Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.390555699717276 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 15.579 | 15.4548089922599 | 0.124191007740077 |
14 | 16.348 | 16.4202003344058 | -0.0722003344058351 |
15 | 15.928 | 15.9239578943238 | 0.00404210567620922 |
16 | 16.171 | 16.072032518888 | 0.0989674811120338 |
17 | 15.937 | 15.8095724402582 | 0.127427559741818 |
18 | 15.713 | 15.574200346408 | 0.138799653591967 |
19 | 15.594 | 16.8367734825685 | -1.24277348256845 |
20 | 15.683 | 15.3326210878771 | 0.35037891212286 |
21 | 16.438 | 14.9322846281521 | 1.50571537184791 |
22 | 17.032 | 16.2288897724011 | 0.803110227598886 |
23 | 17.696 | 17.9113593373384 | -0.215359337338423 |
24 | 17.745 | 17.3774845502951 | 0.367515449704918 |
25 | 19.394 | 18.1018019164242 | 1.2921980835758 |
26 | 20.148 | 20.4300272021554 | -0.282027202155398 |
27 | 20.108 | 19.615095456479 | 0.492904543521036 |
28 | 18.584 | 20.2781339945216 | -1.6941339945216 |
29 | 18.441 | 18.1621566059006 | 0.278843394099372 |
30 | 18.391 | 18.0145435528109 | 0.376456447189117 |
31 | 19.178 | 19.698587106943 | -0.52058710694298 |
32 | 18.079 | 18.8463499802461 | -0.767349980246134 |
33 | 18.483 | 17.2071565053258 | 1.27584349467424 |
34 | 19.644 | 18.242713930467 | 1.40128606953296 |
35 | 19.195 | 20.6515420777206 | -1.45654207772061 |
36 | 19.65 | 18.8458922152151 | 0.804107784784897 |
37 | 20.83 | 20.0404483955595 | 0.789551604440515 |
38 | 23.595 | 21.9393617715101 | 1.65563822848985 |
39 | 22.937 | 22.9633457661497 | -0.0263457661497206 |
40 | 21.814 | 23.1247993233655 | -1.31079932336552 |
41 | 21.928 | 21.3112850166031 | 0.616714983396893 |
42 | 21.777 | 21.4128968917593 | 0.364103108240737 |
43 | 21.383 | 23.3169967156555 | -1.93399671565551 |
44 | 21.467 | 21.0081167792622 | 0.458883220737789 |
45 | 22.052 | 20.423878508608 | 1.62812149139196 |
46 | 22.68 | 21.7573048449596 | 0.922695155040408 |
47 | 24.32 | 23.8365324298647 | 0.483467570135307 |
48 | 24.977 | 23.8662986746648 | 1.11070132533521 |
49 | 25.204 | 25.4615349017819 | -0.257534901781895 |
50 | 25.739 | 26.5367360099208 | -0.79773600992079 |
51 | 26.434 | 25.0459244327973 | 1.38807556720273 |
52 | 27.525 | 26.6436358928131 | 0.881364107186915 |
53 | 30.695 | 26.8792950331733 | 3.81570496682665 |
54 | 32.436 | 29.9570218480427 | 2.47897815195727 |
55 | 30.16 | 34.7076133781679 | -4.54761337816786 |
56 | 30.236 | 29.6130270717629 | 0.622972928237058 |
57 | 31.293 | 28.7495677786146 | 2.54343222138536 |
58 | 31.077 | 30.8574266272027 | 0.219573372797289 |
59 | 32.226 | 32.6456114769509 | -0.419611476950934 |
60 | 33.865 | 31.6109491075251 | 2.25405089247486 |
61 | 32.81 | 34.5065164800257 | -1.6965164800257 |
62 | 32.242 | 34.5311640980212 | -2.28916409802123 |
63 | 32.7 | 31.3626264240328 | 1.33737357596718 |
64 | 32.819 | 32.9487631287749 | -0.12976312877489 |
65 | 33.947 | 32.0407457471854 | 1.90625425281459 |
66 | 34.148 | 33.1263493669014 | 1.02165063309862 |
67 | 35.261 | 36.5371223120473 | -1.27612231204731 |
68 | 39.506 | 34.6140123061307 | 4.89198769386925 |
69 | 41.591 | 37.5509293401338 | 4.04007065986624 |
70 | 39.148 | 40.9984345390672 | -1.85043453906719 |
71 | 41.216 | 41.1126922187674 | 0.103307781232587 |
72 | 40.225 | 40.4174767310281 | -0.192476731028108 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 40.9788480324144 | 37.9544132731134 | 44.0032827917154 |
74 | 43.1171841029854 | 38.7294126953667 | 47.5049555106041 |
75 | 41.9262581445281 | 36.7001266437564 | 47.1523896452999 |
76 | 42.2326334628124 | 36.1661831614116 | 48.2990837642131 |
77 | 41.2186840090065 | 34.5757002178068 | 47.8616678002062 |
78 | 40.2131723183739 | 33.0674569142375 | 47.3588877225103 |
79 | 43.018598329561 | 34.8052835352771 | 51.2319131238449 |
80 | 42.219508228556 | 33.6179750068664 | 50.8210414502455 |
81 | 40.1272580369707 | 31.4185262542251 | 48.8359898197162 |
82 | 39.5570071912319 | 30.4633593077117 | 48.650655074752 |
83 | 41.541771256327 | 31.5339155170687 | 51.5496269955853 |
84 | 40.7365994860656 | -27.8335770469334 | 109.306776019065 |