Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.99992908472251 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 75.8 | 71.4 | 4.39999999999999 |
3 | 79.2 | 75.799687972779 | 3.40031202722096 |
4 | 84.4 | 79.199758865929 | 5.20024113407096 |
5 | 84.4 | 84.399631223457 | 0.000368776543041349 |
6 | 87.2 | 84.3999999738481 | 2.80000002615189 |
7 | 92.4 | 87.1998014372212 | 5.20019856277882 |
8 | 88.5 | 92.3996312264759 | -3.89963122647592 |
9 | 94.8 | 88.5002765434305 | 6.29972345656947 |
10 | 100.9 | 94.799553253363 | 6.10044674663703 |
11 | 110 | 100.899567385126 | 9.10043261487384 |
12 | 107.9 | 109.999354640296 | -2.09935464029583 |
13 | 111.2 | 107.900148876317 | 3.29985112368313 |
14 | 116.7 | 111.199765990142 | 5.5002340098581 |
15 | 125.8 | 116.699609949379 | 9.10039005062106 |
16 | 131.5 | 125.799354643314 | 5.70064535668571 |
17 | 146.2 | 131.499595737153 | 14.7004042628473 |
18 | 155.4 | 146.198957516752 | 9.20104248324753 |
19 | 157.5 | 155.399347505519 | 2.1006524944809 |
20 | 137.2 | 157.499851031645 | -20.2998510316455 |
21 | 121.3 | 137.201439569569 | -15.9014395695689 |
22 | 89.1 | 121.301127655 | -32.2011276549996 |
23 | 69.6 | 89.1022835519031 | -19.5022835519031 |
24 | 56.7 | 69.6013830098498 | -12.9013830098498 |
25 | 58.5 | 56.7009149051561 | 1.79908509484385 |
26 | 56.4 | 58.4998724173813 | -2.09987241738127 |
27 | 60.5 | 56.4001489130352 | 4.09985108696483 |
28 | 64.6 | 60.4997092579225 | 4.10029074207749 |
29 | 73.2 | 64.5997092267442 | 8.60029077325576 |
30 | 84.6 | 73.1993901079933 | 11.4006098920067 |
31 | 80.4 | 84.599191522586 | -4.19919152258595 |
32 | 88.4 | 80.4002977868321 | 7.99970221316795 |
33 | 84.6 | 88.3994326988977 | -3.79943269889773 |
34 | 90.8 | 84.6002694378241 | 6.19973056217586 |
35 | 94.9 | 90.7995603443868 | 4.10043965561319 |
36 | 93.1 | 94.899709216184 | -1.799709216184 |
37 | 96.6 | 93.1001276268785 | 3.49987237312153 |
38 | 93.1 | 96.5997518055795 | -3.49975180557948 |
39 | 98.3 | 93.1002481858704 | 5.19975181412957 |
40 | 105 | 98.2996312581572 | 6.70036874184278 |
41 | 95.6 | 104.999524841491 | -9.3995248414914 |
42 | 94.3 | 95.6006665699124 | -1.30066656991241 |
43 | 95.3 | 94.3000922371307 | 0.99990776286927 |
44 | 97.1 | 95.2999290912635 | 1.80007090873646 |
45 | 98.1 | 97.099872347472 | 1.00012765252799 |
46 | 104.4 | 98.09992907567 | 6.30007092433002 |
47 | 107.8 | 104.399553228722 | 3.4004467712778 |
48 | 114.3 | 107.799758856374 | 6.50024114362637 |
49 | 118.7 | 114.299539033596 | 4.40046096640445 |
50 | 124.1 | 118.699687940089 | 5.4003120599105 |
51 | 134.2 | 124.099617035372 | 10.1003829646283 |
52 | 142.4 | 134.199283728539 | 8.20071627146069 |
53 | 133.8 | 142.39941844393 | -8.59941844392998 |
54 | 131 | 133.800609830145 | -2.80060983014522 |
55 | 133.2 | 131.000198606023 | 2.19980139397674 |
56 | 125.9 | 133.199844000474 | -7.29984400047371 |
57 | 126.2 | 125.900517670463 | 0.299482329537071 |
58 | 122.7 | 126.199978762128 | -3.4999787621275 |
59 | 126.6 | 122.700248201965 | 3.89975179803487 |
60 | 124.8 | 126.599723448019 | -1.79972344801909 |
61 | 128 | 124.800127627888 | 3.19987237211228 |
62 | 134.1 | 127.999773080163 | 6.1002269198372 |
63 | 138.8 | 134.099567400715 | 4.7004325992848 |
64 | 134 | 138.799666667518 | -4.79966666751793 |
65 | 124 | 134.000340369694 | -10.0003403696936 |
66 | 110.4 | 124.000709176912 | -13.6007091769123 |
67 | 116.7 | 110.400964498065 | 6.29903550193467 |
68 | 124.7 | 116.699553302149 | 8.00044669785053 |
69 | 126 | 124.699432646102 | 1.30056735389762 |
70 | 122.8 | 125.999907769905 | -3.19990776990521 |
71 | 120.2 | 122.800226922347 | -2.60022692234743 |
72 | 121.2 | 120.200184395814 | 0.999815604186267 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 121.199929097799 | 105.446991374804 | 136.952866820794 |
74 | 121.199929097799 | 98.9227008346363 | 143.477157360962 |
75 | 121.199929097799 | 93.916330521483 | 148.483527674115 |
76 | 121.199929097799 | 89.6957293228792 | 152.704128872719 |
77 | 121.199929097799 | 85.9772878617623 | 156.422570333836 |
78 | 121.199929097799 | 82.6155500328581 | 159.78430816274 |
79 | 121.199929097799 | 79.524106850223 | 162.875751345375 |
80 | 121.199929097799 | 76.6466574761094 | 165.753200719489 |
81 | 121.199929097799 | 73.9440949142768 | 168.455763281321 |
82 | 121.199929097799 | 71.3879454335737 | 171.011912762024 |
83 | 121.199929097799 | 68.9567135693732 | 173.443144626225 |
84 | 121.199929097799 | 66.633699422898 | 175.7661587727 |