Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.860966419321329 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | -5.3 | 1.72398504273504 | -7.02398504273504 |
14 | -7.1 | -7.00064466108957 | -0.0993553389104278 |
15 | -8 | -9.42173405701953 | 1.42173405701953 |
16 | -8.9 | -10.495716562268 | 1.59571656226802 |
17 | -7.7 | -9.38657263961484 | 1.68657263961483 |
18 | -1.1 | -3.07837135204145 | 1.97837135204145 |
19 | 4 | 1.26855882813246 | 2.73144117186754 |
20 | 9.6 | -4.76530983208567 | 14.3653098320857 |
21 | 10.9 | 11.3046917509388 | -0.404691750938829 |
22 | 13 | 14.562384624323 | -1.56238462432303 |
23 | 14.9 | 15.3983428098358 | -0.49834280983581 |
24 | 20.1 | 15.8045719330425 | 4.29542806695751 |
25 | 10.8 | 15.6865070119639 | -4.88650701196391 |
26 | 11 | 9.76493017726694 | 1.23506982273306 |
27 | 3.8 | 8.70421853985796 | -4.90421853985796 |
28 | 10.8 | 2.20799268915953 | 8.59200731084047 |
29 | 7.6 | 9.35334005190203 | -1.75334005190203 |
30 | 10.2 | 12.7404618465082 | -2.54046184650824 |
31 | 2.2 | 13.3015303817679 | -11.1015303817679 |
32 | -0.1 | -3.02456384858204 | 2.92456384858204 |
33 | -1.7 | 1.14181342394293 | -2.84181342394293 |
34 | -4.8 | 2.1402681915576 | -6.9402681915576 |
35 | -9.9 | -1.5060132378786 | -8.3939867621214 |
36 | -13.5 | -7.23117328655365 | -6.26882671344635 |
37 | -18.1 | -17.7213041302963 | -0.378695869703684 |
38 | -18 | -18.9107022001372 | 0.910702200137184 |
39 | -15.7 | -21.1042507119862 | 5.40425071198623 |
40 | -15.2 | -16.8488020965697 | 1.6488020965697 |
41 | -15.1 | -17.1196719529778 | 2.01967195297782 |
42 | -17.9 | -10.5935498840081 | -7.30645011599186 |
43 | -14.5 | -15.3261132165459 | 0.826113216545874 |
44 | -9.4 | -19.4328087433326 | 10.0328087433326 |
45 | -4.2 | -9.94819139585838 | 5.74819139585838 |
46 | -2.2 | -2.12385377817746 | -0.0761462218225444 |
47 | 4.5 | -0.0624723917105556 | 4.56247239171056 |
48 | 12.4 | 5.66291241545471 | 6.73708758454529 |
49 | 15.8 | 7.18936301672541 | 8.6106369832746 |
50 | 11.5 | 13.918748295971 | -2.41874829597098 |
51 | 14.1 | 9.48340885173575 | 4.61659114826425 |
52 | 18.8 | 12.5385755648742 | 6.26142443512575 |
53 | 26.1 | 16.2905820110765 | 9.80941798892349 |
54 | 27.9 | 28.2267696869416 | -0.326769686941635 |
55 | 25.4 | 30.6341762216292 | -5.23417622162922 |
56 | 23.4 | 22.5898148425134 | 0.810185157486561 |
57 | 11.5 | 23.5383572928761 | -12.0383572928761 |
58 | 9.9 | 15.2392952598652 | -5.33929525986515 |
59 | 8.1 | 13.4142058199362 | -5.31420581993625 |
60 | 12.6 | 10.938446889289 | 1.66155311071098 |
61 | 8.2 | 8.35551902996433 | -0.15551902996433 |
62 | 5.4 | 6.00408342722131 | -0.604083427221314 |
63 | 1 | 4.10925793152361 | -3.10925793152361 |
64 | -2.9 | 0.741415087711989 | -3.64141508771199 |
65 | -3.7 | -3.53930050316776 | -0.160699496832241 |
66 | -7 | -1.59631964623326 | -5.40368035376673 |
67 | -7.2 | -4.24225701193987 | -2.95774298806013 |
68 | -11.8 | -9.48631661567126 | -2.31368338432874 |
69 | -2.1 | -13.0136989415617 | 10.9136989415617 |
70 | 1.2 | -0.620416720708898 | 1.8204167207089 |
71 | 2.5 | 3.7222537013196 | -1.2222537013196 |
72 | 4.8 | 5.73939287635117 | -0.939392876351175 |
73 | -6.6 | 0.664503817627854 | -7.26450381762785 |
74 | -16 | -7.86989447707523 | -8.13010552292477 |
75 | -22.7 | -16.592675649802 | -6.10732435019799 |
76 | -17.7 | -22.6157407178959 | 4.91574071789588 |
77 | -18.2 | -19.0450961633226 | 0.845096163322612 |
78 | -18.9 | -16.965109420265 | -1.93489057973501 |
79 | -16 | -16.2844678447751 | 0.284467844775115 |
80 | -12.2 | -18.6475468841983 | 6.44754688419826 |
81 | -17.1 | -12.7927538291711 | -4.30724617082894 |
82 | -18.6 | -14.7684658077066 | -3.83153419229343 |
83 | -17.5 | -15.7149686890253 | -1.78503131097469 |
84 | -24.9 | -14.1430349841236 | -10.7569650158764 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | -28.5499267965983 | -39.0735983187005 | -18.0262552744962 |
86 | -30.9501789558212 | -44.8368929699878 | -17.0634649416547 |
87 | -32.3919777783973 | -48.9731113318488 | -15.8108442249458 |
88 | -31.6242654625962 | -50.519427640348 | -12.7291032848444 |
89 | -32.8518648803142 | -53.80706274456 | -11.8966670160685 |
90 | -31.8859890661012 | -54.716089401751 | -9.05588873045144 |
91 | -29.2309063278293 | -53.7932076276257 | -4.66860502803286 |
92 | -30.9820276821239 | -57.1621691818967 | -4.80188618235103 |
93 | -32.1736333692898 | -59.8772968951535 | -4.469969843426 |
94 | -30.3748110952437 | -59.5224720058626 | -1.22715018462475 |
95 | -27.7379590790573 | -58.2613812392046 | 2.78546308108992 |
96 | -25.8765734265734 | -57.7163671472104 | 5.96322029406356 |