| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 112 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 118 | 116.662660821566 | 4.77318472606809 | 1.33733917843408 | 0.424228080589504 |
| 3 | 132 | 130.365394534962 | 11.0862938278212 | 1.63460546503751 | 0.52904817283692 |
| 4 | 129 | 132.255403551879 | 4.19626407093976 | -3.25540355187903 | -0.555722284153466 |
| 5 | 121 | 123.494625866794 | -5.30231647080551 | -2.49462586679412 | -0.743105121960284 |
| 6 | 135 | 130.681795334502 | 3.82135943180137 | 4.31820466549813 | 0.72013020726569 |
| 7 | 148 | 145.954146597464 | 12.2106083381179 | 2.04585340253614 | 0.661413909414961 |
| 8 | 148 | 150.795462126764 | 6.80932764845425 | -2.79546212676448 | -0.425692682577753 |
| 9 | 136 | 139.990519892948 | -6.09921743616389 | -3.99051989294807 | -1.01743382679364 |
| 10 | 119 | 120.95780216857 | -15.5758533984166 | -1.95780216857024 | -0.746920875268114 |
| 11 | 104 | 103.45198785627 | -16.9899077650344 | 0.548012143730277 | -0.111451529063779 |
| 12 | 118 | 111.320725591151 | 1.22406082443357 | 6.67927440884859 | 1.43557125631901 |
| 13 | 115 | 116.084408660289 | 3.81134595431492 | -1.08440866028866 | 0.204507669666939 |
| 14 | 126 | 126.603292857397 | 8.73193667908494 | -0.603292857396826 | 0.393842478292213 |
| 15 | 141 | 136.885429383094 | 9.826602645354 | 4.11457061690583 | 0.0859104666094341 |
| 16 | 135 | 136.623510341985 | 2.70264195844304 | -1.6235103419849 | -0.57008289684874 |
| 17 | 125 | 132.265781810859 | -2.30644456987844 | -7.26578181085857 | -0.394341930154404 |
| 18 | 149 | 144.775317853346 | 8.12593012043385 | 4.22468214665364 | 0.820765573068593 |
| 19 | 170 | 165.123435172325 | 16.7344107176876 | 4.87656482767501 | 0.678999384609754 |
| 20 | 170 | 172.07406046538 | 9.83368012882807 | -2.0740604653803 | -0.543950628817416 |
| 21 | 158 | 162.374910067218 | -3.94679627061448 | -4.374910067218 | -1.08607978927955 |
| 22 | 133 | 137.89054282721 | -18.4354269395378 | -4.8905428272098 | -1.1420212655331 |
| 23 | 114 | 118.55440170211 | -19.0706502605007 | -4.55440170211009 | -0.0500667122863985 |
| 24 | 140 | 126.410420900994 | -0.099165816627935 | 13.589579099006 | 1.4957094828061 |
| 25 | 145 | 144.55671444272 | 12.7565725664496 | 0.443285557279693 | 1.0162274796967 |
| 26 | 150 | 153.059876554706 | 9.75587649233221 | -3.05987655470638 | -0.236842149866799 |
| 27 | 178 | 168.054581069797 | 13.4122461517667 | 9.94541893020282 | 0.287576590957115 |
| 28 | 163 | 166.179348602214 | 2.76495715013329 | -3.1793486022138 | -0.843937001965128 |
| 29 | 172 | 180.701906853752 | 10.9918313864534 | -8.70190685375221 | 0.649400465260904 |
| 30 | 178 | 182.663270482534 | 4.69351441025064 | -4.66327048253404 | -0.495508871880832 |
| 31 | 199 | 191.572781754023 | 7.62913387684962 | 7.42721824597736 | 0.23138010198759 |
| 32 | 199 | 196.307187061251 | 5.61137260334486 | 2.69281293874889 | -0.159076918733804 |
| 33 | 184 | 184.834370294863 | -6.30429131322232 | -0.834370294862855 | -0.93911992539977 |
| 34 | 162 | 167.362943256384 | -14.0929330860442 | -5.36294325638428 | -0.613904717861642 |
| 35 | 146 | 156.883809152874 | -11.5736794562181 | -10.8838091528739 | 0.198561374932152 |
| 36 | 166 | 155.255957048006 | -4.64475392025315 | 10.7440429519939 | 0.546454171842359 |
