Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.917860981142453 |
beta | 0.00174783084819955 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 51.82 | 51.3734375 | 0.446562500000006 |
14 | 51.84 | 51.8027293811279 | 0.0372706188721281 |
15 | 51.9 | 51.8922413399803 | 0.00775866001972503 |
16 | 51.94 | 51.9230112036107 | 0.0169887963892563 |
17 | 52.22 | 52.2072803038094 | 0.0127196961906151 |
18 | 52.27 | 52.2747347026172 | -0.00473470261723463 |
19 | 52.27 | 52.2515774607555 | 0.0184225392444617 |
20 | 52.28 | 52.2834549022781 | -0.00345490227807943 |
21 | 52.53 | 52.4469130179452 | 0.0830869820548372 |
22 | 52.73 | 52.5428545127412 | 0.187145487258825 |
23 | 52.72 | 53.0275241469797 | -0.307524146979674 |
24 | 52.67 | 52.796829141609 | -0.126829141608951 |
25 | 52.67 | 52.7167971024509 | -0.0467971024508742 |
26 | 52.65 | 52.6594325684718 | -0.0094325684717731 |
27 | 52.69 | 52.7033764334951 | -0.0133764334950754 |
28 | 52.73 | 52.715194490368 | 0.0148055096319979 |
29 | 52.84 | 52.9967945911348 | -0.156794591134819 |
30 | 52.83 | 52.9066384206996 | -0.076638420699588 |
31 | 52.83 | 52.8186839900976 | 0.0113160099023872 |
32 | 52.84 | 52.841528548643 | -0.00152854864302299 |
33 | 52.82 | 53.013153259599 | -0.193153259599022 |
34 | 53.09 | 52.8629387209081 | 0.227061279091878 |
35 | 53.4 | 53.3425247023511 | 0.0574752976488782 |
36 | 53.43 | 53.4611869896648 | -0.031186989664846 |
37 | 53.43 | 53.4751647723974 | -0.045164772397392 |
38 | 53.42 | 53.42202006463 | -0.00202006463003102 |
39 | 53.6 | 53.4721080121109 | 0.12789198788915 |
40 | 53.69 | 53.6157966896982 | 0.0742033103017761 |
41 | 54.05 | 53.9378069517095 | 0.112193048290536 |
42 | 54.04 | 54.1015458183178 | -0.0615458183177537 |
43 | 54.04 | 54.0351108309351 | 0.00488916906488157 |
44 | 54.08 | 54.051433135002 | 0.0285668649980195 |
45 | 54.05 | 54.2354213985394 | -0.185421398539376 |
46 | 54.39 | 54.12731205974 | 0.262687940259994 |
47 | 54.38 | 54.6262183082572 | -0.246218308257227 |
48 | 54.46 | 54.4589118169785 | 0.00108818302152969 |
49 | 54.46 | 54.5014797437545 | -0.0414797437545147 |
50 | 54.69 | 54.4553812994574 | 0.234618700542555 |
51 | 54.91 | 54.7338412716104 | 0.176158728389638 |
52 | 55.52 | 54.91799929133 | 0.602000708669955 |
53 | 56.01 | 55.7289984779802 | 0.281001522019842 |
54 | 56.07 | 56.0351039764439 | 0.0348960235561151 |
55 | 56.07 | 56.0644954762645 | 0.00550452373551735 |
56 | 56.09 | 56.0851778191945 | 0.00482218080548336 |
57 | 56.29 | 56.2316072509134 | 0.0583927490865577 |
58 | 56.45 | 56.386296082309 | 0.063703917691015 |
59 | 56.87 | 56.6626457934547 | 0.207354206545283 |
60 | 56.87 | 56.9345811717864 | -0.0645811717864362 |
61 | 56.87 | 56.9158837648952 | -0.0458837648952226 |
62 | 56.87 | 56.8909209240433 | -0.0209209240433523 |
63 | 56.8 | 56.9321186747215 | -0.132118674721497 |
64 | 56.89 | 56.8698940521543 | 0.0201059478457211 |
65 | 57.01 | 57.1210895855878 | -0.111089585587791 |
66 | 57.03 | 57.0471274739372 | -0.0171274739371867 |
67 | 57.03 | 57.0263033696245 | 0.00369663037555057 |
68 | 57.03 | 57.0452162937375 | -0.0152162937374811 |
69 | 57.06 | 57.1775673013669 | -0.117567301366883 |
70 | 57.25 | 57.1708171116063 | 0.0791828883937029 |
71 | 57.24 | 57.4728300813725 | -0.232830081372477 |
72 | 57.31 | 57.3173512211716 | -0.00735122117164622 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 57.3517608006366 | 57.0547261776678 | 57.6487954236053 |
74 | 57.3700789713342 | 56.9665690147293 | 57.773588927939 |
75 | 57.4204947812917 | 56.9329791210672 | 57.9080104415162 |
76 | 57.4914015032888 | 56.9321307968825 | 58.050672209695 |
77 | 57.7126952310414 | 57.0896724774708 | 58.3357179846119 |
78 | 57.7479230200201 | 57.0668996295415 | 58.4289464104986 |
79 | 57.7440646532024 | 57.0094282139154 | 58.4787010924894 |
80 | 57.75755979109 | 56.9727978372071 | 58.5423217449729 |
81 | 57.8950233362399 | 57.0629925726695 | 58.7270540998104 |
82 | 58.0120861683696 | 57.1351809546365 | 58.8889913821028 |
83 | 58.2154065006633 | 57.2956704159936 | 59.1351425853329 |
84 | 58.2921421064282 | 57.331345155773 | 59.2529390570834 |