Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
4 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
5 | 99.42 | 99.42 | 0 |
6 | 109.26 | 99.42 | 9.84 |
7 | 110 | 109.26 | 0.739999999999995 |
8 | 110 | 110 | 0 |
9 | 109.26 | 110 | -0.739999999999995 |
10 | 100.07 | 109.26 | -9.19000000000001 |
11 | 100.07 | 100.07 | 0 |
12 | 100.05 | 100.07 | -0.019999999999996 |
13 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
14 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
15 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
16 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
17 | 100.05 | 100.05 | 0 |
18 | 108.77 | 100.05 | 8.72 |
19 | 111.32 | 108.77 | 2.55 |
20 | 111.6 | 111.32 | 0.280000000000001 |
21 | 108.52 | 111.6 | -3.08 |
22 | 103.13 | 108.52 | -5.39 |
23 | 102.87 | 103.13 | -0.259999999999991 |
24 | 102.75 | 102.87 | -0.120000000000005 |
25 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
26 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
27 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
28 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
29 | 102.75 | 102.75 | 0 |
30 | 115.22 | 102.75 | 12.47 |
31 | 115.53 | 115.22 | 0.310000000000002 |
32 | 115.4 | 115.53 | -0.129999999999995 |
33 | 111.99 | 115.4 | -3.41000000000001 |
34 | 107.93 | 111.99 | -4.05999999999999 |
35 | 107.43 | 107.93 | -0.5 |
36 | 106.98 | 107.43 | -0.450000000000003 |
37 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
38 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
39 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
40 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
41 | 106.98 | 106.98 | 0 |
42 | 113.71 | 106.98 | 6.72999999999999 |
43 | 118.77 | 113.71 | 5.06 |
44 | 118.54 | 118.77 | -0.22999999999999 |
45 | 116.16 | 118.54 | -2.38000000000001 |
46 | 110.52 | 116.16 | -5.64 |
47 | 110.06 | 110.52 | -0.459999999999994 |
48 | 109.9 | 110.06 | -0.159999999999997 |
49 | 109.9 | 109.9 | 0 |
50 | 110.72 | 109.9 | 0.819999999999993 |
51 | 110.09 | 110.72 | -0.629999999999995 |
52 | 110.07 | 110.09 | -0.0200000000000102 |
53 | 112.45 | 110.07 | 2.38000000000001 |
54 | 113.06 | 112.45 | 0.609999999999999 |
55 | 119.83 | 113.06 | 6.77 |
56 | 119.84 | 119.83 | 0.0100000000000051 |
57 | 113.73 | 119.84 | -6.11 |
58 | 110.5 | 113.73 | -3.23 |
59 | 110.12 | 110.5 | -0.379999999999995 |
60 | 109.86 | 110.12 | -0.260000000000005 |
61 | 110.36 | 109.86 | 0.5 |
62 | 110.36 | 110.36 | 0 |
63 | 110.59 | 110.36 | 0.230000000000004 |
64 | 112.52 | 110.59 | 1.92999999999999 |
65 | 112.1 | 112.52 | -0.420000000000002 |
66 | 115.9 | 112.1 | 3.80000000000001 |
67 | 122.96 | 115.9 | 7.05999999999999 |
68 | 121.26 | 122.96 | -1.69999999999999 |
69 | 114.55 | 121.26 | -6.71000000000001 |
70 | 111.57 | 114.55 | -2.98 |
71 | 110.65 | 111.57 | -0.919999999999987 |
72 | 109.77 | 110.65 | -0.88000000000001 |
73 | 112.38 | 109.77 | 2.61 |
74 | 112.35 | 112.38 | -0.0300000000000011 |
75 | 112.2 | 112.35 | -0.149999999999991 |
76 | 114.46 | 112.2 | 2.25999999999999 |
77 | 116.26 | 114.46 | 1.80000000000001 |
78 | 119.57 | 116.26 | 3.30999999999999 |
79 | 127.77 | 119.57 | 8.2 |
80 | 126.59 | 127.77 | -1.17999999999999 |
81 | 120.45 | 126.59 | -6.14 |
82 | 116.38 | 120.45 | -4.07000000000001 |
83 | 116.3 | 116.38 | -0.0799999999999983 |
84 | 115.05 | 116.3 | -1.25 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 115.05 | 108.260831822413 | 121.839168177587 |
86 | 115.05 | 105.448666286025 | 124.651333713975 |
87 | 115.05 | 103.29081577529 | 126.80918422471 |
88 | 115.05 | 101.471663644827 | 128.628336355173 |
89 | 115.05 | 99.868958444238 | 130.231041555762 |
90 | 115.05 | 98.4200021869717 | 131.679997813028 |
91 | 115.05 | 97.0875493931123 | 133.012450606888 |
92 | 115.05 | 95.8473325720504 | 134.25266742795 |
93 | 115.05 | 94.6824954672402 | 135.41750453276 |
94 | 115.05 | 93.5807651408919 | 136.519234859108 |
95 | 115.05 | 92.5328765163243 | 137.567123483676 |
96 | 115.05 | 91.5316315505804 | 138.56836844942 |