Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0718071265959284 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 16.38 | 16.44 | -0.0600000000000023 |
4 | 16.37 | 16.4456915724042 | -0.0756915724042422 |
5 | 16.42 | 16.4302563780824 | -0.0102563780823672 |
6 | 16.43 | 16.479519897043 | -0.0495198970429946 |
7 | 16.44 | 16.485964015527 | -0.0459640155270051 |
8 | 16.53 | 16.4926634716452 | 0.0373365283547962 |
9 | 16.55 | 16.5853445004634 | -0.0353445004634274 |
10 | 16.56 | 16.6028065134442 | -0.0428065134441837 |
11 | 16.6 | 16.6097327007142 | -0.0097327007141601 |
12 | 16.61 | 16.6490338234419 | -0.0390338234418657 |
13 | 16.62 | 16.6562309167404 | -0.0362309167404469 |
14 | 16.64 | 16.6636292787154 | -0.0236292787153829 |
15 | 16.61 | 16.6819325281073 | -0.0719325281072969 |
16 | 16.74 | 16.6467672599551 | 0.0932327400448685 |
17 | 16.87 | 16.7834620351224 | 0.0865379648775857 |
18 | 16.89 | 16.9196760777217 | -0.0296760777217351 |
19 | 16.89 | 16.9375451238519 | -0.0475451238519007 |
20 | 16.99 | 16.9341310451244 | 0.0558689548755495 |
21 | 17.06 | 17.03814283424 | 0.0218571657600215 |
22 | 17.1 | 17.1097123345087 | -0.00971233450873399 |
23 | 17.11 | 17.1490149196751 | -0.0390149196751288 |
24 | 17.17 | 17.1562133703989 | 0.0137866296011175 |
25 | 17.17 | 17.217203348656 | -0.0472033486559837 |
26 | 17.21 | 17.2138138118233 | -0.00381381182329221 |
27 | 17.37 | 17.2535399529549 | 0.116460047045116 |
28 | 17.43 | 17.4219026142964 | 0.00809738570357865 |
29 | 17.44 | 17.4824840642967 | -0.0424840642967297 |
30 | 17.46 | 17.4894334057135 | -0.0294334057134691 |
31 | 17.42 | 17.5073198774233 | -0.0873198774232513 |
32 | 17.47 | 17.4610496879308 | 0.00895031206921715 |
33 | 17.45 | 17.5116923841226 | -0.0616923841226047 |
34 | 17.44 | 17.4872624312859 | -0.0472624312859082 |
35 | 17.46 | 17.4738686518993 | -0.0138686518993332 |
36 | 17.47 | 17.4928727838567 | -0.022872783856684 |
37 | 17.47 | 17.5012303549707 | -0.0312303549706812 |
38 | 17.56 | 17.4989877929177 | 0.0610122070823316 |
39 | 17.61 | 17.5933689041955 | 0.016631095804474 |
40 | 17.61 | 17.6445631353974 | -0.0345631353973879 |
41 | 17.6 | 17.6420812559584 | -0.042081255958351 |
42 | 17.57 | 17.6290595218844 | -0.0590595218844392 |
43 | 17.59 | 17.5948186273198 | -0.00481862731978566 |
44 | 17.59 | 17.6144726155378 | -0.0244726155378139 |
45 | 17.68 | 17.6127153073358 | 0.0672846926642414 |
46 | 17.73 | 17.7075468277799 | 0.022453172220132 |
47 | 17.75 | 17.75915912556 | -0.00915912555995746 |
48 | 17.75 | 17.7785014350714 | -0.0285014350713659 |
49 | 17.75 | 17.776454828915 | -0.0264548289150319 |
50 | 17.85 | 17.7745551836661 | 0.0754448163339454 |
51 | 18.06 | 17.8799726591436 | 0.180027340856444 |
52 | 18.05 | 18.1028999051992 | -0.0528999051991583 |
53 | 18.16 | 18.0891013150096 | 0.0708986849903859 |
54 | 18.2 | 18.2041923458582 | -0.00419234585820405 |
55 | 18.21 | 18.2438913055484 | -0.0338913055484262 |
56 | 18.33 | 18.2514576682804 | 0.0785423317195857 |
57 | 18.36 | 18.3770975674373 | -0.0170975674373395 |
58 | 18.37 | 18.4058698402479 | -0.0358698402478836 |
59 | 18.4 | 18.4132941300882 | -0.0132941300882301 |
60 | 18.47 | 18.442339516806 | 0.0276604831940013 |
61 | 18.49 | 18.5143257366244 | -0.0243257366244158 |
62 | 18.5 | 18.5325789753751 | -0.0325789753750847 |
63 | 18.53 | 18.540239572766 | -0.0102395727659612 |
64 | 18.56 | 18.5695042984681 | -0.0095042984680731 |
65 | 18.6 | 18.5988218221048 | 0.001178177895234 |
66 | 18.61 | 18.638906423674 | -0.0289064236740444 |
67 | 18.62 | 18.6468307364498 | -0.0268307364498419 |
68 | 18.61 | 18.6549040983609 | -0.0449040983609308 |
69 | 18.65 | 18.6416796640852 | 0.00832033591474968 |
70 | 18.77 | 18.6822771234996 | 0.0877228765004006 |
71 | 18.78 | 18.8085762511978 | -0.0285762511978227 |
72 | 18.78 | 18.8165242727104 | -0.0365242727104267 |
73 | 18.8 | 18.8139015696361 | -0.0139015696360829 |
74 | 18.85 | 18.8329033378653 | 0.0170966621346587 |
75 | 18.85 | 18.8841310000476 | -0.0341310000476156 |
76 | 18.98 | 18.8816801510063 | 0.0983198489936505 |
77 | 19.06 | 19.0187402168499 | 0.0412597831500676 |
78 | 19.08 | 19.1017029633219 | -0.021702963321907 |
79 | 19.19 | 19.1201445358871 | 0.0698554641128588 |
80 | 19.21 | 19.2351606560421 | -0.0251606560421145 |
81 | 19.29 | 19.2533539416285 | 0.036646058371538 |
82 | 19.3 | 19.3359853897812 | -0.0359853897811853 |
83 | 19.36 | 19.3434013823416 | 0.0165986176584347 |
84 | 19.36 | 19.4045932813811 | -0.0445932813810828 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 19.4013911659796 | 19.3048223795813 | 19.4979599523779 |
86 | 19.4427823319592 | 19.3012251880064 | 19.5843394759121 |
87 | 19.4841734979389 | 19.3046328248957 | 19.663714170982 |
88 | 19.5255646639185 | 19.311062950386 | 19.7400663774509 |
89 | 19.5669558298981 | 19.319038524567 | 19.8148731352292 |
90 | 19.6083469958777 | 19.327834895277 | 19.8888590964785 |
91 | 19.6497381618574 | 19.3370413441655 | 19.9624349795493 |
92 | 19.691129327837 | 19.3464034313627 | 20.0358552243113 |
93 | 19.7325204938166 | 19.3557538019721 | 20.1092871856611 |
94 | 19.7739116597962 | 19.3649776079875 | 20.182845711605 |
95 | 19.8153028257759 | 19.3739935584591 | 20.2566120930926 |
96 | 19.8566939917555 | 19.3827427896891 | 20.3306451938218 |