| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00622700651239415 |
| beta | 0.442874882632437 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2360 | 2381.05987486467 | -21.0598748646744 |
| 14 | 2160 | 2180.476957968 | -20.476957967996 |
| 15 | 2380 | 2395.10664181067 | -15.1066418106684 |
| 16 | 2280 | 2285.71689453454 | -5.71689453453973 |
| 17 | 2320 | 2317.00533016926 | 2.99466983073808 |
| 18 | 2400 | 2403.43853612701 | -3.4385361270115 |
| 19 | 1960 | 2132.65485182856 | -172.654851828559 |
| 20 | 2520 | 2387.02521543823 | 132.974784561773 |
| 21 | 2200 | 2170.77425458943 | 29.2257454105693 |
| 22 | 2420 | 2253.39992842702 | 166.600071572983 |
| 23 | 2300 | 2280.1358520103 | 19.8641479896974 |
| 24 | 2280 | 2481.23081389417 | -201.230813894168 |
| 25 | 2220 | 2344.7008480563 | -124.700848056302 |
| 26 | 2240 | 2144.91959083343 | 95.0804091665677 |
| 27 | 2200 | 2363.93629052775 | -163.936290527747 |
| 28 | 2340 | 2263.0894972041 | 76.9105027959049 |
| 29 | 2240 | 2302.90388349635 | -62.9038834963458 |
| 30 | 2500 | 2381.37163861337 | 118.628361386625 |
| 31 | 1820 | 1946.18977096798 | -126.189770967976 |
| 32 | 2520 | 2500.2441639968 | 19.7558360031994 |
| 33 | 2180 | 2182.28213638723 | -2.28213638722946 |
| 34 | 2480 | 2398.85896354602 | 81.1410364539815 |
| 35 | 2260 | 2279.50609342375 | -19.5060934237517 |
| 36 | 2400 | 2259.84578174065 | 140.154218259347 |
| 37 | 2240 | 2201.98731858475 | 38.0126814152522 |
| 38 | 2240 | 2221.91569457314 | 18.0843054268589 |
| 39 | 2240 | 2183.53124310755 | 56.468756892451 |
| 40 | 2140 | 2323.2317187126 | -183.231718712599 |
| 41 | 2200 | 2223.37071440498 | -23.3707144049763 |
| 42 | 2460 | 2480.77639050381 | -20.776390503805 |
| 43 | 1860 | 1806.54519859233 | 53.4548014076681 |
| 44 | 2480 | 2502.22905290481 | -22.2290529048123 |
| 45 | 1960 | 2164.87202542108 | -204.872025421077 |
| 46 | 2540 | 2460.58322967229 | 79.4167703277126 |
| 47 | 2280 | 2242.64962804927 | 37.350371950733 |
| 48 | 2320 | 2380.82774351284 | -60.8277435128384 |
| 49 | 2320 | 2220.9063463967 | 99.0936536032959 |
| 50 | 2440 | 2220.9708016645 | 219.029198335503 |
| 51 | 2320 | 2222.09146040843 | 97.9085395915749 |
| 52 | 2180 | 2124.73316908889 | 55.2668309111073 |
| 53 | 2120 | 2185.65772723671 | -65.6577272367135 |
| 54 | 2460 | 2444.4593072305 | 15.5406927694994 |
| 55 | 2140 | 1848.68312734158 | 291.316872658423 |
| 56 | 2480 | 2469.27340219349 | 10.7265978065116 |
| 57 | 2100 | 1954.22840767499 | 145.771592325013 |
| 58 | 2700 | 2536.32228574824 | 163.677714251759 |
| 59 | 2200 | 2280.39867371078 | -80.3986737107839 |
| 60 | 2260 | 2323.01181135031 | -63.0118113503113 |
| 61 | 2340 | 2324.71417857576 | 15.2858214242351 |
| 62 | 2720 | 2446.18482196431 | 273.815178035692 |
| 63 | 2300 | 2329.44915101345 | -29.4491510134471 |
| 64 | 2360 | 2190.44069563007 | 169.55930436993 |
| 65 | 2020 | 2133.91360545637 | -113.913605456372 |
| 66 | 2380 | 2477.77497001961 | -97.7749700196055 |
| 67 | 2000 | 2154.76669680155 | -154.766696801554 |
