| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.594274923316691 |
| beta | 0.0241142539120853 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 43129 | 38294 | 4835 |
| 4 | 37863 | 39840.6072043033 | -1977.60720430333 |
| 5 | 35953 | 37310.3126917717 | -1357.31269177168 |
| 6 | 29133 | 35129.192688473 | -5996.19268847296 |
| 7 | 24693 | 30105.3742131567 | -5412.37421315672 |
| 8 | 22205 | 25350.9424083429 | -3145.94240834287 |
| 9 | 21725 | 21898.3112741974 | -173.311274197404 |
| 10 | 27192 | 20209.756642755 | 6982.24335724496 |
| 11 | 21790 | 22873.6277044576 | -1083.6277044576 |
| 12 | 13253 | 20728.6249365729 | -7475.62493657291 |
| 13 | 37702 | 14677.8890875326 | 23024.1109124674 |
| 14 | 30364 | 27082.3283597765 | 3281.67164022354 |
| 15 | 32609 | 27801.3590310311 | 4807.64096896886 |
| 16 | 30212 | 29496.1308896812 | 715.869110318847 |
| 17 | 29965 | 28769.5241005069 | 1195.47589949314 |
| 18 | 28352 | 28345.0673622586 | 6.93263774138904 |
| 19 | 25814 | 27214.3885164144 | -1400.38851641443 |
| 20 | 22414 | 25227.305737017 | -2813.30573701704 |
| 21 | 20506 | 22360.2456169724 | -1854.24561697241 |
| 22 | 28806 | 20036.558616095 | 8769.44138390503 |
| 23 | 22228 | 24151.9328411378 | -1923.93284113783 |
| 24 | 13971 | 21884.9320059536 | -7913.93200595359 |
| 25 | 36845 | 15944.8143023542 | 20900.1856976458 |
| 26 | 35338 | 27427.7142232828 | 7910.2857767172 |
| 27 | 35022 | 31304.4006866123 | 3717.59931338768 |
| 28 | 34777 | 32742.7537670123 | 2034.24623298775 |
| 29 | 26887 | 33209.8840829498 | -6322.88408294984 |
| 30 | 23970 | 28619.9713536828 | -4649.97135368283 |
| 31 | 22780 | 24957.5923105983 | -2177.59231059827 |
| 32 | 17351 | 22733.280154997 | -5382.28015499698 |
| 33 | 21382 | 18527.3716300566 | 2854.62836994335 |
| 34 | 24561 | 19257.3595287048 | 5303.64047129522 |
| 35 | 17409 | 21518.7377067368 | -4109.73770673676 |
| 36 | 11514 | 18127.0867084793 | -6613.08670847928 |
| 37 | 31514 | 13152.9893589443 | 18361.0106410557 |
| 38 | 27071 | 23283.4941934978 | 3787.50580650217 |
| 39 | 29462 | 24807.6073983456 | 4654.39260165436 |
| 40 | 26105 | 26913.5894433031 | -808.589443303106 |
| 41 | 22397 | 25761.4707643112 | -3364.47076431117 |
| 42 | 23843 | 23042.2413731134 | 800.758626886563 |
| 43 | 21705 | 22809.7786275816 | -1104.77862758158 |
| 44 | 18089 | 21429.0708501344 | -3340.07085013435 |
| 45 | 20764 | 18672.1200852641 | 2091.87991473585 |
| 46 | 25316 | 19173.219122223 | 6142.78087777705 |
| 47 | 17704 | 22169.6961175774 | -4465.69611757741 |
| 48 | 15548 | 18797.8256178991 | -3249.8256178991 |
| 49 | 28029 | 16101.9448518803 | 11927.0551481197 |
| 50 | 29383 | 22596.2243600703 | 6786.7756399297 |
| 51 | 36438 | 26133.0225215423 | 10304.9774784577 |
| 52 | 32034 | 31908.275253418 | 125.72474658204 |
| 53 | 22679 | 31636.0550466646 | -8957.05504666461 |
| 54 | 24319 | 25837.8075297262 | -1518.80752972615 |
| 55 | 18004 | 24438.1587196983 | -6434.15871969827 |
| 56 | 17537 | 20025.2352698412 | -2488.23526984119 |
| 57 | 20366 | 17921.6175289985 | 2444.38247100153 |
| 58 | 22782 | 18784.3600320329 | 3997.63996796707 |
| 59 | 19169 | 20627.4526801149 | -1458.4526801149 |
| 60 | 13807 | 19207.2259372753 | -5400.22593727535 |
| 61 | 29743 | 15367.1142759817 | 14375.8857240183 |
| 62 | 25591 | 23485.4634342406 | 2105.5365657594 |
| 63 | 29096 | 24342.0251715702 | 4753.97482842984 |
| 64 | 26482 | 26840.6141734953 | -358.61417349528 |
| 65 | 22405 | 26295.7806192313 | -3890.78061923132 |
| 66 | 27044 | 23596.1123036503 | 3447.88769634968 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25307.0404807588 | -7337.04048075883 |
| 68 | 18730 | 20503.6128602848 | -1773.61286028477 |
| 69 | 19684 | 18980.9740096464 | 703.025990353566 |
| 70 | 19785 | 18940.2142334743 | 844.785766525703 |
| 71 | 18479 | 18995.8049367975 | -516.804936797522 |
| 72 | 10698 | 18234.8303580312 | -7536.83035803121 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 13194.0241901087 | 447.148586398538 | 25940.8997938189 |
| 74 | 12632.1673052562 | -2289.84902000616 | 27554.1836305185 |
| 75 | 12070.3104204036 | -4832.8815609738 | 28973.502401781 |
| 76 | 11508.453535551 | -7245.30761967863 | 30262.2146907806 |
| 77 | 10946.5966506984 | -9564.13912603357 | 31457.3324274304 |
| 78 | 10384.7397658458 | -11813.116189923 | 32582.5957216147 |
| 79 | 9822.88288099327 | -14008.4803663132 | 33654.2461282998 |
| 80 | 9261.02599614069 | -16161.8812657394 | 34683.9332580208 |
| 81 | 8699.16911128811 | -18281.9828890165 | 35680.3211115927 |
| 82 | 8137.31222643554 | -20375.4157918451 | 36650.0402447161 |
| 83 | 7575.45534158296 | -22447.3732552713 | 37598.2839384372 |
| 84 | 7013.59845673038 | -24502.0013783623 | 38529.1982918231 |
