Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.904662245210055 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 28.53 | 28.4843845109592 | 0.0456154890408484 |
14 | 28.48 | 28.4747136774233 | 0.00528632257673323 |
15 | 28.68 | 28.6785401852203 | 0.00145981477971446 |
16 | 28.89 | 28.8955535455549 | -0.00555354555487853 |
17 | 29.2 | 29.2184864385603 | -0.0184864385603198 |
18 | 29.21 | 29.212054124888 | -0.00205412488804413 |
19 | 29.15 | 29.1125658215491 | 0.0374341784508658 |
20 | 29.22 | 29.2525160640695 | -0.0325160640695294 |
21 | 29.34 | 29.2684908824457 | 0.0715091175543456 |
22 | 29.13 | 29.3851511236541 | -0.255151123654134 |
23 | 28.84 | 28.9167489961306 | -0.0767489961305863 |
24 | 28.76 | 28.28948582453 | 0.470514175469994 |
25 | 28.75 | 28.7715893124228 | -0.0215893124228437 |
26 | 28.89 | 28.6968121527133 | 0.193187847286744 |
27 | 28.82 | 29.072926610257 | -0.252926610256992 |
28 | 29.12 | 29.0603400404988 | 0.0596599595012464 |
29 | 29.21 | 29.4435337486181 | -0.233533748618118 |
30 | 29.3 | 29.2441305294342 | 0.0558694705657636 |
31 | 29.32 | 29.2005177820014 | 0.119482217998637 |
32 | 29.52 | 29.4085359351535 | 0.111464064846501 |
33 | 29.64 | 29.5651654423806 | 0.0748345576193721 |
34 | 29.54 | 29.6536552021166 | -0.113655202116558 |
35 | 29.54 | 29.3269925409639 | 0.213007459036096 |
36 | 29.34 | 29.0013249702923 | 0.338675029707726 |
37 | 29.34 | 29.317331122475 | 0.0226688775250352 |
38 | 29.54 | 29.3021462719785 | 0.23785372802153 |
39 | 29.94 | 29.6792850582916 | 0.260714941708446 |
40 | 30.17 | 30.1703250985329 | -0.000325098532918844 |
41 | 30.23 | 30.4818197008414 | -0.251819700841441 |
42 | 30.34 | 30.2946898715913 | 0.0453101284086515 |
43 | 30.34 | 30.2442585976502 | 0.0957414023497734 |
44 | 30.36 | 30.4332466154967 | -0.0732466154967142 |
45 | 30.3 | 30.420625641373 | -0.120625641373039 |
46 | 30.28 | 30.3142334729633 | -0.0342334729632618 |
47 | 29.89 | 30.0854563526378 | -0.195456352637827 |
48 | 29.58 | 29.3955268161369 | 0.184473183863116 |
49 | 29.68 | 29.5417116646845 | 0.138288335315522 |
50 | 29.73 | 29.6512489296146 | 0.0787510703854011 |
51 | 30.07 | 29.8874201151666 | 0.18257988483338 |
52 | 30.32 | 30.2837351107693 | 0.0362648892306972 |
53 | 30.55 | 30.6055468315375 | -0.0555468315374732 |
54 | 30.62 | 30.624989108218 | -0.00498910821798759 |
55 | 30.67 | 30.5329896837833 | 0.137010316216717 |
56 | 30.79 | 30.7440355534956 | 0.0459644465044491 |
57 | 30.8 | 30.8353209901379 | -0.0353209901379365 |
58 | 30.5 | 30.8144341748607 | -0.314434174860718 |
59 | 30.07 | 30.3148880877644 | -0.244888087764416 |
60 | 29.41 | 29.613084124808 | -0.203084124808043 |
61 | 29.42 | 29.4043543558213 | 0.0156456441787185 |
62 | 29.99 | 29.3974768884209 | 0.592523111579059 |
63 | 30.14 | 30.1094044037821 | 0.0305955962178608 |
64 | 30.41 | 30.3547455428388 | 0.0552544571611655 |
65 | 30.78 | 30.6857440256094 | 0.0942559743906273 |
66 | 30.88 | 30.8460307160936 | 0.0339692839064263 |
67 | 30.92 | 30.8020989043876 | 0.117901095612368 |
68 | 30.93 | 30.987743490184 | -0.0577434901840128 |
69 | 31.62 | 30.9776301835964 | 0.642369816403612 |
70 | 31.48 | 31.5424243152516 | -0.0624243152515653 |
71 | 31.3 | 31.2704183169989 | 0.0295816830011333 |
72 | 31.11 | 30.8011430229086 | 0.308856977091356 |
73 | 31.16 | 31.0758905130886 | 0.0841094869114336 |
74 | 31.22 | 31.1865931796491 | 0.0334068203509403 |
75 | 31.66 | 31.3439398771555 | 0.316060122844501 |
76 | 32.11 | 31.8605069817491 | 0.249493018250877 |
77 | 32.27 | 32.3863416726684 | -0.116341672668405 |
78 | 32.36 | 32.3534958871779 | 0.00650411282207131 |
79 | 32.42 | 32.289249929747 | 0.130750070252986 |
80 | 32.52 | 32.4725208720462 | 0.047479127953757 |
81 | 32.41 | 32.6284881100679 | -0.21848811006786 |
82 | 31.87 | 32.3450241047971 | -0.475024104797125 |
83 | 31.04 | 31.7055973060308 | -0.665597306030765 |
84 | 30.58 | 30.6367600677434 | -0.0567600677433546 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 30.5598224636393 | 30.1556270748441 | 30.9640178524345 |
86 | 30.5891166652128 | 30.043868377202 | 31.1343649532236 |
87 | 30.7399063690089 | 30.0814511903568 | 31.398361547661 |
88 | 30.957660128265 | 30.2007688952606 | 31.7145513612694 |
89 | 31.2135322026997 | 30.3676983452492 | 32.0593660601502 |
90 | 31.2950553023196 | 30.371739265247 | 32.2183713393921 |
91 | 31.2388063362874 | 30.2473392466689 | 32.2302734259059 |
92 | 31.2939487020059 | 30.2357509853895 | 32.3521464186224 |
93 | 31.3783655230325 | 30.2562983739829 | 32.5004326720821 |
94 | 31.2711776573824 | 30.0947534558708 | 32.4476018588941 |
95 | 31.0464860160598 | 29.8226110849624 | 32.2703609471572 |
96 | 30.6377392236807 | -51.2633411824022 | 112.538819629764 |