| 37 | 171 | 165.813390226557 | 5.95357168438541 | 5.18660977344256 | 0.83683715313593 |
| 38 | 180 | 181.919671455166 | 13.0291193017558 | -1.91967145516558 | 0.557592800232048 |
| 39 | 193 | 182.266819942309 | 4.236293823516 | 10.7331800576908 | -0.692294861866591 |
| 40 | 181 | 187.090472483859 | 4.64303189398109 | -6.09047248385873 | 0.0321419705552822 |
| 41 | 183 | 190.410473253441 | 3.72421743034861 | -7.41047325344133 | -0.0725304631148691 |
| 42 | 218 | 218.899635101213 | 20.9062895818205 | -0.89963510121313 | 1.35283025821703 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.041136009802 | 12.0647609603936 | 2.95886399019849 | -0.696554779810137 |
| 44 | 242 | 234.341612214091 | 8.76358185856399 | 7.65838778590869 | -0.260227648809671 |
| 45 | 209 | 213.33205619082 | -11.8793705391411 | -4.33205619082036 | -1.62704141201858 |
| 46 | 191 | 196.521087118816 | -15.2988638319834 | -5.52108711881629 | -0.269515335996463 |
| 47 | 172 | 184.659552789082 | -12.9163871098332 | -12.6595527890824 | 0.187794432125219 |
| 48 | 194 | 184.923152188802 | -3.78282917533281 | 9.07684781119802 | 0.720342364307162 |
| 49 | 196 | 191.21874181247 | 3.20563279551633 | 4.7812581875304 | 0.551346850125973 |
| 50 | 196 | 193.579366246272 | 2.6201152321817 | 2.42063375372773 | -0.0461304372155127 |
| 51 | 236 | 218.307132941088 | 17.8926391046559 | 17.6928670589117 | 1.20301533210225 |
| 52 | 235 | 241.229495122082 | 21.3648401336041 | -6.22949512208184 | 0.27407012370437 |
| 53 | 229 | 249.142329376083 | 12.0615492517105 | -20.142329376083 | -0.734159674801361 |
| 54 | 243 | 245.706059156558 | 1.34448614452316 | -2.70605915655814 | -0.844275840937556 |
| 55 | 264 | 257.065261714809 | 8.2612606190089 | 6.93473828519128 | 0.544865208902573 |
| 56 | 272 | 257.423243714143 | 2.80342292727283 | 14.5767562858567 | -0.430158968538095 |
| 57 | 237 | 242.918319304717 | -9.15456152564881 | -5.91831930471703 | -0.942527670790447 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.717620761365 | -18.859776394555 | -8.71762076136524 | -0.764957963499696 |
| 59 | 180 | 196.554401008997 | -21.8326826322166 | -16.5544010089969 | -0.234354663105722 |
| 60 | 201 | 189.552399906239 | -11.5865147984744 | 11.4476000937614 | 0.808018181125414 |
| 61 | 204 | 194.894776236479 | 0.113970732992931 | 9.10522376352105 | 0.922657388555307 |
| 62 | 188 | 193.968010550944 | -0.604799774355191 | -5.96801055094405 | -0.0566276492676685 |
| 63 | 235 | 213.769823963847 | 13.4610174459975 | 21.2301760361529 | 1.10820945416496 |
| 64 | 227 | 229.318245167392 | 14.8991853312341 | -2.31824516739224 | 0.113458528860061 |
| 65 | 234 | 249.227765952348 | 18.3554249509379 | -15.2277659523481 | 0.272673301930557 |
| 66 | 264 | 270.882710438544 | 20.6319761742199 | -6.88271043854362 | 0.179400027128818 |
| 67 | 302 | 293.373612252539 | 21.9134546100509 | 8.62638774746108 | 0.100953058087679 |
| 68 | 293 | 281.873203057667 | -1.11232879696849 | 11.1267969423326 | -1.81455031791898 |
| 69 | 259 | 262.838544168348 | -13.4650239576162 | -3.83854416834782 | -0.973630073323972 |
| 70 | 229 | 237.991720251365 | -21.3106164395381 | -8.99172025136456 | -0.618420449293215 |
| 71 | 203 | 221.812543588348 | -17.7735211165344 | -18.8125435883482 | 0.278850500594395 |
| 72 | 229 | 217.879015576374 | -8.23165710921271 | 11.1209844236262 | 0.752400013367426 |
