Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0313134853583391 |
gamma | 0.0896131058144704 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 104.18 | 102.906403553622 | 1.27359644637811 |
14 | 103.73 | 103.837545785461 | -0.107545785460815 |
15 | 103.78 | 103.886634803032 | -0.106634803032009 |
16 | 103.61 | 103.70012729274 | -0.0901272927402346 |
17 | 103.84 | 103.8982464176 | -0.0582464176002873 |
18 | 103.86 | 103.934250207149 | -0.0742502071490208 |
19 | 104.14 | 105.236951880244 | -1.09695188024438 |
20 | 104.05 | 103.782767009526 | 0.267232990474199 |
21 | 104.01 | 103.858821321794 | 0.151178678206435 |
22 | 104.49 | 103.983708791686 | 0.506291208314096 |
23 | 104.83 | 104.497779776275 | 0.332220223724946 |
24 | 104.78 | 105.630138797072 | -0.850138797072162 |
25 | 104.95 | 105.303592773973 | -0.353592773973489 |
26 | 105.28 | 104.557551152783 | 0.722448847217308 |
27 | 105.28 | 105.416012827318 | -0.136012827318311 |
28 | 105.91 | 105.175300809067 | 0.734699190932588 |
29 | 106.81 | 106.205332270135 | 0.604667729865142 |
30 | 106.39 | 106.927174309219 | -0.537174309219452 |
31 | 107.02 | 107.807178102903 | -0.787178102903155 |
32 | 106.92 | 106.669503089787 | 0.25049691021286 |
33 | 107.01 | 106.739365529392 | 0.270634470607817 |
34 | 106.79 | 107.002126830241 | -0.212126830240962 |
35 | 107.41 | 106.795448647215 | 0.614551352784744 |
36 | 107.13 | 108.235463203393 | -1.10546320339304 |
37 | 107.54 | 107.663995815448 | -0.123995815448083 |
38 | 108.48 | 107.143573512428 | 1.33642648757231 |
39 | 108.5 | 108.643472169457 | -0.143472169456786 |
40 | 108.27 | 108.41522389482 | -0.145223894819651 |
41 | 109.42 | 108.568438951004 | 0.851561048996231 |
42 | 110.09 | 109.543397529248 | 0.546602470751722 |
43 | 109.98 | 111.592487897696 | -1.61248789769624 |
44 | 109.99 | 109.632065339234 | 0.357934660766205 |
45 | 109.54 | 109.81933359738 | -0.279333597380273 |
46 | 108.85 | 109.530619569642 | -0.680619569641948 |
47 | 106.76 | 108.840561401912 | -2.08056140191204 |
48 | 107.56 | 107.485399629368 | 0.0746003706318419 |
49 | 106.24 | 108.035869552339 | -1.79586955233886 |
50 | 108.85 | 105.739070320006 | 3.11092967999375 |
51 | 111.11 | 108.957564928907 | 2.15243507109253 |
52 | 111.85 | 111.034342838576 | 0.815657161424383 |
53 | 110.68 | 112.197887476032 | -1.51788747603241 |
54 | 106.96 | 110.774261232041 | -3.81426123204101 |
55 | 106.74 | 108.260443733178 | -1.52044373317831 |
56 | 105.73 | 106.245418263058 | -0.515418263057512 |
57 | 105.66 | 105.384574912989 | 0.27542508701103 |
58 | 104.01 | 105.486272481623 | -1.4762724816234 |
59 | 106.86 | 103.81254656185 | 3.04745343814989 |
60 | 108.84 | 107.550091978914 | 1.28990802108584 |
61 | 110.66 | 109.32235526538 | 1.33764473462041 |
62 | 106.93 | 110.235610819462 | -3.30561081946229 |
63 | 103.74 | 106.937292935347 | -3.19729293534716 |
64 | 101.64 | 103.416158541542 | -1.77615854154242 |
65 | 102.17 | 101.629339158655 | 0.540660841344803 |
66 | 101.13 | 101.987722447404 | -0.857722447403745 |
67 | 100.64 | 102.169730057446 | -1.52973005744579 |
68 | 100.43 | 99.9820071918438 | 0.447992808156158 |
69 | 99.77 | 99.9398964229408 | -0.169896422940852 |
70 | 99.79 | 99.4309270637914 | 0.359072936208619 |
71 | 99.47 | 99.4809362159269 | -0.0109362159269324 |
72 | 99.63 | 99.9017893755851 | -0.271789375585072 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 99.8157849635995 | 97.2920713163253 | 102.339498610874 |
74 | 99.1425384809765 | 95.526967194978 | 102.758109766975 |
75 | 98.9509539507473 | 94.451200868607 | 103.450707032888 |
76 | 98.5380581890269 | 93.2702670924126 | 103.805849285641 |
77 | 98.4783179924136 | 92.4904282241067 | 104.466207760721 |
78 | 98.2363945133374 | 91.5811248968841 | 104.891664129791 |
79 | 99.2064211436651 | 91.8347762117089 | 106.578066075621 |
80 | 98.5666467433743 | 90.6112577126983 | 106.52203577405 |
81 | 98.0800430752601 | 89.5473726139363 | 106.612713536584 |
82 | 97.7465856099672 | 88.6376449010697 | 106.855526318865 |
83 | 97.4321957374114 | 87.755787969298 | 107.108603505525 |
84 | 97.8437533764539 | 78.115867887128 | 117.57163886578 |