Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999954055201604 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 26.85 | 26.73 | 0.120000000000001 |
3 | 27.01 | 26.8499944866242 | 0.160005513375808 |
4 | 27.09 | 27.0099926485789 | 0.0800073514210524 |
5 | 27.11 | 27.0899963240784 | 0.0200036759216324 |
6 | 27.16 | 27.1099990809351 | 0.0500009190648569 |
7 | 27.13 | 27.1599977027179 | -0.0299977027178535 |
8 | 27.19 | 27.1300013782384 | 0.0599986217615971 |
9 | 27.49 | 27.1899972433754 | 0.300002756624579 |
10 | 27.63 | 27.4899862164338 | 0.140013783566172 |
11 | 27.72 | 27.6299935670949 | 0.0900064329050601 |
12 | 27.77 | 27.7199958646726 | 0.0500041353274163 |
13 | 27.81 | 27.7699977025701 | 0.0400022974299148 |
14 | 27.92 | 27.8099981621025 | 0.110001837897492 |
15 | 28.07 | 27.9199949459877 | 0.150005054012265 |
16 | 28.14 | 28.069993108048 | 0.0700068919519659 |
17 | 28.17 | 28.1399967835475 | 0.0300032164525383 |
18 | 28.2 | 28.1699986215083 | 0.030001378491729 |
19 | 28.21 | 28.1999986215927 | 0.0100013784072885 |
20 | 28.2 | 28.2099995404887 | -0.00999954048868545 |
21 | 28.19 | 28.2000004594269 | -0.0100004594268697 |
22 | 28.24 | 28.1900004594691 | 0.0499995405309051 |
23 | 28.25 | 28.2399977027812 | 0.0100022972188114 |
24 | 28.26 | 28.2499995404465 | 0.010000459553531 |
25 | 28.33 | 28.2599995405309 | 0.0700004594690959 |
26 | 28.67 | 28.329996783843 | 0.340003216157001 |
27 | 28.81 | 28.6699843786208 | 0.140015621379217 |
28 | 28.99 | 28.8099935670105 | 0.180006432989497 |
29 | 29.16 | 28.9899917296407 | 0.170008270359276 |
30 | 29.25 | 29.1599921890043 | 0.0900078109957079 |
31 | 29.25 | 29.2499958646093 | 4.13539073207403e-06 |
32 | 29.38 | 29.24999999981 | 0.130000000189998 |
33 | 29.48 | 29.3799940271762 | 0.100005972823801 |
34 | 29.65 | 29.4799954052457 | 0.170004594754257 |
35 | 29.69 | 29.6499921891732 | 0.040007810826836 |
36 | 29.73 | 29.6899981618492 | 0.0400018381508005 |
37 | 29.81 | 29.7299981621236 | 0.080001837876388 |
38 | 30.05 | 29.8099963243317 | 0.240003675668316 |
39 | 30.29 | 30.0499889730795 | 0.240011026920492 |
40 | 30.37 | 30.2899889727418 | 0.0800110272582479 |
41 | 30.5 | 30.3699963239095 | 0.130003676090517 |
42 | 30.67 | 30.4999940270073 | 0.170005972992691 |
43 | 30.76 | 30.6699921891098 | 0.0900078108901567 |
44 | 30.84 | 30.7599958646093 | 0.0800041353907233 |
45 | 30.86 | 30.8399963242261 | 0.0200036757738715 |
46 | 31.09 | 30.8599990809352 | 0.23000091906485 |
47 | 31.2 | 31.0899894326541 | 0.110010567345856 |
48 | 31.19 | 31.1999949455867 | -0.00999494558665859 |
49 | 31.18 | 31.1900004592158 | -0.0100004592157603 |
50 | 31.31 | 31.1800004594691 | 0.129999540530918 |
51 | 31.39 | 31.3099940271973 | 0.0800059728026845 |
52 | 31.39 | 31.3899963241417 | 3.67585829152972e-06 |
53 | 31.37 | 31.3899999998311 | -0.0199999998311142 |
54 | 31.36 | 31.370000918896 | -0.0100009188959618 |
55 | 31.37 | 31.3600004594902 | 0.00999954050979923 |
56 | 31.35 | 31.3699995405731 | -0.0199995405731279 |
57 | 31.34 | 31.3500009188749 | -0.0100009188748622 |
58 | 31.47 | 31.3400004594902 | 0.129999540509797 |
59 | 31.48 | 31.4699940271973 | 0.0100059728026807 |
60 | 31.54 | 31.4799995402776 | 0.0600004597224029 |
61 | 31.55 | 31.539997243291 | 0.0100027567090279 |
62 | 31.55 | 31.5499995404254 | 4.59574639677385e-07 |
63 | 31.57 | 31.5499999999789 | 0.0200000000211134 |
64 | 31.66 | 31.569999081104 | 0.0900009188959672 |
65 | 31.74 | 31.6599958649259 | 0.0800041350740734 |
66 | 31.78 | 31.7399963242261 | 0.0400036757738604 |
67 | 31.8 | 31.7799981620392 | 0.0200018379608196 |
68 | 31.68 | 31.7999990810196 | -0.119999081019589 |
69 | 31.7 | 31.6800055133336 | 0.0199944866664161 |
70 | 31.7 | 31.6999990813573 | 9.18642658831459e-07 |
71 | 31.75 | 31.6999999999578 | 0.0500000000422069 |
72 | 31.73 | 31.7499977027601 | -0.0199977027600795 |
73 | 31.82 | 31.7300009187904 | 0.0899990812095766 |
74 | 31.9 | 31.8199958650104 | 0.0800041349896397 |
75 | 31.82 | 31.8999963242261 | -0.0799963242261441 |
76 | 31.51 | 31.820003675415 | -0.310003675414986 |
77 | 31.42 | 31.5100142430564 | -0.0900142430563697 |
78 | 30.97 | 31.4200041356863 | -0.450004135686253 |
79 | 30.99 | 30.9700206753493 | 0.0199793246507092 |
80 | 30.92 | 30.989999082054 | -0.069999082053954 |
81 | 30.95 | 30.9200032160937 | 0.0299967839062845 |
82 | 30.82 | 30.9499986218038 | -0.129998621803811 |
83 | 30.72 | 30.8200059727605 | -0.100005972760471 |
84 | 30.73 | 30.7200045947543 | 0.00999540524574627 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.5146352660396 | 30.9453638154866 |
86 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.4254354592466 | 31.0345636222797 |
87 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.356989100329 | 31.1030099811973 |
88 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.2992858335332 | 31.1607132479931 |
89 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.2484480829535 | 31.2115509985728 |
90 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.2024871566038 | 31.2575119249225 |
91 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.1602216679352 | 31.2997774135911 |
92 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.120881872913 | 31.3391172086133 |
93 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.0839331028405 | 31.3760659786858 |
94 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.0489860672305 | 31.4110130142957 |
95 | 30.7299995407631 | 30.0157468823461 | 31.4442521991801 |
96 | 30.7299995407631 | 29.9839872292168 | 31.4760118523094 |