| 73 | 242 | 227.484978028307 | 4.06916037091388 | 14.5150219716928 | 0.969739555738685 |
| 74 | 233 | 242.250760619002 | 11.4403322766187 | -9.25076061900219 | 0.580745780540814 |
| 75 | 267 | 248.062639845355 | 7.56707640726411 | 18.937360154645 | -0.305200379912316 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.031042734012 | 17.474567723076 | -1.031042734012 | 0.781397722155662 |
| 77 | 270 | 289.244358865359 | 18.6718154401321 | -19.2443588653586 | 0.094437063022276 |
| 78 | 315 | 320.691007571557 | 27.4708748974813 | -5.69100757155661 | 0.69351425254941 |
| 79 | 364 | 346.458231837624 | 26.29814759659 | 17.5417681623756 | -0.0923937531627278 |
| 80 | 347 | 338.399553178454 | 2.65973803233423 | 8.60044682154631 | -1.86269975662687 |
| 81 | 312 | 316.241246400817 | -14.415251851639 | -4.24124640081654 | -1.34581032836127 |
| 82 | 274 | 286.808837967691 | -24.748094435347 | -12.8088379676913 | -0.814522101523571 |
| 83 | 237 | 259.835952975897 | -26.2790742038912 | -22.8359529758975 | -0.120702724941604 |
| 84 | 278 | 264.010296366857 | -5.31729684925842 | 13.9897036331426 | 1.65275197293808 |
| 85 | 284 | 269.66837188278 | 2.23809419712843 | 14.3316281172197 | 0.595542825014979 |
| 86 | 277 | 281.221902589488 | 8.64661793769375 | -4.22190258948788 | 0.50491915253415 |
| 87 | 317 | 299.733716671533 | 15.4262943620938 | 17.2662833284668 | 0.534254330343551 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.164952341166 | 16.1167835141953 | -3.16495234116585 | 0.054449923845099 |
| 89 | 318 | 341.78780716034 | 22.6527975441322 | -23.7878071603402 | 0.515484782231822 |
| 90 | 374 | 378.081219152053 | 32.0346750926744 | -4.08121915205261 | 0.739517395242286 |
| 91 | 413 | 390.981709424636 | 18.880143597494 | 22.0182905753642 | -1.03646643976649 |
| 92 | 405 | 391.716960268829 | 6.41231249283658 | 13.2830397311712 | -0.982429980053294 |
| 93 | 355 | 361.647517373239 | -18.650816375477 | -6.64751737323938 | -1.97537640844462 |
| 94 | 306 | 321.631710801213 | -33.3296004310634 | -15.6317108012131 | -1.1571537292732 |
| 95 | 271 | 299.208980577274 | -25.8346025866735 | -28.2089805772737 | 0.590926044473011 |
| 96 | 306 | 290.647640099236 | -13.9614996206322 | 15.352359900764 | 0.936088868750572 |
| 97 | 315 | 297.700265193629 | 0.483267350773716 | 17.2997348063711 | 1.1384910320022 |
| 98 | 301 | 305.766996230562 | 5.69289595073781 | -4.76699623056196 | 0.410472453112799 |
| 99 | 356 | 333.3221427478 | 20.6993538989975 | 22.6778572522005 | 1.18259469051132 |
| 100 | 348 | 356.383501136552 | 22.320422881305 | -8.38350113655164 | 0.12782030875334 |
| 101 | 355 | 384.088009367123 | 26.0176014460547 | -29.0880093671233 | 0.291563757511297 |
| 102 | 422 | 420.362726114721 | 33.0633149087689 | 1.63727388527939 | 0.555397474437971 |
| 103 | 465 | 441.582412829796 | 24.9304684382461 | 23.4175871702041 | -0.640839917424761 |
| 104 | 467 | 445.923304398591 | 10.7993926274186 | 21.0766956014089 | -1.11347790997722 |
| 105 | 404 | 413.091335036256 | -19.1376680209286 | -9.09133503625632 | -2.35948278730752 |
| 106 | 347 | 369.49768971807 | -35.9184616594858 | -22.4976897180697 | -1.32289016436701 |
| 107 | 305 | 336.359425173785 | -34.0103336314262 | -31.359425173785 | 0.150444292041062 |
| 108 | 336 | 321.234328029561 | -21.045329589733 | 14.7656719704388 | 1.02212992151691 |
