Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.28568753838882 |
beta | 0.0196112628231865 |
gamma | 0.740858537204665 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 1.28 | 1.27180854393392 | 0.00819145606607807 |
14 | 1.27 | 1.265615650886 | 0.00438434911399632 |
15 | 1.26 | 1.25708954295794 | 0.0029104570420575 |
16 | 1.27 | 1.2656306516226 | 0.00436934837739966 |
17 | 1.27 | 1.26629009944361 | 0.0037099005563892 |
18 | 1.28 | 1.27800602959912 | 0.00199397040088023 |
19 | 1.27 | 1.27506691559079 | -0.00506691559079053 |
20 | 1.26 | 1.28437842907306 | -0.0243784290730562 |
21 | 1.3 | 1.26786957467032 | 0.0321304253296768 |
22 | 1.31 | 1.27689497699757 | 0.0331050230024257 |
23 | 1.28 | 1.3076503456443 | -0.0276503456443047 |
24 | 1.29 | 1.28989556331847 | 0.000104436681525266 |
25 | 1.31 | 1.30437947859955 | 0.005620521400447 |
26 | 1.29 | 1.29535654456512 | -0.00535654456512247 |
27 | 1.29 | 1.28315698831128 | 0.00684301168872059 |
28 | 1.32 | 1.29388040288874 | 0.0261195971112598 |
29 | 1.3 | 1.30060906787353 | -0.000609067873531322 |
30 | 1.29 | 1.31062923768122 | -0.020629237681222 |
31 | 1.31 | 1.29743253941617 | 0.012567460583834 |
32 | 1.29 | 1.30168362692955 | -0.0116836269295466 |
33 | 1.33 | 1.31937867304122 | 0.0106213269587783 |
34 | 1.35 | 1.32278397742074 | 0.0272160225792641 |
35 | 1.32 | 1.31948667072914 | 0.000513329270857232 |
36 | 1.33 | 1.32484010414548 | 0.00515989585452448 |
37 | 1.34 | 1.34444703687685 | -0.00444703687685122 |
38 | 1.34 | 1.3265225938193 | 0.0134774061806977 |
39 | 1.33 | 1.32634040797365 | 0.00365959202635424 |
40 | 1.33 | 1.34714349224861 | -0.0171434922486087 |
41 | 1.35 | 1.3271290513252 | 0.0228709486748044 |
42 | 1.32 | 1.33339164098667 | -0.0133916409866677 |
43 | 1.35 | 1.34032647974595 | 0.00967352025405122 |
44 | 1.32 | 1.33078240051498 | -0.0107824005149784 |
45 | 1.36 | 1.36165113206319 | -0.00165113206318668 |
46 | 1.37 | 1.37063156014866 | -0.000631560148660393 |
47 | 1.34 | 1.34477641230697 | -0.00477641230696579 |
48 | 1.32 | 1.35119011408384 | -0.031190114083844 |
49 | 1.34 | 1.35524386564322 | -0.0152438656432203 |
50 | 1.32 | 1.34338002355838 | -0.0233800235583757 |
51 | 1.33 | 1.32702266468358 | 0.00297733531641975 |
52 | 1.35 | 1.33612007519864 | 0.0138799248013597 |
53 | 1.33 | 1.34581764909372 | -0.0158176490937159 |
54 | 1.33 | 1.32138909676379 | 0.00861090323620584 |
55 | 1.35 | 1.3464453531992 | 0.00355464680079964 |
56 | 1.33 | 1.32391988691366 | 0.00608011308634282 |
57 | 1.36 | 1.36421690967426 | -0.00421690967425614 |
58 | 1.39 | 1.37268032532496 | 0.0173196746750386 |
59 | 1.37 | 1.34936064448812 | 0.0206393555118805 |
60 | 1.37 | 1.34876914471614 | 0.0212308552838638 |
61 | 1.39 | 1.37684665161855 | 0.0131533483814537 |
62 | 1.37 | 1.36870740753079 | 0.00129259246921376 |
63 | 1.39 | 1.37393723807847 | 0.0160627619215308 |
64 | 1.39 | 1.39355733053073 | -0.00355733053072682 |
65 | 1.39 | 1.38261435275164 | 0.00738564724835511 |
66 | 1.37 | 1.37800378456366 | -0.00800378456365758 |
67 | 1.38 | 1.39680317917066 | -0.0168031791706651 |
68 | 1.37 | 1.36943470936787 | 0.000565290632125404 |
69 | 1.41 | 1.40403931012215 | 0.00596068987785259 |
70 | 1.41 | 1.42784857859323 | -0.0178485785932341 |
71 | 1.42 | 1.39568874981488 | 0.0243112501851155 |
72 | 1.42 | 1.39644326334738 | 0.0235567366526159 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.42158362633113 | 1.39784418803856 | 1.44532306462369 |
74 | 1.40310200955454 | 1.3779326588225 | 1.42827136028658 |
75 | 1.41619041624024 | 1.38953551296069 | 1.4428453195198 |
76 | 1.42098090113768 | 1.39289214565379 | 1.44906965662158 |
77 | 1.41681348897774 | 1.38737105945094 | 1.44625591850453 |
78 | 1.40166484886862 | 1.37099023804947 | 1.43233945968778 |
79 | 1.41849214563176 | 1.38629282359191 | 1.45069146767161 |
80 | 1.40492806015067 | 1.37155233671297 | 1.43830378358838 |
81 | 1.44333170560191 | 1.40812255748498 | 1.47854085371884 |
82 | 1.45315972766973 | 1.41649306877227 | 1.48982638656719 |
83 | 1.44842818866301 | 1.41053130860397 | 1.48632506872204 |
84 | 1.44170921480102 | -9.67109662079829 | 12.5545150504003 |