| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.78681967507462 |
| beta | 0.0321846698299134 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 7839 | 9028.54380341881 | -1189.54380341881 |
| 14 | 7107 | 7327.41172842214 | -220.411728422145 |
| 15 | 6584 | 6631.98023444035 | -47.9802344403452 |
| 16 | 6053 | 6039.33953688306 | 13.6604631169384 |
| 17 | 5725 | 5623.50321744998 | 101.496782550019 |
| 18 | 6480 | 6320.39016596544 | 159.609834034562 |
| 19 | 11663 | 11657.1684914207 | 5.83150857926739 |
| 20 | 11628 | 11566.2236791987 | 61.7763208012766 |
| 21 | 9203 | 10160.4034072212 | -957.403407221185 |
| 22 | 7781 | 6396.26097083098 | 1384.73902916902 |
| 23 | 7020 | 6486.94543425269 | 533.05456574731 |
| 24 | 6908 | 6025.25662896334 | 882.743371036662 |
| 25 | 6912 | 6700.5183674956 | 211.481632504396 |
| 26 | 6668 | 6362.24418330192 | 305.75581669808 |
| 27 | 6189 | 6184.79871039705 | 4.20128960294915 |
| 28 | 6007 | 5714.90550930815 | 292.09449069185 |
| 29 | 5148 | 5612.47193169638 | -464.471931696382 |
| 30 | 6685 | 5937.70018862264 | 747.299811377363 |
| 31 | 11044 | 11780.2524923958 | -736.252492395801 |
| 32 | 11034 | 11174.7059880402 | -140.70598804019 |
| 33 | 8986 | 9444.53028606113 | -458.530286061134 |
| 34 | 8146 | 6637.07365158063 | 1508.92634841937 |
| 35 | 7818 | 6711.91756122676 | 1106.08243877324 |
| 36 | 8176 | 6858.1650139932 | 1317.8349860068 |
| 37 | 8935 | 7826.20353637094 | 1108.79646362906 |
| 38 | 8929 | 8330.31283387182 | 598.687166128177 |
| 39 | 8835 | 8442.7451909291 | 392.254809070895 |
| 40 | 8455 | 8473.05935845234 | -18.0593584523449 |
| 41 | 7924 | 8090.9574218867 | -166.957421886703 |
| 42 | 8973 | 9041.78782832887 | -68.7878283288737 |
| 43 | 13575 | 14038.4819230709 | -463.481923070878 |
| 44 | 13844 | 13893.9427454783 | -49.9427454783036 |
| 45 | 11738 | 12289.1531859576 | -551.153185957644 |
| 46 | 10467 | 9947.62226173041 | 519.37773826959 |
| 47 | 10145 | 9252.31278019624 | 892.687219803764 |
| 48 | 10833 | 9364.71555267397 | 1468.28444732603 |
| 49 | 10179 | 10499.2950826065 | -320.295082606506 |
| 50 | 10107 | 9826.7594349372 | 280.240565062799 |
| 51 | 9533 | 9693.09789802272 | -160.097898022725 |
| 52 | 9165 | 9235.82513347562 | -70.8251334756169 |
| 53 | 8382 | 8813.61364664943 | -431.613646649434 |
| 54 | 9018 | 9603.58286117847 | -585.582861178471 |
| 55 | 13911 | 14122.8720724674 | -211.872072467369 |
| 56 | 13761 | 14284.1951737247 | -523.195173724691 |
| 57 | 11316 | 12207.9409467752 | -891.940946775214 |
| 58 | 9855 | 9825.60554694963 | 29.3944530503704 |
| 59 | 9034 | 8811.05961494944 | 222.940385050557 |
| 60 | 8932 | 8488.94785170599 | 443.052148294009 |
| 61 | 9278 | 8379.35141670824 | 898.648583291757 |
| 62 | 8876 | 8768.58191575954 | 107.41808424046 |
| 63 | 8298 | 8375.34718155623 | -77.347181556228 |
| 64 | 7733 | 7974.58947373133 | -241.589473731328 |
| 65 | 7226 | 7309.15384350742 | -83.1538435074217 |
| 66 | 7688 | 8317.34872451046 | -629.348724510464 |
| 67 | 12226 | 12857.6354191528 | -631.63541915285 |
| 68 | 12081 | 12587.4481485195 | -506.448148519539 |
| 69 | 10439 | 10411.3212086458 | 27.6787913542285 |
| 70 | 9008 | 8937.81905349445 | 70.1809465055485 |
| 71 | 8377 | 7986.50554097093 | 390.494459029065 |
| 72 | 8346 | 7837.27579712117 | 508.72420287883 |
| 73 | 9167 | 7872.26235130154 | 1294.73764869846 |
| 74 | 8945 | 8410.28584760664 | 534.714152393361 |
| 75 | 8428 | 8330.50549532284 | 97.4945046771572 |
| 76 | 7973 | 8053.36879779096 | -80.3687977909576 |
| 77 | 7446 | 7573.70816016925 | -127.708160169246 |
| 78 | 7785 | 8454.42858698147 | -669.428586981468 |
| 79 | 10561 | 12985.6969762654 | -2424.69697626542 |
| 80 | 12791 | 11308.9792034734 | 1482.02079652655 |
| 81 | 11583 | 10839.2373098809 | 743.762690119138 |
| 82 | 10112 | 9984.31165411436 | 127.688345885635 |
| 83 | 9597 | 9194.07389958776 | 402.926100412242 |
| 84 | 9332 | 9127.68795006766 | 204.312049932343 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 9130.8689231083 | 7795.78119767932 | 10465.9566485373 |
| 86 | 8495.50726624258 | 6775.58644985483 | 10215.4280826303 |
| 87 | 7895.61777987002 | 5844.21427094407 | 9947.02128879598 |
| 88 | 7495.20573419696 | 5142.51970004014 | 9847.89176835377 |
| 89 | 7062.07645202771 | 4427.4912120614 | 9696.66169199403 |
| 90 | 7924.41748167563 | 5021.26989572941 | 10827.5650676218 |
| 91 | 12621.79051093 | 9459.65559159408 | 15783.9254302659 |
| 92 | 13760.6830217424 | 10346.6209940547 | 17174.74504943 |
| 93 | 12004.9215356973 | 8344.22230418601 | 15665.6207672085 |
| 94 | 10452.0647671233 | 6548.72243426229 | 14355.4070999843 |
| 95 | 9635.41199812055 | 5492.44287489414 | 13778.381121347 |
| 96 | 9214.82916000266 | 4834.49351710364 | 13595.1648029017 |
