| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.543338663817181 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 5040 | 5731 | -691 |
| 3 | 6102 | 5355.55298330233 | 746.447016697673 |
| 4 | 4904 | 5761.12650796516 | -857.126507965162 |
| 5 | 5369 | 5295.41653640508 | 73.5834635949159 |
| 6 | 5578 | 5335.39727719379 | 242.602722806214 |
| 7 | 4619 | 5467.21271644172 | -848.212716441724 |
| 8 | 4731 | 5006.34595245754 | -275.345952457536 |
| 9 | 5011 | 4856.73985056179 | 154.260149438211 |
| 10 | 5227 | 4940.55535403779 | 286.444645962215 |
| 11 | 4146 | 5096.19180523248 | -950.191805232481 |
| 12 | 4625 | 4579.91585940743 | 45.0841405925703 |
| 13 | 4736 | 4604.41181611634 | 131.588183883658 |
| 14 | 4219 | 4675.90876412182 | -456.908764121818 |
| 15 | 5116 | 4427.65256673751 | 688.34743326249 |
| 16 | 4205 | 4801.65834136834 | -596.658341368337 |
| 17 | 4121 | 4477.47079541389 | -356.470795413889 |
| 18 | 5103 | 4283.78642974386 | 819.213570256141 |
| 19 | 4300 | 4728.89683638773 | -428.896836387733 |
| 20 | 4578 | 4495.86060238941 | 82.1393976105937 |
| 21 | 3809 | 4540.49011293389 | -731.490112933894 |
| 22 | 5657 | 4143.04325237691 | 1513.95674762309 |
| 23 | 4249 | 4965.63448870745 | -716.634488707447 |
| 24 | 3830 | 4576.25926316783 | -746.259263167834 |
| 25 | 4736 | 4170.78775225703 | 565.212247742971 |
| 26 | 4840 | 4477.8894197188 | 362.1105802812 |
| 27 | 4413 | 4674.63809856285 | -261.638098562851 |
| 28 | 4571 | 4532.48000368604 | 38.5199963139567 |
| 29 | 4106 | 4553.40940701351 | -447.409407013512 |
| 30 | 4801 | 4310.31457762755 | 490.685422372448 |
| 31 | 3956 | 4576.92293937397 | -620.922939373967 |
| 32 | 3829 | 4239.55149916108 | -410.551499161079 |
| 33 | 4453 | 4016.48299617876 | 436.517003821242 |
| 34 | 4027 | 4253.65956176847 | -226.659561768471 |
| 35 | 4121 | 4130.5066583358 | -9.50665833580206 |
| 36 | 4798 | 4125.34132329826 | 672.658676701739 |
| 37 | 3233 | 4490.82278990242 | -1257.82278990242 |
| 38 | 3554 | 3807.39903591804 | -253.399035918038 |
| 39 | 3952 | 3669.71754232977 | 282.282457670231 |
| 40 | 3951 | 3823.09251569934 | 127.907484300657 |
| 41 | 3685 | 3892.58959731148 | -207.589597311479 |
| 42 | 4312 | 3779.79814288591 | 532.201857114087 |
| 43 | 3867 | 4068.9639888113 | -201.963988811304 |
| 44 | 4140 | 3959.22914499138 | 180.770855008618 |
| 45 | 4114 | 4057.44893980885 | 56.551060191146 |
| 46 | 3818 | 4088.17531729056 | -270.175317290556 |
| 47 | 3377 | 3941.37862139752 | -564.378621397523 |
| 48 | 3453 | 3634.72989536041 | -181.72989536041 |
| 49 | 3502 | 3535.98901683965 | -33.9890168396487 |
| 50 | 4017 | 3517.52146984553 | 499.478530154466 |
| 51 | 5410 | 3788.90746702503 | 1621.09253297497 |
| 52 | 5184 | 4669.70971781566 | 514.290282184339 |
| 53 | 5529 | 4949.14351255186 | 579.856487448139 |
| 54 | 6434 | 5264.20196164766 | 1169.79803835234 |
| 55 | 4962 | 5899.79846474198 | -937.798464741979 |
| 56 | 2980 | 5390.25629997927 | -2410.25629997927 |
| 57 | 2937 | 4080.67086249159 | -1143.67086249159 |
| 58 | 2969 | 3459.27026421877 | -490.270264218766 |
| 59 | 2731 | 3192.88747394885 | -461.887473948845 |
| 60 | 3163 | 2941.92615101959 | 221.073848980413 |
| 61 | 3145 | 3062.04412072953 | 82.9558792704743 |
| 62 | 3173 | 3107.11725732812 | 65.8827426718753 |
| 63 | 3723 | 3142.91389870007 | 580.086101299928 |
| 64 | 3224 | 3458.09710587929 | -234.097105879293 |
| 65 | 4114 | 3330.90309716737 | 783.096902832631 |
| 66 | 3446 | 3756.38992199182 | -310.389921991823 |
| 67 | 2955 | 3587.74307651447 | -632.743076514467 |
| 68 | 3879 | 3243.94929878152 | 635.050701218476 |
| 69 | 4278 | 3588.99689823773 | 689.003101762265 |
| 70 | 4177 | 3963.35892291514 | 213.641077084863 |
| 71 | 3698 | 4079.43838027489 | -381.43838027489 |
| 72 | 4449 | 3872.18816040774 | 576.811839592259 |
| 73 | 4162 | 4185.59233460573 | -23.5923346057298 |
| 74 | 3961 | 4172.77370704472 | -211.773707044725 |
| 75 | 5246 | 4057.70886402743 | 1188.29113597257 |
| 76 | 5170 | 4703.35338207257 | 466.646617927432 |
| 77 | 3682 | 4956.90053193207 | -1274.90053193207 |
| 78 | 3495 | 4264.19778041228 | -769.197780412283 |
| 79 | 3770 | 3846.26288619193 | -76.2628861919316 |
| 80 | 3291 | 3804.82631150957 | -513.826311509566 |
| 81 | 3580 | 3525.64460997985 | 54.3553900201528 |
| 82 | 3898 | 3555.17799496466 | 342.822005035341 |
| 83 | 3477 | 3741.44644510769 | -264.446445107688 |
| 84 | 3054 | 3597.76246697167 | -543.762466971673 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 3302.31529473335 | 2021.26400253937 | 4583.36658692733 |
| 86 | 3302.31529473335 | 1844.38160831775 | 4760.24898114895 |
| 87 | 3302.31529473335 | 1686.75073250164 | 4917.87985696506 |
| 88 | 3302.31529473335 | 1543.18850126664 | 5061.44208820006 |
| 89 | 3302.31529473335 | 1410.48937878707 | 5194.14121067963 |
| 90 | 3302.31529473335 | 1286.50689188364 | 5318.12369758306 |
| 91 | 3302.31529473335 | 1169.72022352244 | 5434.91036594426 |
| 92 | 3302.31529473335 | 1059.00524961997 | 5545.62533984673 |
| 93 | 3302.31529473335 | 953.503216413736 | 5651.12737305296 |
| 94 | 3302.31529473335 | 852.540529573574 | 5752.09005989313 |
| 95 | 3302.31529473335 | 755.577259369844 | 5849.05333009686 |
| 96 | 3302.31529473335 | 662.172714962193 | 5942.45787450451 |
