| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0187104010472294 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 116615 | 120106 | -3491 |
| 4 | 113719 | 113939.681989944 | -220.681989944118 |
| 5 | 110737 | 111039.552941408 | -302.552941408372 |
| 6 | 112093 | 108051.892054537 | 4041.1079454634 |
| 7 | 143565 | 109483.502804871 | 34081.4971951286 |
| 8 | 149946 | 141593.181285682 | 8352.81871431775 |
| 9 | 149147 | 148130.465873702 | 1016.53412629807 |
| 10 | 134339 | 147350.485634883 | -13011.4856348832 |
| 11 | 122683 | 132299.035520434 | -9616.03552043423 |
| 12 | 115614 | 120463.115639363 | -4849.11563936251 |
| 13 | 116566 | 113303.386741026 | 3262.61325897436 |
| 14 | 111272 | 114316.431543563 | -3044.43154356306 |
| 15 | 104609 | 108965.469008422 | -4356.46900842217 |
| 16 | 101802 | 102220.957726125 | -418.957726124761 |
| 17 | 94542 | 99406.1188590471 | -4864.11885904713 |
| 18 | 93051 | 92055.109244453 | 995.890755547036 |
| 19 | 124129 | 90582.7427598885 | 33546.2572401115 |
| 20 | 130374 | 122288.406686484 | 8085.59331351552 |
| 21 | 123946 | 128684.691380085 | -4738.69138008516 |
| 22 | 114971 | 122168.028563925 | -7197.02856392472 |
| 23 | 105531 | 113058.369273145 | -7527.36927314532 |
| 24 | 104919 | 103477.529175214 | 1441.47082478582 |
| 25 | 104782 | 102892.499672444 | 1889.5003275562 |
| 26 | 101281 | 102790.852981351 | -1509.85298135124 |
| 27 | 94545 | 99261.6030265478 | -4716.6030265478 |
| 28 | 93248 | 92437.3534923405 | 810.646507659476 |
| 29 | 84031 | 91155.5210136064 | -7124.52101360637 |
| 30 | 87486 | 81805.2183681724 | 5680.78163182762 |
| 31 | 115867 | 85366.5080707656 | 30500.4919292344 |
| 32 | 120327 | 114318.184506899 | 6008.81549310063 |
| 33 | 117008 | 118890.611854594 | -1882.61185459408 |
| 34 | 108811 | 115536.387431778 | -6725.38743177836 |
| 35 | 104519 | 107213.552735732 | -2694.55273573179 |
| 36 | 106758 | 102871.136573403 | 3886.86342659665 |
| 37 | 109337 | 105182.861346931 | 4154.13865306923 |
| 38 | 109078 | 107839.586947135 | 1238.4130528645 |
| 39 | 108293 | 107603.758152017 | 689.241847983285 |
| 40 | 106534 | 106831.654143411 | -297.654143411011 |
| 41 | 99197 | 105067.084915014 | -5870.08491501442 |
| 42 | 103493 | 97620.2532720732 | 5872.74672792679 |
| 43 | 130676 | 102026.134718602 | 28649.8652813985 |
| 44 | 137448 | 129745.185187966 | 7702.81481203441 |
| 45 | 134704 | 136661.307942291 | -1957.30794229129 |
| 46 | 123725 | 133880.685925718 | -10155.6859257181 |
| 47 | 118277 | 122711.668969138 | -4434.66896913821 |
| 48 | 121225 | 117180.694534214 | 4044.30546578608 |
| 49 | 120528 | 120204.365111436 | 323.634888563713 |
| 50 | 118240 | 119513.420449994 | -1273.42044999418 |
| 51 | 112514 | 117201.594242673 | -4687.59424267305 |
| 52 | 107304 | 111387.887474446 | -4083.88747444596 |
| 53 | 100001 | 106101.476301967 | -6100.47630196731 |
| 54 | 102082 | 98684.3339437784 | 3397.66605622161 |
| 55 | 130455 | 100828.905638315 | 29626.0943616851 |
| 56 | 135574 | 129756.221745285 | 5817.77825471495 |
| 57 | 132540 | 134984.074709635 | -2444.07470963462 |
| 58 | 119920 | 131904.345091628 | -11984.345091628 |
| 59 | 112454 | 119060.113188675 | -6606.1131886752 |
| 60 | 109415 | 111470.510161552 | -2055.51016155169 |
| 61 | 109843 | 108393.050742072 | 1449.94925792758 |
| 62 | 106365 | 108848.179874186 | -2483.17987418637 |
| 63 | 102304 | 105323.718582868 | -3019.71858286794 |
| 64 | 97968 | 101206.218437133 | -3238.2184371327 |
| 65 | 92462 | 96809.6300714954 | -4347.63007149541 |
| 66 | 92286 | 91222.2841692527 | 1063.71583074726 |
| 67 | 120092 | 91066.1867190463 | 29025.8132809537 |
| 68 | 126656 | 119415.271326255 | 7240.72867374505 |
| 69 | 124144 | 126114.748263615 | -1970.74826361489 |
| 70 | 114045 | 123565.87477324 | -9520.87477323953 |
| 71 | 108120 | 113288.735387912 | -5168.73538791177 |
| 72 | 105698 | 107267.026275897 | -1569.02627589693 |
| 73 | 111203 | 104815.669165021 | 6387.33083497874 |
| 74 | 110030 | 110440.178686565 | -410.17868656505 |
| 75 | 104009 | 109259.504078838 | -5250.50407883839 |
| 76 | 99772 | 103140.265041823 | -3368.26504182321 |
| 77 | 96301 | 98840.2434520573 | -2539.24345205733 |
| 78 | 97680 | 95321.7331887128 | 2358.26681128721 |
| 79 | 121563 | 96744.8573065283 | 24818.1426934717 |
| 80 | 134210 | 121092.214709571 | 13117.7852904294 |
| 81 | 133111 | 133984.653733206 | -873.653733205952 |
| 82 | 124527 | 132869.307321481 | -8342.30732148126 |
| 83 | 117589 | 124129.219405837 | -6540.2194058371 |
| 84 | 115699 | 117068.849277817 | -1369.84927781702 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 115153.218848455 | 95306.3228946517 | 135000.114802258 |
| 86 | 114607.43769691 | 86275.8920123762 | 142938.983381443 |
| 87 | 114061.656545364 | 79038.7012526267 | 149084.611838102 |
| 88 | 113515.875393819 | 72699.6063273803 | 154332.144460258 |
| 89 | 112970.094242274 | 66915.4143292481 | 159024.7741553 |
| 90 | 112424.313090729 | 61511.8357063484 | 163336.790475109 |
| 91 | 111878.531939184 | 56386.3338669209 | 167370.730011446 |
| 92 | 111332.750787638 | 51472.7439873065 | 171192.75758797 |
| 93 | 110786.969636093 | 46725.551864047 | 174848.38740814 |
| 94 | 110241.188484548 | 42111.9411880031 | 178370.435781093 |
| 95 | 109695.407333003 | 37607.381443545 | 181783.433222461 |
| 96 | 109149.626181458 | 33193.0039743275 | 185106.248388588 |
