Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.790910936880998 |
beta | 0.24611000085311 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.01 |
4 | 1.27 | 1.24985562028232 | 0.020144379717685 |
5 | 1.27 | 1.26165566692785 | 0.00834433307215243 |
6 | 1.28 | 1.26574716116481 | 0.014252838835191 |
7 | 1.28 | 1.2772860878645 | 0.00271391213550487 |
8 | 1.28 | 1.28022701719654 | -0.000227017196536616 |
9 | 1.29 | 1.28079774421021 | 0.00920225578978862 |
10 | 1.29 | 1.29061741548798 | -0.000617415487976336 |
11 | 1.29 | 1.29255042075703 | -0.00255042075702927 |
12 | 1.29 | 1.29245814883398 | -0.00245814883398099 |
13 | 1.3 | 1.2919603744308 | 0.00803962556919768 |
14 | 1.31 | 1.3013303265071 | 0.00866967349289927 |
15 | 1.31 | 1.31288615178406 | -0.00288615178405949 |
16 | 1.32 | 1.31474055587022 | 0.00525944412978485 |
17 | 1.32 | 1.3240611573918 | -0.00406115739180324 |
18 | 1.32 | 1.3252194845132 | -0.00521948451319698 |
19 | 1.32 | 1.32444569968901 | -0.00444569968901343 |
20 | 1.32 | 1.32341854944879 | -0.00341854944878617 |
21 | 1.32 | 1.32253835918633 | -0.00253835918633283 |
22 | 1.33 | 1.32186022664313 | 0.00813977335686933 |
23 | 1.32 | 1.33121196168107 | -0.0112119616810724 |
24 | 1.33 | 1.32307577725248 | 0.00692422274751814 |
25 | 1.34 | 1.33063150695631 | 0.00936849304368725 |
26 | 1.35 | 1.34194402416534 | 0.00805597583465922 |
27 | 1.35 | 1.35378656164701 | -0.00378656164701385 |
28 | 1.35 | 1.35552564835695 | -0.00552564835695124 |
29 | 1.35 | 1.35481369888472 | -0.00481369888471517 |
30 | 1.35 | 1.35372784629523 | -0.00372784629523459 |
31 | 1.35 | 1.35277517704486 | -0.0027751770448603 |
32 | 1.35 | 1.35203579308336 | -0.00203579308336432 |
33 | 1.36 | 1.35148492663813 | 0.00851507336187085 |
34 | 1.35 | 1.36093632418082 | -0.0109363241808191 |
35 | 1.36 | 1.35287463123222 | 0.00712536876778413 |
36 | 1.36 | 1.36048508958217 | -0.000485089582173526 |
37 | 1.37 | 1.3619819299719 | 0.00801807002810073 |
38 | 1.38 | 1.37176473837693 | 0.0082352616230692 |
39 | 1.38 | 1.38332232865231 | -0.00332232865230853 |
40 | 1.38 | 1.3850921994769 | -0.00509219947690376 |
41 | 1.39 | 1.38447105792391 | 0.00552894207609378 |
42 | 1.39 | 1.39332650799646 | -0.00332650799646106 |
43 | 1.39 | 1.39453057734373 | -0.00453057734373141 |
44 | 1.39 | 1.39390045325108 | -0.00390045325107691 |
45 | 1.39 | 1.39300947371281 | -0.00300947371281146 |
46 | 1.4 | 1.39223738229331 | 0.00776261770669207 |
47 | 1.39 | 1.40149605779892 | -0.011496057798916 |
48 | 1.39 | 1.39328511602051 | -0.00328511602050896 |
49 | 1.4 | 1.39092884647813 | 0.00907115352186794 |
50 | 1.4 | 1.40011099558871 | -0.000110995588710194 |
51 | 1.4 | 1.40200927713118 | -0.00200927713118237 |
52 | 1.41 | 1.40201507905402 | 0.00798492094597636 |
53 | 1.41 | 1.41147967511793 | -0.0014796751179269 |
54 | 1.42 | 1.41317059826518 | 0.00682940173482049 |
55 | 1.42 | 1.42276261167161 | -0.00276261167160863 |
56 | 1.43 | 1.42423045139133 | 0.0057695486086724 |
57 | 1.43 | 1.43356951892522 | -0.00356951892522028 |
58 | 1.44 | 1.4348274050519 | 0.0051725949481034 |
59 | 1.43 | 1.44400637590421 | -0.0140063759042062 |
60 | 1.43 | 1.43529013259568 | -0.00529013259568289 |
61 | 1.43 | 1.43243793136525 | -0.00243793136524806 |
62 | 1.44 | 1.43136702128127 | 0.00863297871873381 |
63 | 1.44 | 1.44073263379314 | -0.000732633793139259 |
64 | 1.44 | 1.44254827297139 | -0.00254827297138727 |
65 | 1.43 | 1.44243187915119 | -0.0124318791511899 |
66 | 1.44 | 1.43207855426325 | 0.00792144573675468 |
67 | 1.45 | 1.4393648146888 | 0.0106351853111986 |
68 | 1.45 | 1.45086755185117 | -0.000867551851171822 |
69 | 1.48 | 1.45310377847312 | 0.026896221526878 |
70 | 1.49 | 1.48253405598227 | 0.00746594401773049 |
71 | 1.49 | 1.49804996865381 | -0.00804996865381247 |
72 | 1.51 | 1.49972724111394 | 0.0102727588860603 |
73 | 1.52 | 1.5178957629072 | 0.00210423709280483 |
74 | 1.53 | 1.53001330352259 | -1.33035225888811e-05 |
75 | 1.53 | 1.54045346856079 | -0.0104534685607873 |
76 | 1.54 | 1.54060161382368 | -0.000601613823676406 |
77 | 1.54 | 1.54842459395936 | -0.00842459395935902 |
78 | 1.54 | 1.54842043713835 | -0.00842043713835339 |
79 | 1.57 | 1.54678052071391 | 0.0232194792860854 |
80 | 1.59 | 1.57468465721519 | 0.0153153427848074 |
81 | 1.58 | 1.59931847389848 | -0.0193184738984797 |
82 | 1.6 | 1.59279966415346 | 0.00720033584654245 |
83 | 1.62 | 1.60865642429946 | 0.0113435757005402 |
84 | 1.62 | 1.62999815755004 | -0.00999815755003719 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 1.63251432828213 | 1.61600091158277 | 1.64902774498148 |
86 | 1.6429381511692 | 1.61975262894725 | 1.66612367339115 |
87 | 1.65336197405627 | 1.6230733087741 | 1.68365063933845 |
88 | 1.66378579694335 | 1.6259326399619 | 1.7016389539248 |
89 | 1.67420961983042 | 1.62833362024318 | 1.72008561941766 |
90 | 1.6846334427175 | 1.63028912443732 | 1.73897776099767 |
91 | 1.69505726560457 | 1.6318147291449 | 1.75829980206424 |
92 | 1.70548108849164 | 1.63292619923917 | 1.77803597774411 |
93 | 1.71590491137872 | 1.63363857749992 | 1.79817124525751 |
94 | 1.72632873426579 | 1.63396588580997 | 1.81869158272161 |
95 | 1.73675255715286 | 1.63392107189543 | 1.83958404241029 |
96 | 1.74717638003994 | 1.63351605452241 | 1.86083670555746 |