Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.919052484331655 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 28.75 | 28.6772349186051 | 0.0727650813948664 |
14 | 28.89 | 28.884845102912 | 0.00515489708795869 |
15 | 28.82 | 28.8149762348871 | 0.00502376511286329 |
16 | 29.12 | 29.1103559480901 | 0.00964405190993389 |
17 | 29.21 | 29.1832821709114 | 0.0267178290886143 |
18 | 29.3 | 29.2647646109813 | 0.0352353890187125 |
19 | 29.32 | 29.4326626949262 | -0.112662694926183 |
20 | 29.52 | 29.3934380957425 | 0.126561904257489 |
21 | 29.64 | 29.6281174898602 | 0.0118825101398414 |
22 | 29.54 | 29.4316890954108 | 0.10831090458915 |
23 | 29.54 | 29.2473793753861 | 0.292620624613885 |
24 | 29.34 | 29.4503654041196 | -0.110365404119566 |
25 | 29.34 | 29.3539394188477 | -0.0139394188476842 |
26 | 29.54 | 29.4787560191416 | 0.0612439808584178 |
27 | 29.94 | 29.4583092447011 | 0.48169075529891 |
28 | 30.17 | 30.2023018137014 | -0.0323018137014124 |
29 | 30.23 | 30.2396868978399 | -0.00968689783994847 |
30 | 30.34 | 30.2896982110697 | 0.0503017889303017 |
31 | 30.34 | 30.46308188642 | -0.123081886419996 |
32 | 30.36 | 30.4358232186293 | -0.0758232186293206 |
33 | 30.3 | 30.4777533727308 | -0.177753372730752 |
34 | 30.28 | 30.1098101552272 | 0.1701898447728 |
35 | 29.89 | 29.9899598773729 | -0.0999598773729353 |
36 | 29.58 | 29.7980527729211 | -0.218052772921133 |
37 | 29.68 | 29.6103970278257 | 0.0696029721743017 |
38 | 29.73 | 29.8194771281892 | -0.0894771281892162 |
39 | 30.07 | 29.6935428561094 | 0.376457143890612 |
40 | 30.32 | 30.3000068392036 | 0.0199931607964352 |
41 | 30.55 | 30.3875228035124 | 0.162477196487636 |
42 | 30.62 | 30.6010517966117 | 0.0189482033882769 |
43 | 30.67 | 30.7323978007323 | -0.0623978007323096 |
44 | 30.79 | 30.7654861001171 | 0.0245138998829475 |
45 | 30.8 | 30.8924689484682 | -0.0924689484682162 |
46 | 30.5 | 30.6277023733696 | -0.127702373369612 |
47 | 30.07 | 30.209758830207 | -0.139758830206993 |
48 | 29.41 | 29.9707644405456 | -0.560764440545562 |
49 | 29.42 | 29.4913446845028 | -0.0713446845027761 |
50 | 29.99 | 29.557030035668 | 0.432969964331999 |
51 | 30.14 | 29.9484165115705 | 0.191583488429465 |
52 | 30.41 | 30.3564989220171 | 0.0535010779829221 |
53 | 30.78 | 30.4864500046373 | 0.293549995362685 |
54 | 30.88 | 30.8090398245115 | 0.0709601754884588 |
55 | 30.92 | 30.9823147232159 | -0.0623147232158487 |
56 | 30.93 | 31.0231531378665 | -0.0931531378664658 |
57 | 31.62 | 31.0328601882455 | 0.587139811754533 |
58 | 31.48 | 31.3847040109277 | 0.0952959890723086 |
59 | 31.3 | 31.1604244871951 | 0.139575512804893 |
60 | 31.11 | 31.1365709235283 | -0.0265709235282579 |
61 | 31.16 | 31.1909148026139 | -0.0309148026139354 |
62 | 31.22 | 31.3430801032547 | -0.123080103254722 |
63 | 31.66 | 31.2018795431326 | 0.458120456867448 |
64 | 32.11 | 31.8536025763935 | 0.256397423606497 |
65 | 32.27 | 32.1936446904839 | 0.0763553095161313 |
66 | 32.36 | 32.2992833181467 | 0.0607166818533003 |
67 | 32.42 | 32.4560149291521 | -0.0360149291520884 |
68 | 32.52 | 32.5221565302044 | -0.00215653020444506 |
69 | 32.41 | 32.6763810656455 | -0.26638106564554 |
70 | 31.87 | 32.1975932366431 | -0.327593236643143 |
71 | 31.04 | 31.5838472815977 | -0.543847281597667 |
72 | 30.58 | 30.9197227224316 | -0.339722722431635 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 30.6849685335958 | 30.2689171338012 | 31.1010199333904 |
74 | 30.855719434815 | 30.2893751941334 | 31.4220636754966 |
75 | 30.8742095624053 | 30.1908928661831 | 31.5575262586274 |
76 | 31.0836033038739 | 30.297132872229 | 31.8700737355189 |
77 | 31.171196701272 | 30.295236980089 | 32.0471564224549 |
78 | 31.2049173031453 | 30.2488069874872 | 32.1610276188033 |
79 | 31.2954211437382 | 30.2637507535241 | 32.3270915339522 |
80 | 31.3945770184988 | 30.2919556963513 | 32.4971983406463 |
81 | 31.5252846782759 | 30.3546701870531 | 32.6958991694988 |
82 | 31.2931959944026 | 30.0704480302226 | 32.5159439585826 |
83 | 30.9686663101673 | 29.7001426047665 | 32.2371900155682 |
84 | 30.8209952084917 | 10.5704301445341 | 51.0715602724494 |