Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.761122450067448 |
beta | 0.0552770057358704 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 9.35 | 9.33 | 0.0199999999999978 |
4 | 9.33 | 9.37606390040211 | -0.0460639004021122 |
5 | 9.37 | 9.36990705639326 | 9.29436067380607e-05 |
6 | 9.42 | 9.39888513296021 | 0.0211148670397883 |
7 | 9.45 | 9.44475182411803 | 0.00524817588196846 |
8 | 9.38 | 9.47876282467471 | -0.0987628246747132 |
9 | 9.4 | 9.42945351179544 | -0.0294535117954435 |
10 | 9.43 | 9.43165788800945 | -0.00165788800945244 |
11 | 9.45 | 9.45494838589121 | -0.00494838589121471 |
12 | 9.49 | 9.47552622065128 | 0.014473779348716 |
13 | 9.47 | 9.51149565049975 | -0.0414956504997495 |
14 | 9.48 | 9.50311966211115 | -0.0231196621111476 |
15 | 9.52 | 9.50775734742386 | 0.0122426525761394 |
16 | 9.53 | 9.53982516418938 | -0.00982516418937962 |
17 | 9.53 | 9.55468330028219 | -0.0246833002821933 |
18 | 9.54 | 9.55719408554871 | -0.0171940855487147 |
19 | 9.57 | 9.56468168091377 | 0.00531831908622671 |
20 | 9.61 | 9.58952772820373 | 0.0204722717962689 |
21 | 9.61 | 9.62676911019755 | -0.0167691101975489 |
22 | 9.63 | 9.63495972072107 | -0.00495972072106987 |
23 | 9.64 | 9.65193005449933 | -0.0119300544993255 |
24 | 9.6 | 9.66309318270101 | -0.0630931827010066 |
25 | 9.64 | 9.63266041306459 | 0.00733958693540693 |
26 | 9.66 | 9.65614440090428 | 0.00385559909572386 |
27 | 9.67 | 9.67713886234641 | -0.00713886234640526 |
28 | 9.7 | 9.68946484207247 | 0.0105351579275297 |
29 | 9.72 | 9.71568615658174 | 0.00431384341826124 |
30 | 9.73 | 9.73735378342842 | -0.00735378342842274 |
31 | 9.77 | 9.74983152497475 | 0.0201684750252511 |
32 | 9.72 | 9.78410561488479 | -0.0641056148847863 |
33 | 9.68 | 9.75153971503322 | -0.071539715033218 |
34 | 9.62 | 9.71030569499139 | -0.0903056949913896 |
35 | 9.79 | 9.65098907362852 | 0.139010926371483 |
36 | 9.77 | 9.77205902789437 | -0.00205902789436685 |
37 | 9.79 | 9.78567084434319 | 0.0043291556568068 |
38 | 9.77 | 9.80432698941254 | -0.0343269894125449 |
39 | 9.78 | 9.7921168499703 | -0.0121168499702957 |
40 | 9.81 | 9.79630155925765 | 0.0136984407423473 |
41 | 9.74 | 9.82071119446897 | -0.0807111944689662 |
42 | 9.7 | 9.76986780943612 | -0.0698678094361185 |
43 | 9.78 | 9.72433804988059 | 0.0556619501194131 |
44 | 9.85 | 9.77669364976919 | 0.0733063502308049 |
45 | 9.83 | 9.84556298525488 | -0.0155629852548778 |
46 | 9.9 | 9.84613709959269 | 0.0538629004073066 |
47 | 9.93 | 9.90181896477366 | 0.0281810352263445 |
48 | 9.85 | 9.93913943438409 | -0.0891394343840854 |
49 | 9.95 | 9.88341433562528 | 0.0665856643747169 |
50 | 9.97 | 9.94901653559871 | 0.0209834644012883 |
51 | 10.02 | 9.98079270567557 | 0.0392072943244344 |
52 | 9.97 | 10.0280889934696 | -0.0580889934696032 |
53 | 9.95 | 9.99888693906918 | -0.0488869390691846 |
54 | 9.95 | 9.97463197569173 | -0.0246319756917313 |
55 | 9.98 | 9.96780167894395 | 0.0121983210560472 |
56 | 10 | 9.98951696261054 | 0.0104830373894647 |
57 | 10.04 | 10.010367753695 | 0.0296322463049705 |
58 | 10.05 | 10.0470401423442 | 0.00295985765580475 |
59 | 10.06 | 10.0635361060141 | -0.00353610601408505 |
60 | 10.09 | 10.0749390728321 | 0.0150609271679407 |
61 | 10.14 | 10.1011303110226 | 0.0388696889773676 |
62 | 10.13 | 10.1470782800465 | -0.0170782800465279 |
63 | 10.12 | 10.1497244666773 | -0.0297244666772727 |
64 | 10.1 | 10.1414947720495 | -0.0414947720494894 |
65 | 10.12 | 10.1225606420555 | -0.00256064205549578 |
66 | 10.06 | 10.1331524196816 | -0.0731524196815521 |
67 | 10.21 | 10.0869375002657 | 0.123062499734258 |
68 | 10.18 | 10.1952437166946 | -0.0152437166946111 |
69 | 10.26 | 10.1976406244773 | 0.0623593755226945 |
70 | 10.39 | 10.2617266071355 | 0.128273392864545 |
71 | 10.41 | 10.3813780194719 | 0.0286219805280616 |
72 | 10.46 | 10.4263867049786 | 0.0336132950214107 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 10.4766085897105 | 10.3839510285125 | 10.5692661509085 |
74 | 10.5012466409808 | 10.3824019045196 | 10.620091377442 |
75 | 10.5258846922512 | 10.3835535232042 | 10.6682158612981 |
76 | 10.5505227435215 | 10.3861509433948 | 10.7148945436483 |
77 | 10.5751607947919 | 10.389596125458 | 10.7607254641258 |
78 | 10.5997988460622 | 10.3935537750834 | 10.806043917041 |
79 | 10.6244368973326 | 10.3978164410458 | 10.8510573536193 |
80 | 10.6490749486029 | 10.4022469794519 | 10.895902917754 |
81 | 10.6737129998733 | 10.4067503266727 | 10.9406756730739 |
82 | 10.6983510511436 | 10.4112582213381 | 10.9854438809491 |
83 | 10.722989102414 | 10.4157203070219 | 11.030257897806 |
84 | 10.7476271536843 | 10.4200986478916 | 11.0751556594771 |