Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.665667454192795 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.606758105817834 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.45 | 0.455074786324786 | -0.00507478632478625 |
14 | 0.44 | 0.441178018212745 | -0.00117801821274538 |
15 | 0.42 | 0.419875201809426 | 0.000124798190573538 |
16 | 0.43 | 0.429856294551252 | 0.000143705448747866 |
17 | 0.43 | 0.430266639906159 | -0.000266639906159105 |
18 | 0.47 | 0.469153831713325 | 0.000846168286674776 |
19 | 0.47 | 0.464198450383887 | 0.0058015496161134 |
20 | 0.47 | 0.467125038461903 | 0.00287496153809669 |
21 | 0.47 | 0.469770158771222 | 0.000229841228777727 |
22 | 0.48 | 0.490654508578203 | -0.0106545085782033 |
23 | 0.48 | 0.483876834291961 | -0.00387683429196073 |
24 | 0.48 | 0.451610837193189 | 0.0283891628068108 |
25 | 0.49 | 0.459377131584717 | 0.030622868415283 |
26 | 0.49 | 0.470033624837258 | 0.0199663751627425 |
27 | 0.47 | 0.463070230952231 | 0.00692976904776921 |
28 | 0.5 | 0.477585006827572 | 0.0224149931724283 |
29 | 0.51 | 0.492737381342046 | 0.0172626186579536 |
30 | 0.5 | 0.543518973208863 | -0.0435189732088628 |
31 | 0.49 | 0.510036404698125 | -0.0200364046981252 |
32 | 0.5 | 0.495169822827387 | 0.00483017717261336 |
33 | 0.51 | 0.498579880136768 | 0.0114201198632319 |
34 | 0.51 | 0.524705246110223 | -0.0147052461102226 |
35 | 0.5 | 0.516606039790877 | -0.0166060397908768 |
36 | 0.53 | 0.482412072205103 | 0.0475879277948968 |
37 | 0.5 | 0.503411486856181 | -0.00341148685618131 |
38 | 0.49 | 0.489250652104965 | 0.000749347895035446 |
39 | 0.46 | 0.46685051595357 | -0.00685051595356961 |
40 | 0.46 | 0.475333521399197 | -0.0153335213991973 |
41 | 0.47 | 0.464312732869262 | 0.00568726713073847 |
42 | 0.49 | 0.495058898090532 | -0.00505889809053206 |
43 | 0.5 | 0.491941599819577 | 0.00805840018042281 |
44 | 0.5 | 0.500821224677656 | -0.000821224677655885 |
45 | 0.51 | 0.501806156771771 | 0.00819384322822891 |
46 | 0.5 | 0.520484130239915 | -0.020484130239915 |
47 | 0.52 | 0.508152515762438 | 0.0118474842375617 |
48 | 0.5 | 0.505921456007783 | -0.00592145600778315 |
49 | 0.48 | 0.480955726018224 | -0.00095572601822369 |
50 | 0.47 | 0.469273674034881 | 0.000726325965119179 |
51 | 0.43 | 0.445316512288766 | -0.0153165122887663 |
52 | 0.42 | 0.44644312565598 | -0.0264431256559797 |
53 | 0.45 | 0.432291290909718 | 0.0177087090902817 |
54 | 0.5 | 0.468859782656507 | 0.0311402173434933 |
55 | 0.52 | 0.492500019177105 | 0.0274999808228948 |
56 | 0.52 | 0.51251995986585 | 0.00748004013414971 |
57 | 0.51 | 0.520859561273737 | -0.0108595612737372 |
58 | 0.52 | 0.521036718963838 | -0.00103671896383806 |
59 | 0.52 | 0.528209371647165 | -0.0082093716471654 |
60 | 0.51 | 0.50902252656354 | 0.000977473436459708 |
61 | 0.51 | 0.489656532305384 | 0.0203434676946164 |
62 | 0.51 | 0.492493879730587 | 0.0175061202694132 |
63 | 0.48 | 0.476452047100992 | 0.00354795289900794 |
64 | 0.49 | 0.487878987521373 | 0.00212101247862662 |
65 | 0.47 | 0.501697966147595 | -0.0316979661475955 |
66 | 0.51 | 0.508102744262411 | 0.00189725573758948 |
67 | 0.5 | 0.511538438302187 | -0.0115384383021871 |
68 | 0.51 | 0.50151054912426 | 0.00848945087574038 |
69 | 0.51 | 0.506801729535046 | 0.00319827046495424 |
70 | 0.52 | 0.51832938008348 | 0.00167061991651973 |
71 | 0.51 | 0.525849183123867 | -0.0158491831238667 |
72 | 0.52 | 0.503440398227393 | 0.0165596017726074 |
73 | 0.48 | 0.498375485554306 | -0.0183754855543057 |
74 | 0.49 | 0.474863304530444 | 0.015136695469556 |
75 | 0.47 | 0.454412683300188 | 0.0155873166998116 |
76 | 0.44 | 0.473564368690603 | -0.0335643686906026 |
77 | 0.44 | 0.456768266898601 | -0.0167682668986006 |
78 | 0.47 | 0.479926352423013 | -0.00992635242301304 |
79 | 0.51 | 0.472765904100991 | 0.0372340958990087 |
80 | 0.51 | 0.499267140813698 | 0.0107328591863015 |
81 | 0.52 | 0.504978321650484 | 0.0150216783495162 |
82 | 0.52 | 0.524066532389894 | -0.00406653238989396 |
83 | 0.52 | 0.52421325044691 | -0.00421325044690968 |
84 | 0.52 | 0.516124540351336 | 0.00387545964866365 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 0.495529310823526 | 0.463376282569216 | 0.527682339077835 |
86 | 0.4910473394222 | 0.452422020739756 | 0.529672658104644 |
87 | 0.460612125217964 | 0.416453170738512 | 0.504771079697416 |
88 | 0.459416980311049 | 0.410344469899248 | 0.508489490722849 |
89 | 0.468370826491483 | 0.414833836517128 | 0.521907816465838 |
90 | 0.504078945360379 | 0.446422139058676 | 0.561735751662082 |
91 | 0.513093067332247 | 0.451591804497163 | 0.574594330167331 |
92 | 0.509432764311918 | 0.444313616991732 | 0.574551911632103 |
93 | 0.508869455588269 | 0.440323110936596 | 0.577415800239942 |
94 | 0.5140860089403 | 0.442275846828632 | 0.585896171051967 |
95 | 0.516909922184971 | 0.441977970389346 | 0.591841873980596 |
96 | 0.513266703285626 | 0.435337919018837 | 0.591195487552415 |