Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.740373466602422 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 102.9 | 102.444870162393 | 0.45512983760743 |
14 | 102.91 | 102.8144270262 | 0.0955729738000883 |
15 | 103.29 | 103.288572493342 | 0.00142750665771985 |
16 | 103.35 | 103.374356249935 | -0.0243562499350531 |
17 | 102.97 | 102.983861704607 | -0.0138617046067395 |
18 | 103.05 | 103.041192125592 | 0.00880787440763697 |
19 | 103.18 | 103.483302926548 | -0.303302926547971 |
20 | 103.21 | 103.304916859164 | -0.0949168591639022 |
21 | 103.32 | 103.263230486172 | 0.0567695138280726 |
22 | 103.31 | 103.298725330448 | 0.0112746695516108 |
23 | 103.6 | 103.107396965814 | 0.49260303418562 |
24 | 103.68 | 103.557758544626 | 0.122241455373882 |
25 | 103.77 | 103.898632981152 | -0.128632981151924 |
26 | 103.82 | 103.74154809062 | 0.0784519093795666 |
27 | 103.86 | 104.181319293605 | -0.321319293604702 |
28 | 103.9 | 104.02155927111 | -0.121559271110343 |
29 | 103.63 | 103.55939737299 | 0.0706026270101319 |
30 | 103.65 | 103.685224680268 | -0.0352246802675609 |
31 | 103.7 | 104.015263248144 | -0.315263248144277 |
32 | 103.77 | 103.882334280978 | -0.112334280978118 |
33 | 103.94 | 103.867165543837 | 0.0728344561634344 |
34 | 104.03 | 103.902278614619 | 0.127721385380724 |
35 | 104.03 | 103.92077180307 | 0.109228196929564 |
36 | 104.29 | 103.990831047014 | 0.299168952986193 |
37 | 104.35 | 104.398169550859 | -0.0481695508594413 |
38 | 104.67 | 104.354014729247 | 0.315985270752662 |
39 | 104.73 | 104.867266975668 | -0.137266975668027 |
40 | 104.86 | 104.89620738305 | -0.0362073830503533 |
41 | 104.05 | 104.543540483666 | -0.493540483665939 |
42 | 104.15 | 104.224133140537 | -0.0741331405368868 |
43 | 104.27 | 104.45358682585 | -0.183586825849886 |
44 | 104.33 | 104.471356297581 | -0.141356297580671 |
45 | 104.41 | 104.483079362608 | -0.0730793626077855 |
46 | 104.4 | 104.424071145224 | -0.0240711452238713 |
47 | 104.41 | 104.324843415681 | 0.0851565843191224 |
48 | 104.6 | 104.426150194253 | 0.173849805747125 |
49 | 104.61 | 104.650610327421 | -0.0406103274207226 |
50 | 104.65 | 104.706476466661 | -0.0564764666606266 |
51 | 104.55 | 104.826251936341 | -0.276251936341438 |
52 | 104.51 | 104.778428347848 | -0.268428347848044 |
53 | 104.74 | 104.135999163326 | 0.604000836674274 |
54 | 104.89 | 104.738541323958 | 0.151458676042083 |
55 | 104.91 | 105.107846676982 | -0.197846676981584 |
56 | 104.93 | 105.126670298978 | -0.196670298978049 |
57 | 104.95 | 105.115610404951 | -0.165610404951295 |
58 | 104.97 | 105.000518190197 | -0.0305181901970428 |
59 | 105.16 | 104.924228995682 | 0.235771004318082 |
60 | 105.29 | 105.160017495845 | 0.129982504154967 |
61 | 105.35 | 105.296183440266 | 0.0538165597336189 |
62 | 105.36 | 105.417977642561 | -0.0579776425613261 |
63 | 105.45 | 105.479739988245 | -0.0297399882447422 |
64 | 105.3 | 105.617169805603 | -0.317169805603342 |
65 | 105.73 | 105.162159179104 | 0.56784082089635 |
66 | 105.86 | 105.620206967834 | 0.23979303216619 |
67 | 105.85 | 105.965061667634 | -0.115061667634222 |
68 | 105.95 | 106.046374729209 | -0.0963747292089465 |
69 | 105.97 | 106.118392922129 | -0.148392922129148 |
70 | 106.15 | 106.050930140219 | 0.0990698597808262 |
71 | 105.37 | 106.13911230456 | -0.769112304559584 |
72 | 105.39 | 105.60330786866 | -0.213307868660081 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 105.465469960074 | 105.001130368587 | 105.929809551562 |
74 | 105.518379712479 | 104.940642485437 | 106.09611693952 |
75 | 105.630472941295 | 104.958018073359 | 106.30292780923 |
76 | 105.715153371868 | 104.959812372247 | 106.47049437149 |
77 | 105.723945676186 | 104.894332715493 | 106.553558636879 |
78 | 105.676311043747 | 104.77896559985 | 106.573656487645 |
79 | 105.751451542469 | 104.79040924488 | 106.712493840059 |
80 | 105.922685593521 | 104.901163220003 | 106.944207967039 |
81 | 106.052494205144 | 104.974107262969 | 107.130881147319 |
82 | 106.159162928329 | 105.026901604388 | 107.29142425227 |
83 | 105.947492652875 | 104.76676392827 | 107.12822137748 |
84 | 106.125975759256 | 98.4753818076871 | 113.776569710825 |