Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.750204331714779 |
beta | 0.0598915504599032 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 16.66 | 16.7628926282051 | -0.102892628205122 |
14 | 16.65 | 16.6730531419741 | -0.0230531419740529 |
15 | 16.5 | 16.5024904523918 | -0.0024904523918039 |
16 | 16.39 | 16.3864087500037 | 0.00359124999630822 |
17 | 16.34 | 16.3342175918546 | 0.00578240814542497 |
18 | 16.35 | 16.3451800588459 | 0.00481994115405371 |
19 | 16.35 | 16.3856370432281 | -0.035637043228089 |
20 | 16.38 | 16.3558084848988 | 0.0241915151012329 |
21 | 16.36 | 16.3590338500818 | 0.000966149918230741 |
22 | 16.38 | 16.3327955223514 | 0.0472044776485738 |
23 | 16.39 | 16.3954496614015 | -0.00544966140150649 |
24 | 16.41 | 16.4196075790588 | -0.00960757905883369 |
25 | 16.41 | 16.3849290655417 | 0.02507093445832 |
26 | 16.41 | 16.4126220067224 | -0.00262200672241519 |
27 | 16.45 | 16.265031353982 | 0.184968646017968 |
28 | 16.41 | 16.3020322081559 | 0.107967791844089 |
29 | 16.44 | 16.3443126036734 | 0.0956873963266354 |
30 | 16.47 | 16.4421417522709 | 0.0278582477291351 |
31 | 16.47 | 16.510471316568 | -0.0404713165680342 |
32 | 16.49 | 16.5124388938715 | -0.0224388938715236 |
33 | 16.54 | 16.4932630960893 | 0.0467369039107481 |
34 | 16.62 | 16.533351608896 | 0.0866483911040028 |
35 | 16.69 | 16.6346555060327 | 0.0553444939673398 |
36 | 16.72 | 16.7283259079265 | -0.00832590792650478 |
37 | 16.72 | 16.7282721140978 | -0.00827211409779949 |
38 | 16.71 | 16.7475359078641 | -0.037535907864136 |
39 | 16.89 | 16.6425458434882 | 0.247454156511818 |
40 | 16.93 | 16.7319304645099 | 0.198069535490077 |
41 | 16.91 | 16.86752768732 | 0.0424723126800011 |
42 | 16.93 | 16.9348899190364 | -0.00488991903641889 |
43 | 16.93 | 16.986510529854 | -0.0565105298540338 |
44 | 16.93 | 17.0051564769146 | -0.0751564769146142 |
45 | 16.95 | 16.9855495220924 | -0.0355495220923849 |
46 | 16.93 | 16.9920169025398 | -0.0620169025397637 |
47 | 16.95 | 16.9854329932282 | -0.0354329932282376 |
48 | 16.95 | 17.0024795448861 | -0.0524795448860864 |
49 | 16.95 | 16.9747134806133 | -0.0247134806132721 |
50 | 16.95 | 16.9789927374741 | -0.0289927374740664 |
51 | 16.92 | 16.9566447488504 | -0.0366447488503532 |
52 | 16.91 | 16.8128399250824 | 0.0971600749175963 |
53 | 16.9 | 16.821611817323 | 0.0783881826769708 |
54 | 16.96 | 16.893446038468 | 0.0665539615320441 |
55 | 16.96 | 16.9783382193841 | -0.0183382193840806 |
56 | 16.95 | 17.0152473049889 | -0.0652473049889331 |
57 | 16.92 | 17.0076969103213 | -0.0876969103212772 |
58 | 16.87 | 16.9608176388323 | -0.0908176388323376 |
59 | 16.87 | 16.9303597763576 | -0.0603597763576467 |
60 | 16.88 | 16.914419948326 | -0.0344199483259899 |
61 | 16.88 | 16.8979215038932 | -0.0179215038931844 |
62 | 16.86 | 16.8973157506047 | -0.0373157506047228 |
63 | 16.88 | 16.8575269610282 | 0.0224730389718246 |
64 | 16.88 | 16.7848672374325 | 0.0951327625674843 |
65 | 16.88 | 16.7807088191233 | 0.0992911808767474 |
66 | 16.88 | 16.8594873387422 | 0.0205126612578148 |
67 | 16.88 | 16.8807836764633 | -0.000783676463338878 |
68 | 16.87 | 16.9120835500168 | -0.0420835500167982 |
69 | 16.92 | 16.9102826390687 | 0.0097173609313046 |
70 | 16.94 | 16.9340610908853 | 0.00593890911475015 |
71 | 17.03 | 16.9865026702556 | 0.0434973297443726 |
72 | 17.02 | 17.0623269614311 | -0.0423269614310691 |
73 | 17.02 | 17.0510330239005 | -0.0310330239005232 |
74 | 17.02 | 17.0421723827188 | -0.0221723827188427 |
75 | 16.99 | 17.0357856291622 | -0.0457856291621717 |
76 | 17.03 | 16.934107553023 | 0.0958924469770075 |
77 | 16.98 | 16.9356314531884 | 0.0443685468115618 |
78 | 16.89 | 16.9551341635159 | -0.0651341635159035 |
79 | 16.89 | 16.9046158820597 | -0.0146158820596689 |
80 | 16.9 | 16.9123584847672 | -0.0123584847672085 |
81 | 16.89 | 16.9442689028736 | -0.0542689028736163 |
82 | 16.96 | 16.9146975942345 | 0.0453024057654545 |
83 | 16.97 | 17.0034172601571 | -0.0334172601571261 |
84 | 16.97 | 16.994011004927 | -0.0240110049269617 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 16.994011554679 | 16.8650408789105 | 17.1229822304475 |
86 | 17.0067723146517 | 16.8420004757032 | 17.1715441536001 |
87 | 17.0082440595157 | 16.8110432509603 | 17.2054448680711 |
88 | 16.9754854875033 | 16.7476351114929 | 17.2033358635138 |
89 | 16.8870718345796 | 16.629584315549 | 17.1445593536103 |
90 | 16.8388140705121 | 16.5522701761315 | 17.1253579648928 |
91 | 16.8455838094912 | 16.5302971218791 | 17.1608704971032 |
92 | 16.8613167439868 | 16.517424526746 | 17.2052089612276 |
93 | 16.8890463335404 | 16.5165640558766 | 17.2615286112041 |
94 | 16.9245154467184 | 16.5233715518923 | 17.3256593415446 |
95 | 16.9570049163729 | 16.5270640514701 | 17.3869457812757 |
96 | 16.9739392402026 | 16.5150183595146 | 17.4328601208905 |