| 109 | 340 | 319.887574821775 | -7.52237986086302 | 20.1124251782253 | 1.06578525218724 |
| 110 | 318 | 325.785099233883 | 1.68521515832336 | -7.78509923388347 | 0.725496516228874 |
| 111 | 362 | 337.592540257301 | 8.62555395700055 | 24.4074597426994 | 0.546953655553752 |
| 112 | 348 | 357.240232792646 | 16.1821125053838 | -9.24023279264613 | 0.595791718220961 |
| 113 | 363 | 393.310811452876 | 29.8234819665946 | -30.3108114528759 | 1.07570036818738 |
| 114 | 435 | 431.338508626737 | 35.4524342425459 | 3.66149137326326 | 0.443727055703419 |
| 115 | 491 | 463.215773782347 | 33.0001127476128 | 27.784226217653 | -0.193243460379605 |
| 116 | 505 | 474.716420343764 | 18.2605075541605 | 30.2835796562361 | -1.16143089403009 |
| 117 | 404 | 421.551172783629 | -30.6918024909794 | -17.5511727836288 | -3.85812343994882 |
| 118 | 359 | 381.045710726462 | -37.41781565878 | -22.0457107264622 | -0.530240883843109 |
| 119 | 310 | 346.097528528106 | -35.7247517141711 | -36.0975285281058 | 0.133488091948727 |
| 120 | 337 | 323.990934430122 | -26.3863186847568 | 13.0090655698776 | 0.736195548707825 |
| 121 | 360 | 333.613484669236 | -1.69536864283518 | 26.3865153307637 | 1.94591942553863 |
| 122 | 342 | 348.34046068785 | 9.55953749066728 | -6.34046068785018 | 0.88683235591685 |
| 123 | 406 | 379.535573874924 | 24.3788306117707 | 26.4644261250761 | 1.16789989862537 |
| 124 | 396 | 411.735082311183 | 29.7351664396098 | -15.7350823111826 | 0.42229728665175 |
| 125 | 420 | 453.440291926606 | 37.9365984531949 | -33.4402919266063 | 0.64669524971378 |
| 126 | 472 | 475.781853854096 | 27.2483815120413 | -3.78185385409612 | -0.842552140664139 |
| 127 | 548 | 510.955897539963 | 32.6792177179962 | 37.0441024600368 | 0.427966065322101 |
| 128 | 559 | 513.663292371464 | 12.1518510881024 | 45.3367076285359 | -1.61750240458337 |
| 129 | 463 | 484.876511573777 | -15.8768940535727 | -21.8765115737769 | -2.20904077174858 |
| 130 | 407 | 434.840685533217 | -39.264000178877 | -27.8406855332168 | -1.84370688984693 |
| 131 | 362 | 399.140217950986 | -36.8235519794095 | -37.1402179509861 | 0.192413575482365 |
| 132 | 405 | 394.181741755655 | -14.9955789793095 | 10.8182582443455 | 1.72076561964746 |
| 133 | 417 | 392.714811934169 | -5.72902712043954 | 24.285188065831 | 0.730297450126023 |
| 134 | 391 | 400.377184496086 | 3.4391880937649 | -9.37718449608555 | 0.722426993087011 |
| 135 | 419 | 397.703335541264 | -0.743936327948643 | 21.2966644587357 | -0.329674096302281 |
| 136 | 461 | 463.863961922501 | 45.0355906238339 | -2.86396192250119 | 3.60916432250751 |
| 137 | 472 | 506.973754743999 | 43.7174072161145 | -34.9737547439991 | -0.103936158885771 |
| 138 | 535 | 544.916092607748 | 39.7633948459025 | -9.91609260774836 | -0.311694502201992 |
| 139 | 622 | 578.09508114264 | 35.25600395665 | 43.9049188573604 | -0.355205223812828 |
| 140 | 606 | 560.043257261889 | -1.21956353510591 | 45.9567427381114 | -2.87421693350987 |
| 141 | 508 | 524.076188746732 | -24.9870482619212 | -16.0761887467315 | -1.8731902048214 |
| 142 | 461 | 490.500755249904 | -30.8615145231804 | -29.5007552499037 | -0.463106513560802 |
| 143 | 390 | 441.011228304035 | -43.6064614415178 | -51.0112283040354 | -1.00484343813939 |
| 144 | 432 | 417.850759786274 | -29.6143509562987 | 14.1492402137255 | 1.10301869016441 |
