-0.0991452
1111.08961-0.0896085
1211.1303-0.130303
1310.6009170.399083
1410.8379560.162044
1510.7258370.274163
1610.868520.13148
1710.8819770.118023
1811.46735-0.467354
1911.30821-0.308211
2011.16683-0.166831
2111.20042-0.200415
2210.9844070.0155935
2311.12244-0.122435
2410.9369470.0630532
2510.8502240.149776
2610.8616170.138383
2710.709660.29034
2810.6834040.316596
2910.5494030.450597
3010.6129820.387018
3100.462986-0.462986
3200.338043-0.338043
3300.458025-0.458025
3400.312585-0.312585
3500.245942-0.245942
3600.302659-0.302659
3710.7695660.230434
3810.7646570.235343
3910.6569290.343071
4010.7751870.224813
4110.6093020.390698
4210.4560260.543974
4300.4315-0.4315
4400.551796-0.551796
4500.434057-0.434057
4600.456551-0.456551
4700.442931-0.442931
4800.422169-0.422169
4900.707494-0.707494
5000.685468-0.685468
5100.651055-0.651055
5200.659961-0.659961
5300.551305-0.551305
5400.619671-0.619671
5511.06682-0.066816
5611.13399-0.133987
5711.12006-0.120064
5811.09979-0.0997904
5911.10778-0.107776
6011.0661-0.0660995
6100.409407-0.409407
6200.375858-0.375858
6300.449204-0.449204
6400.344657-0.344657
6500.308165-0.308165
6600.340903-0.340903
6710.8836220.116378
6810.874190.12581
6910.6901840.309816
7010.6222260.377774
7110.7654050.234595
7210.9113030.0886965
7310.820060.17994
7410.9121050.0878948
7510.8594190.140581
7610.8919510.108049
7710.86060.1394
7810.864560.13544
7910.9478190.0521808
8011.01486-0.0148616
8111.04403-0.0440316
8210.9360710.0639287
8310.9215510.0784485
8410.6651450.334855
8510.9742560.0257438
8610.9049280.0950724
8710.7700710.229929
8810.9186260.0813744
8910.8671450.132855
9011.16273-0.162732
9111.1128-0.112803
9210.6574080.342592
9310.6913670.308633
9410.6693010.330699
9510.651320.34868
9610.6488060.351194
9710.6077260.392274
9811.07977-0.0797693
9910.7721140.227886
10010.9761850.023815
10110.7564410.243559
10210.9728980.0271018
10310.9211260.0788736
10410.4083870.591613
10510.3640230.635977
10610.4401950.559805
10710.3852850.614715
10810.5363330.463667
10910.4123620.587638
11010.775930.22407
11110.8558240.144176
11210.5850050.414995
11310.915760.08424
11410.7069370.293063
11510.5350770.464923
11610.831740.16826
11710.6180730.381927
11810.9649790.0350212
11910.936030.0639703
12010.8009010.199099
12110.6102070.389793
12210.8707960.129204
12310.8085350.191465
12410.7851240.214876
12510.6771040.322896
12610.7445890.255411
12710.7429110.257089
12810.7006620.299338
12910.380410.61959
13010.6329390.367061
13110.6048810.395119
13210.6009810.399019
13310.7868890.213111
13410.5238760.476124
13510.907020.0929795
13610.8876380.112362
13711.04342-0.0434192
13810.9974840.00251615
13910.8184230.181577
14010.7238490.276151
14111.00905-0.00905369
14210.8295030.170497
14310.8098330.190167
14410.6773630.322637
14510.6242040.375796
14610.7999220.200078
14711.33032-0.330316
14811.09818-0.0981793
14911.24736-0.247362
15010.882120.11788
15110.9757050.0242946
15211.28385-0.283852
15311.23703-0.237033
15410.8129050.187095
15510.8747450.125255
15611.04465-0.0446477
15710.6726690.327331
15811.01319-0.0131873
15910.7783130.221687
16010.736060.26394
16110.8157420.184258
16210.7747020.225298
16310.7562660.243734
16410.6804330.319567
16511.30944-0.309439
16600.399015-0.399015
16700.353785-0.353785
16800.293304-0.293304
16900.6889-0.6889
17000.314337-0.314337
17100.334326-0.334326
17200.527895-0.527895
17300.562591-0.562591
17400.584315-0.584315
17500.601403-0.601403
17600.588304-0.588304
17700.525318-0.525318
17810.5045550.495445
17910.5317630.468237
18010.6944730.305527
18110.5547260.445274
18210.6860730.313927
18310.5086180.491382
18400.641538-0.641538
18500.735211-0.735211
18600.59385-0.59385
18700.438322-0.438322
18800.427074-0.427074
18900.378891-0.378891
19000.355717-0.355717
19100.430022-0.430022
19200.531808-0.531808
19300.269729-0.269729
19400.351672-0.351672
19500.566786-0.566786


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
104.86046e-499.72092e-491
118.9883e-641.79766e-631
122.27114e-774.54227e-771
131.72582e-1073.45164e-1071
147.98992e-1101.59798e-1091
154.02738e-1248.05475e-1241
16001
171.0642e-1662.1284e-1661
183.98458e-1687.96917e-1681
191.18807e-1832.37614e-1831
205.92026e-2111.18405e-2101
219.66309e-2451.93262e-2441
221.07737e-2262.15474e-2261
232.86498e-2455.72996e-2451
241.75464e-2563.50928e-2561
251.12006e-2822.24012e-2821
26001
272.16103999999886e-3124.32209000000003e-3121
287.0047194476999e-3181.40093993701481e-3171
29001
30001
