Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.972448439053752 |
beta | 0.065187907046855 |
gamma | 0.74672997962751 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 465 | 598.841346153846 | -133.841346153846 |
14 | 426 | 427.057687387933 | -1.05768738793273 |
15 | 384 | 381.207241530441 | 2.79275846955909 |
16 | 379 | 370.944860608845 | 8.05513939115468 |
17 | 381 | 364.7688375507 | 16.2311624492999 |
18 | 380 | 361.530832563584 | 18.4691674364157 |
19 | 351 | 437.348300583373 | -86.3483005833725 |
20 | 346 | 319.387404466556 | 26.6125955334442 |
21 | 339 | 337.628844540689 | 1.37115545931061 |
22 | 336 | 184.91120573548 | 151.08879426452 |
23 | 333 | 259.072386900154 | 73.927613099846 |
24 | 324 | 319.384708149635 | 4.61529185036505 |
25 | 324 | 326.583347633008 | -2.58334763300775 |
26 | 321 | 298.686681408931 | 22.3133185910689 |
27 | 304 | 290.637605247258 | 13.362394752742 |
28 | 343 | 306.426999695704 | 36.5730003042963 |
29 | 407 | 345.62421984505 | 61.3757801549499 |
30 | 389 | 406.667757603921 | -17.6677576039215 |
31 | 361 | 463.23135747429 | -102.23135747429 |
32 | 353 | 349.186058707081 | 3.81394129291914 |
33 | 361 | 360.329468422369 | 0.670531577630754 |
34 | 387 | 225.558114524396 | 161.441885475604 |
35 | 692 | 324.403341714789 | 367.596658285211 |
36 | 704 | 703.687577729321 | 0.31242227067878 |
37 | 742 | 741.10094218347 | 0.899057816529762 |
38 | 721 | 751.870850931602 | -30.8708509316018 |
39 | 843 | 723.315216968909 | 119.684783031091 |
40 | 847 | 881.111610370015 | -34.1116103700145 |
41 | 945 | 885.737576110375 | 59.2624238896245 |
42 | 946 | 976.621408986575 | -30.6214089865755 |
43 | 946 | 1051.5489521942 | -105.548952194195 |
44 | 945 | 968.949363229427 | -23.9493632294269 |
45 | 1082 | 983.759920130764 | 98.2400798692356 |
46 | 1075 | 984.092880381831 | 90.907119618169 |
47 | 820 | 1051.0320117677 | -231.032011767702 |
48 | 832 | 835.12017193719 | -3.12017193719021 |
49 | 851 | 863.485776372315 | -12.4857763723148 |
50 | 1090 | 854.015705244088 | 235.984294755912 |
51 | 1203 | 1098.40655986511 | 104.593440134886 |
52 | 1239 | 1247.75274082413 | -8.75274082412693 |
53 | 1535 | 1289.95696615997 | 245.043033840028 |
54 | 1527 | 1582.42764176637 | -55.427641766368 |
55 | 1480 | 1652.89237188301 | -172.892371883008 |
56 | 1452 | 1523.41604587531 | -71.4160458753065 |
57 | 1383 | 1508.50504393868 | -125.505043938681 |
58 | 1381 | 1290.84638763258 | 90.1536123674177 |
59 | 1429 | 1350.12141152124 | 78.8785884787642 |
60 | 1376 | 1459.60850674546 | -83.6085067454574 |
61 | 1602 | 1423.74625883426 | 178.253741165736 |
62 | 1597 | 1631.19937532074 | -34.1993753207355 |
63 | 2003 | 1619.3468350314 | 383.653164968603 |
64 | 1958 | 2064.62186675377 | -106.621866753769 |
65 | 1997 | 2037.56038568516 | -40.5603856851599 |
66 | 1986 | 2048.69525362652 | -62.6952536265158 |
67 | 2129 | 2111.79577703463 | 17.2042229653739 |
68 | 2115 | 2183.43673986894 | -68.4367398689442 |
69 | 2297 | 2184.66944002179 | 112.330559978208 |
70 | 2250 | 2232.16664582023 | 17.8333541797674 |
71 | 2309 | 2245.73359338986 | 63.2664066101388 |
72 | 2648 | 2360.55763393382 | 287.44236606618 |
73 | 2627 | 2738.29421082749 | -111.294210827492 |
74 | 2711 | 2688.83450406208 | 22.1654959379221 |
75 | 2732 | 2772.99224228452 | -40.9922422845234 |
76 | 2825 | 2800.91735585432 | 24.0826441456752 |
77 | 2932 | 2916.28655396761 | 15.7134460323941 |
78 | 2910 | 2999.22489286576 | -89.2248928657636 |
79 | 2969 | 3054.02422888183 | -85.0242288818295 |
80 | 2999 | 3033.86459966967 | -34.8645996696705 |
81 | 2965 | 3082.96495334939 | -117.964953349386 |
82 | 2846 | 2901.47008431983 | -55.4700843198329 |
83 | 2847 | 2836.94367838672 | 10.05632161328 |
84 | 2751 | 2893.51840931585 | -142.518409315852 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 2806.56349585781 | 2586.1060054505 | 3027.02098626513 |
86 | 2836.75919527383 | 2519.3490081162 | 3154.16938243146 |
87 | 2865.3394196784 | 2465.99623323895 | 3264.68260611785 |
88 | 2904.34144233806 | 2429.82128549933 | 3378.8615991768 |
89 | 2964.46792626499 | 2418.36991654471 | 3510.56593598526 |
90 | 2997.31928714748 | 2381.66795342422 | 3612.97062087075 |
91 | 3111.98028219955 | 2427.89653150255 | 3796.06403289656 |
92 | 3153.93276876107 | 2401.9715402294 | 3905.89399729274 |
93 | 3215.83608308986 | 2396.17608547267 | 4035.49608070705 |
94 | 3138.42841837333 | 2250.98734503854 | 4025.86949170812 |
95 | 3120.79490131608 | 2165.30353908652 | 4076.28626354564 |
96 | 3155.41686040364 | 2131.46892281503 | 4179.36479799225 |