Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 0 |
3 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 0 |
4 | 19.5 | 19.4 | 0.100000000000001 |
5 | 19.5 | 19.4999933893039 | 6.61069613627774e-06 |
6 | 19.5 | 19.499999999563 | 4.37012204201892e-10 |
7 | 28.7 | 19.5 | 9.20000000000003 |
8 | 28.7 | 28.6993918159556 | 0.000608184044438076 |
9 | 28.7 | 28.6999999597948 | 4.02051973935613e-08 |
10 | 21.8 | 28.6999999999973 | -6.89999999999734 |
11 | 21.8 | 21.8004561380333 | -0.000456138033328557 |
12 | 21.8 | 21.8000000301539 | -3.01538989333494e-08 |
13 | 20 | 21.800000000002 | -1.80000000000199 |
14 | 20 | 20.0001189925304 | -0.000118992530435236 |
15 | 20 | 20.0000000078662 | -7.86623388648877e-09 |
16 | 22.6 | 20.0000000000005 | 2.59999999999948 |
17 | 22.6 | 22.5998281219005 | 0.000171878099514799 |
18 | 22.6 | 22.5999999886377 | 1.13623386255313e-08 |
19 | 22.4 | 22.5999999999993 | -0.199999999999253 |
20 | 22.4 | 22.4000132213923 | -1.32213922690028e-05 |
21 | 22.4 | 22.400000000874 | -8.74024408403784e-10 |
22 | 18.6 | 22.4000000000001 | -3.80000000000005 |
23 | 18.6 | 18.6002512064531 | -0.000251206453135921 |
24 | 18.6 | 18.6000000166065 | -1.6606495734095e-08 |
25 | 16.2 | 18.6000000000011 | -2.4000000000011 |
26 | 16.2 | 16.2001586567072 | -0.000158656707245797 |
27 | 16.2 | 16.2000000104883 | -1.04883142171275e-08 |
28 | 13.8 | 16.2000000000007 | -2.40000000000069 |
29 | 13.8 | 13.8001586567072 | -0.00015865670724402 |
30 | 13.8 | 13.8000000104883 | -1.04883124407706e-08 |
31 | 24.1 | 13.8000000000007 | 10.2999999999993 |
32 | 24.1 | 24.0993190982981 | 0.00068090170192292 |
33 | 24.1 | 24.0999999549877 | 4.50123422979232e-08 |
34 | 19.9 | 24.099999999997 | -4.19999999999703 |
35 | 19.9 | 19.9002776492377 | -0.00027764923767748 |
36 | 19.9 | 19.9000000183545 | -1.83545481036163e-08 |
37 | 22.3 | 19.9000000000012 | 2.39999999999879 |
38 | 22.3 | 22.2998413432928 | 0.000158656707245797 |
39 | 22.3 | 22.2999999895117 | 1.04883142171275e-08 |
40 | 20.9 | 22.2999999999993 | -1.39999999999931 |
41 | 20.9 | 20.9000925497459 | -9.25497458936775e-05 |
42 | 20.9 | 20.9000000061182 | -6.11818151696752e-09 |
43 | 23.5 | 20.9000000000004 | 2.5999999999996 |
44 | 23.5 | 23.4998281219005 | 0.000171878099514799 |
45 | 23.5 | 23.4999999886377 | 1.13623386255313e-08 |
46 | 23.1 | 23.4999999999993 | -0.399999999999249 |
47 | 23.1 | 23.1000264427845 | -2.64427845415582e-05 |
48 | 23.1 | 23.1000000017481 | -1.74805236952125e-09 |
49 | 25.7 | 23.1000000000001 | 2.59999999999988 |
50 | 25.7 | 25.6998281219005 | 0.000171878099514799 |
51 | 25.7 | 25.6999999886377 | 1.13623386255313e-08 |
52 | 19.7 | 25.6999999999992 | -5.99999999999925 |
53 | 19.7 | 19.7003966417681 | -0.000396641768112715 |
54 | 19.7 | 19.7000000262208 | -2.6220781990105e-08 |
55 | 23.1 | 19.7000000000017 | 3.39999999999827 |
56 | 23.1 | 23.0997752363314 | 0.000224763668597916 |
57 | 23.1 | 23.0999999851416 | 1.48584433645738e-08 |
58 | 20.7 | 23.099999999999 | -2.39999999999902 |
59 | 20.7 | 20.7001586567072 | -0.000158656707245797 |
60 | 20.7 | 20.7000000104883 | -1.04883142171275e-08 |
61 | 18 | 20.7000000000007 | -2.70000000000069 |
62 | 18 | 18.0001784887957 | -0.000178488795651077 |
63 | 18 | 18.0000000117994 | -1.17993508297332e-08 |
64 | 16.9 | 18.0000000000008 | -1.10000000000078 |
65 | 16.9 | 16.9000727176575 | -7.2717657488397e-05 |
66 | 16.9 | 16.9000000048071 | -4.80714490436185e-09 |
67 | 24.4 | 16.9000000000003 | 7.49999999999968 |
68 | 24.4 | 24.3995041977899 | 0.000495802210139118 |
69 | 24.4 | 24.399999967224 | 3.27759792639881e-08 |
70 | 15.5 | 24.3999999999978 | -8.89999999999783 |
71 | 15.5 | 15.500588351956 | -0.000588351956031019 |
72 | 15.5 | 15.5000000388942 | -3.88941607809556e-08 |
73 | 18.4 | 15.5000000000026 | 2.89999999999743 |
74 | 18.4 | 18.3998082898121 | 0.00019171018792008 |
75 | 18.4 | 18.3999999873266 | 1.26733787908506e-08 |
76 | 16.2 | 18.3999999999992 | -2.19999999999916 |
77 | 16.2 | 16.200145435315 | -0.000145435314973241 |
78 | 16.2 | 16.2000000096143 | -9.61428625601002e-09 |
79 | 20.6 | 16.2000000000006 | 4.39999999999937 |
80 | 20.6 | 20.5997091293701 | 0.000290870629950035 |
81 | 20.6 | 20.5999999807714 | 1.922857251202e-08 |
82 | 19.8 | 20.5999999999987 | -0.799999999998729 |
83 | 19.8 | 19.8000528855691 | -5.28855690831165e-05 |
84 | 19.8 | 19.8000000034961 | -3.49610473904249e-09 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 19.8000000000002 | 14.7521329248574 | 24.847867075143 |
86 | 19.8000000000002 | 12.6614738783113 | 26.9385261216892 |
87 | 19.8000000000002 | 11.0572230743456 | 28.5427769256549 |
88 | 19.8000000000002 | 9.70476639430867 | 29.8952336056918 |
89 | 19.8000000000002 | 8.51322301384477 | 31.0867769861557 |
90 | 19.8000000000002 | 7.43598253329738 | 32.1640174667031 |
91 | 19.8000000000002 | 6.44535582283633 | 33.1546441771641 |
92 | 19.8000000000002 | 5.52330170241118 | 34.0766982975893 |
93 | 19.8000000000002 | 4.65728863571323 | 34.9427113642872 |
94 | 19.8000000000002 | 3.83819243807821 | 35.7618075619223 |
95 | 19.8000000000002 | 3.05912505794432 | 36.5408749420561 |
96 | 19.8000000000002 | 2.31473514620748 | 37.285264853793 |