317.71166e-050.0001542330.999923
320.001307670.002615350.998692
330.00249460.004989190.997505
340.00195250.003904990.998048
350.001289280.002578560.998711
360.0009127960.001825590.999087
370.00122580.00245160.998774
380.001445130.002890270.998555
390.002100860.004201710.997899
400.002030290.004060580.99797
410.002037130.004074260.997963
420.001642240.003284480.998358
430.04841420.09682840.951586
440.1383310.2766630.861669
450.1867420.3734830.813258
460.2235220.4470450.776478
470.2443880.4887750.755612
480.2507430.5014870.749257
490.331020.662040.66898
500.393640.787280.60636
510.4396270.8792540.560373
520.4899120.9798250.510088
530.522290.955420.47771
540.5886610.8226770.411339
550.5869390.8261220.413061
560.5625510.8748980.437449
570.5384440.9231120.461556
580.5278840.9442310.472116
590.5041860.9916290.495814
600.4751280.9502560.524872
610.5111430.9777140.488857
620.5425780.9148440.457422
630.6079260.7841480.392074
640.6528250.6943510.347175
650.7060560.5878880.293944
660.777320.445360.22268
670.8279120.3441750.172088
680.8449520.3100950.155048
690.8383410.3233170.161659
700.8538020.2923960.146198
710.8499770.3000460.150023
720.8363510.3272990.163649
730.8677980.2644050.132202
740.8704340.2591320.129566
750.8595370.2809270.140463
760.8579620.2840770.142038
770.8630750.2738510.136925
780.8546620.2906760.145338
790.8476410.3047180.152359
800.8400040.3199910.159996
810.8326990.3346020.167301
820.8246110.3507790.175389
830.8175760.3648480.182424
840.8205380.3589240.179462
850.8053310.3893370.194669
860.8052280.3895440.194772
870.8106330.3787350.189367
880.7947770.4104450.205223
890.7792290.4415410.220771
900.8250010.3499970.174999
910.8545020.2909960.145498
920.8637280.2725440.136272
930.8555110.2889790.144489
940.8550360.2899270.144964
950.8547980.2904040.145202
960.8514130.2971740.148587
970.8494220.3011570.150578
980.8615460.2769080.138454
990.8437820.3124360.156218
1000.8320830.3358340.167917
1010.8054670.3890660.194533
1020.7938530.4122940.206147
1030.7713560.4572880.228644
1040.7813880.4372230.218612
1050.7955610.4088770.204439
1060.7922430.4155130.207757
1070.7865110.4269790.213489
1080.7630040.4739920.236996
1090.7434090.5131820.256591
1100.7193480.5613040.280652
1110.7026040.5947930.297396
1120.6729270.6541460.327073
1130.664890.6702210.33511
1140.6311940.7376130.368806
1150.6032710.7934570.396729
1160.5737530.8524950.426247
1170.5317570.9364870.468243
1180.5286310.9427370.471369
1190.5164440.9671110.483556
1200.4822430.9644860.517757
1210.4436080.8872170.556392
1220.4254760.8509530.574524
1230.3910620.7821230.608938
1240.3556140.7112290.644386
1250.317550.63510.68245
1260.2826240.5652480.717376
1270.2500970.5001940.749903
1280.2192950.4385910.780705
1290.2048340.4096680.795166
1300.1746640.3493270.825336
1310.1480720.2961440.851928
1320.1241560.2483120.875844
1330.1045590.2091170.895441
1340.08872970.1774590.91127
1350.07583120.1516620.924169
1360.0632280.1264560.936772
1370.06079170.1215830.939208
1380.05435560.1087110.945644
1390.04315190.08630380.956848
1400.03354360.06708720.966456
1410.02886160.05772320.971138
1420.02203440.04406870.977966
1430.01658380.03316750.983416
1440.01273570.02547140.987264
1450.0102670.0205340.989733
1460.007777470.01555490.992223
1470.01134610.02269220.988654
1480.01060430.02120860.989396
1490.01393720.02787450.986063
1500.01042080.02084150.989579
1510.008142140.01628430.991858
1520.008939820.01787960.99106
1530.0254090.0508180.974591
1540.01928210.03856430.980718
1550.01559370.03118740.984406
1560.0134730.0269460.986527
1570.02020570.04041150.979794
1580.01652120.03304240.983479
1590.02542090.05084190.974579
1600.02314270.04628530.976857
1610.01965720.03931450.980343
1620.02007980.04015970.97992
1630.01575970.03151930.98424
1640.05325530.1065110.946745
1650.1301990.2603980.869801
1660.1665930.3331860.833407
1670.2313930.4627860.768607
1680.2150970.4301930.784903
1690.2714680.5429360.728532
1700.2597540.5195080.740246
1710.2789780.5579560.721022
1720.2674290.5348580.732571
1730.3054060.6108120.694594
1740.3467050.693410.653295
1750.5256540.9486930.474346
1760.8520.2960010.148
1770.9997340.0005319050.000265953
1780.9996190.0007612440.000380622
1790.9988980.002204390.0011022
1800.9979020.004195090.00209755
1810.9948370.0103260.005163
1820.9856230.02875450.0143772
183100
184100
185100


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level400.227273NOK
5% type I error level620.352273NOK
10% type I error level680.386364NOK