| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.331260492389542 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.916831042153381 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 31124 | 31525.9345619658 | -401.934561965812 |
| 14 | 26551 | 26720.243338077 | -169.243338076958 |
| 15 | 30651 | 30666.3835235883 | -15.3835235882507 |
| 16 | 25859 | 25670.616387006 | 188.383612993966 |
| 17 | 25100 | 24766.4742524209 | 333.525747579144 |
| 18 | 25778 | 25364.4953061382 | 413.504693861836 |
| 19 | 20418 | 18403.2602249819 | 2014.73977501813 |
| 20 | 18688 | 18450.7843985742 | 237.215601425843 |
| 21 | 20424 | 19741.4433725213 | 682.55662747872 |
| 22 | 24776 | 23023.9179007066 | 1752.08209929339 |
| 23 | 19814 | 20165.2256299751 | -351.225629975092 |
| 24 | 12738 | 12066.4156051994 | 671.584394800631 |
| 25 | 31566 | 33669.6125561379 | -2103.61255613787 |
| 26 | 30111 | 28442.8905503981 | 1668.10944960189 |
| 27 | 30019 | 33092.0078298613 | -3073.00782986126 |
| 28 | 31934 | 27208.3044990538 | 4725.6955009462 |
| 29 | 25826 | 27896.1842455707 | -2070.18424557074 |
| 30 | 26835 | 27746.9879260917 | -911.987926091737 |
| 31 | 20205 | 21328.4205848637 | -1123.42058486369 |
| 32 | 17789 | 19246.5585653018 | -1457.55856530185 |
| 33 | 20520 | 20248.8538117347 | 271.146188265338 |
| 34 | 22518 | 24050.7929914602 | -1532.79299146021 |
| 35 | 15572 | 18814.3689486362 | -3242.3689486362 |
| 36 | 11509 | 10384.9438126306 | 1124.05618736942 |
| 37 | 25447 | 30436.4948749396 | -4989.49487493964 |
| 38 | 24090 | 26566.3165660545 | -2476.31656605451 |
| 39 | 27786 | 26935.6700131031 | 850.329986896864 |
| 40 | 26195 | 27133.1633735871 | -938.163373587107 |
| 41 | 20516 | 21778.1329051095 | -1262.1329051095 |
| 42 | 22759 | 22606.7267179333 | 152.273282066661 |
| 43 | 19028 | 16411.0732358366 | 2616.92676416336 |
| 44 | 16971 | 15363.3734614409 | 1607.62653855909 |
| 45 | 20036 | 18440.9488633413 | 1595.05113665875 |
| 46 | 22485 | 21575.4122023408 | 909.587797659169 |
| 47 | 18730 | 16099.8752630701 | 2630.1247369299 |
| 48 | 14538 | 12292.9228326656 | 2245.07716733445 |
| 49 | 27561 | 28967.4764618909 | -1406.4764618909 |
| 50 | 25985 | 27825.093345745 | -1840.09334574504 |
| 51 | 34670 | 30444.8397359198 | 4225.16026408016 |
| 52 | 32066 | 30663.7179482438 | 1402.28205175617 |
| 53 | 27186 | 25885.3520153839 | 1300.64798461608 |
| 54 | 29586 | 28430.0962210931 | 1155.90377890689 |
| 55 | 21359 | 24078.037023445 | -2719.03702344495 |
| 56 | 21553 | 20643.9199527798 | 909.080047220188 |
| 57 | 19573 | 23482.384255257 | -3909.38425525702 |
| 58 | 24256 | 24373.1735523799 | -117.173552379903 |
| 59 | 22380 | 19612.4087118159 | 2767.59128818409 |
| 60 | 16167 | 15614.9127141611 | 552.087285838943 |
| 61 | 27297 | 29489.8009588359 | -2192.80095883592 |
| 62 | 28287 | 27821.0799246359 | 465.920075364094 |
| 63 | 33474 | 34923.452661919 | -1449.45266191904 |
| 64 | 28229 | 31531.7894955057 | -3302.78949550571 |
| 65 | 28785 | 25132.5052500954 | 3652.49474990463 |
| 66 | 25597 | 28367.5776409306 | -2770.57764093062 |
| 67 | 18130 | 20339.0221538131 | -2209.02215381312 |
| 68 | 20198 | 19298.3281332891 | 899.671866710902 |
| 69 | 22849 | 19179.37355256 | 3669.62644743998 |
| 70 | 23118 | 24905.8742149828 | -1787.87421498276 |
| 71 | 21925 | 21360.3825570784 | 564.617442921633 |
| 72 | 20801 | 15274.7560198114 | 5526.24398018864 |
| 73 | 18785 | 29114.436851378 | -10329.436851378 |
| 74 | 20659 | 26380.4878756309 | -5721.48787563092 |
| 75 | 29367 | 30258.8612928352 | -891.861292835154 |
| 76 | 23992 | 25915.5861262556 | -1923.58612625556 |
| 77 | 20645 | 24237.6092714736 | -3592.60927147361 |
| 78 | 22356 | 21134.5434721829 | 1221.45652781714 |
| 79 | 17902 | 14772.6927297022 | 3129.3072702978 |
| 80 | 15879 | 17406.382363563 | -1527.382363563 |
| 81 | 16963 | 18181.7583128879 | -1218.75831288795 |
| 82 | 21035 | 18942.8212066024 | 2092.17879339756 |
| 83 | 17988 | 18125.000185161 | -137.00018516104 |
| 84 | 10437 | 14849.0335641996 | -4412.03356419959 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 15675.1025808713 | 10621.7389365028 | 20728.4662252398 |
| 86 | 19188.1188702693 | 13864.7090367586 | 24511.5287037801 |
| 87 | 27922.9413330846 | 22342.5380870089 | 33503.3445791603 |
| 88 | 23242.5322717979 | 17416.4608233769 | 29068.6037202188 |
| 89 | 21178.4501313852 | 15116.6585929538 | 27240.2416698167 |
| 90 | 22217.0793577377 | 15928.3970801304 | 28505.7616353451 |
| 91 | 16620.3519460112 | 10112.6847048267 | 23128.0191871958 |
| 92 | 15362.3108571721 | 8642.79145060138 | 22081.8302637427 |
| 93 | 16832.8721700041 | 9907.97872760565 | 23757.7656124026 |
| 94 | 20027.6670746028 | 12903.3174676656 | 27152.0166815401 |
| 95 | 17150.0331199831 | 9831.66134375033 | 24468.4048962159 |
| 96 | 11298.3359102397 | 3790.95463655614 | 18805.7171839232 |