| 68 | 2540 | 2496.60489902085 | 43.3951009791458 |
| 69 | 1980 | 2113.95612686743 | -133.956126867433 |
| 70 | 2940 | 2715.58010192006 | 224.419898079943 |
| 71 | 2260 | 2214.26744612172 | 45.7325538782775 |
| 72 | 2300 | 2275.63007037828 | 24.3699296217164 |
| 73 | 2300 | 2356.79643478247 | -56.7964347824736 |
| 74 | 2820 | 2737.61499405615 | 82.3850059438487 |
| 75 | 2380 | 2315.33605089354 | 64.6639491064643 |
| 76 | 2360 | 2375.09029755361 | -15.090297553606 |
| 77 | 1980 | 2033.1167340484 | -53.1167340484049 |
| 78 | 2340 | 2395.36815261024 | -55.3681526102391 |
| 79 | 2160 | 2013.37641147782 | 146.623588522181 |
| 80 | 2700 | 2558.70048917066 | 141.299510829342 |
| 81 | 1920 | 1996.90550179448 | -76.9055017944768 |
| 82 | 2980 | 2964.33641593204 | 15.6635840679633 |
| 83 | 2240 | 2279.13331335627 | -39.1333133562739 |
| 84 | 2180 | 2319.48226595812 | -139.482265958115 |
| 85 | 2440 | 2318.92188321346 | 121.078116786539 |
| 86 | 2740 | 2844.13988437373 | -104.13988437373 |
| 87 | 2360 | 2399.43043500578 | -39.4304350057751 |
| 88 | 2380 | 2378.8487966184 | 1.15120338160341 |
| 89 | 2000 | 1995.95670590119 | 4.04329409880916 |
| 90 | 2500 | 2359.18827699578 | 140.811723004221 |
| 91 | 2180 | 2177.994445887 | 2.0055541129982 |
| 92 | 2740 | 2721.60881448857 | 18.391185511432 |
| 93 | 1960 | 1935.67955559582 | 24.3204444041805 |
| 94 | 3060 | 3004.53416049764 | 55.465839502358 |
| 95 | 2300 | 2259.07132356216 | 40.9286764378385 |
| 96 | 2240 | 2199.97053116764 | 40.0294688323593 |
| 97 | 2580 | 2462.73972692774 | 117.260273072261 |
| 98 | 2740 | 2767.97090930031 | -27.9709093003144 |
| 99 | 2260 | 2385.20655271317 | -125.206552713165 |
| 100 | 2400 | 2405.41618635118 | -5.41618635117538 |
| 101 | 1820 | 2021.95179058215 | -201.951790582153 |
| 102 | 2440 | 2525.02879360445 | -85.0287936044497 |
| 103 | 2080 | 2200.8718420793 | -120.871842079305 |
| 104 | 2680 | 2764.14504271822 | -84.1450427182172 |
| 105 | 1900 | 1975.80707169735 | -75.8070716973502 |
| 106 | 3000 | 3081.69736849845 | -81.6973684984514 |
| 107 | 2240 | 2313.96062175932 | -73.9606217593241 |
| 108 | 2300 | 2250.92561927898 | 49.0743807210201 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 2589.93232889419 | 2385.21854566346 | 2794.64611212492 |
| 110 | 2747.99240089365 | 2543.26931710607 | 2952.71548468123 |
| 111 | 2265.14948771259 | 2060.41929917912 | 2469.87967624607 |
| 112 | 2403.53468156662 | 2198.78227972826 | 2608.28708340498 |
| 113 | 1822.33577739347 | 1617.58357257216 | 2027.08798221478 |
| 114 | 2442.33535028473 | 2237.50667798516 | 2647.1640225843 |
| 115 | 2081.78154104436 | 1876.94372608618 | 2286.61935600253 |
| 116 | 2682.02334763542 | 2477.0150790856 | 2887.03161618524 |
| 117 | 1901.49515454091 | 1696.58030491709 | 2106.41000416474 |
| 118 | 3002.55258683808 | 2797.16962079118 | 3207.93555288498 |
| 119 | 2242.28922342922 | 2037.09524720522 | 2447.48319965321 |
| 120 | 2302.17624075491 | 1202.77866091143 | 3401.57382059839 |
