| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.562708990539238 |
| beta | 0.0530547709145565 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1329.49 | 1382.81951869758 | -53.3295186975824 |
| 14 | 1276.16 | 1314.19332572796 | -38.0333257279647 |
| 15 | 1242.34 | 1272.57550737936 | -30.2355073793635 |
| 16 | 1181.59 | 1204.67540345956 | -23.0854034595648 |
| 17 | 1160.21 | 1177.74476431549 | -17.5347643154923 |
| 18 | 1135.18 | 1147.24127769109 | -12.0612776910903 |
| 19 | 1135.18 | 1374.9038275473 | -239.723827547298 |
| 20 | 1084.96 | 1120.93644335164 | -35.9764433516409 |
| 21 | 1077.35 | 999.033312248262 | 78.3166877517382 |
| 22 | 1061.13 | 971.858962574559 | 89.2710374254414 |
| 23 | 1029.98 | 983.209219907357 | 46.770780092643 |
| 24 | 1013.08 | 969.813803655083 | 43.2661963449166 |
| 25 | 1013.08 | 979.740110289325 | 33.3398897106747 |
| 26 | 996.04 | 967.441572315221 | 28.5984276847788 |
| 27 | 975.02 | 965.663358546003 | 9.35664145399676 |
| 28 | 951.89 | 930.017816931904 | 21.8721830680961 |
| 29 | 944.4 | 931.116227759194 | 13.2837722408058 |
| 30 | 932.47 | 922.901748002307 | 9.56825199769276 |
| 31 | 932.47 | 1029.12736272964 | -96.6573627296368 |
| 32 | 920.44 | 952.437027564243 | -31.9970275642431 |
| 33 | 900.18 | 892.338338462928 | 7.84166153707156 |
| 34 | 886.9 | 840.726123269499 | 46.173876730501 |
| 35 | 867.74 | 818.885531340961 | 48.854468659039 |
| 36 | 859.03 | 812.072518728748 | 46.9574812712516 |
| 37 | 859.03 | 823.171934123027 | 35.8580658769731 |
| 38 | 844.99 | 816.360996699096 | 28.6290033009037 |
| 39 | 834.82 | 811.447238887368 | 23.3727611126317 |
| 40 | 825.62 | 796.131598695407 | 29.4884013045935 |
| 41 | 816.92 | 802.010318970701 | 14.9096810292987 |
| 42 | 813.21 | 797.817721571007 | 15.3922784289933 |
| 43 | 813.21 | 854.326275953634 | -41.1162759536335 |
| 44 | 811.03 | 841.054648233559 | -30.024648233559 |
| 45 | 804.16 | 806.878513552588 | -2.71851355258764 |
| 46 | 788.62 | 774.120073350643 | 14.499926649357 |
| 47 | 778.76 | 743.744058245206 | 35.0159417547939 |
| 48 | 765.91 | 734.821415912751 | 31.0885840872494 |
| 49 | 765.91 | 736.7522971791 | 29.1577028209005 |
| 50 | 753.85 | 728.848616299914 | 25.0013837000863 |
| 51 | 742.22 | 724.613264698889 | 17.6067353011108 |
| 52 | 732.11 | 713.826697701842 | 18.2833022981582 |
| 53 | 729.94 | 711.010769972557 | 18.9292300274427 |
| 54 | 731.22 | 712.883460253134 | 18.3365397468665 |
| 55 | 731.22 | 745.879995345047 | -14.6599953450473 |
| 56 | 729.11 | 754.328552937699 | -25.2185529376993 |
| 57 | 726.94 | 739.05809299382 | -12.1180929938198 |
| 58 | 720.52 | 714.044924195011 | 6.47507580498871 |
| 59 | 709.36 | 693.603875340769 | 15.756124659231 |
| 60 | 703.21 | 677.316230863311 | 25.8937691366892 |
| 61 | 703.21 | 679.250529721612 | 23.9594702783879 |
| 62 | 695.88 | 671.240742154184 | 24.6392578458161 |
| 63 | 681.63 | 667.842006727763 | 13.7879932722366 |
| 64 | 672.1 | 659.253403224131 | 12.8465967758688 |
| 65 | 665.49 | 656.900008664845 | 8.58999133515522 |
| 66 | 658.93 | 655.33698928797 | 3.59301071202992 |
| 67 | 658.93 | 666.175342717996 | -7.24534271799575 |
| 68 | 656 | 674.609535655245 | -18.6095356552452 |
| 69 | 650.66 | 670.317901538987 | -19.6579015389874 |
| 70 | 645.93 | 651.802698446574 | -5.87269844657453 |
| 71 | 638.74 | 631.630957033288 | 7.10904296671208 |
| 72 | 634.67 | 617.810719560948 | 16.8592804390515 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 615.801403160694 | 528.063453653615 | 703.539352667772 |
| 74 | 596.94947266441 | 495.389769653371 | 698.509175675449 |
| 75 | 577.10602212668 | 462.730604977621 | 691.481439275739 |
| 76 | 561.523655998976 | 434.557397386714 | 688.489914611238 |
| 77 | 550.187150929256 | 410.422533831119 | 689.951768027393 |
| 78 | 541.052772204561 | 388.278435405064 | 693.827109004058 |
| 79 | 542.176485922425 | 374.145444828995 | 710.207527015854 |
| 80 | 546.210800244058 | 361.741984415197 | 730.679616072918 |
| 81 | 549.294222075837 | 348.055322739588 | 750.533121412087 |
| 82 | 547.101384286075 | 330.210023928694 | 763.992744643457 |
| 83 | 536.804991206454 | 306.800378740363 | 766.809603672544 |
| 84 | 524.277796861776 | 298.203834449847 | 750.351759273705 |
