Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.652671177821116 |
beta | 0.07053328010691 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 11.15 | 11.04 | 0.109999999999999 |
4 | 11.19 | 11.1768576838506 | 0.0131423161493505 |
5 | 11.33 | 11.251104156138 | 0.0788958438620071 |
6 | 11.38 | 11.3718980340528 | 0.00810196594718882 |
7 | 11.4 | 11.4468597626048 | -0.0468597626048197 |
8 | 11.45 | 11.4837923640485 | -0.0337923640485229 |
9 | 11.56 | 11.527698047102 | 0.0323019528979565 |
10 | 11.61 | 11.6162286075058 | -0.00622860750583598 |
11 | 11.82 | 11.6793246474793 | 0.14067535252069 |
12 | 11.77 | 11.8447766634099 | -0.0747766634099314 |
13 | 11.85 | 11.8661670117226 | -0.0161670117225921 |
14 | 11.82 | 11.9250659414185 | -0.105065941418502 |
15 | 11.92 | 11.9211063872517 | -0.0011063872516619 |
16 | 11.86 | 11.9849473051684 | -0.124947305168369 |
17 | 11.87 | 11.9622088712592 | -0.0922088712591904 |
18 | 11.94 | 11.9565930305847 | -0.016593030584696 |
19 | 11.86 | 11.999565608895 | -0.139565608895017 |
20 | 11.92 | 11.9558526214309 | -0.0358526214308839 |
21 | 11.83 | 11.9781796348244 | -0.148179634824386 |
22 | 11.91 | 11.9203725888166 | -0.0103725888166366 |
23 | 11.93 | 11.9520307273081 | -0.0220307273080795 |
24 | 11.99 | 11.9750657494282 | 0.0149342505717822 |
25 | 11.96 | 12.0229142460069 | -0.0629142460068888 |
26 | 12.12 | 12.0170570128632 | 0.102942987136812 |
27 | 11.85 | 12.1241889998535 | -0.274188999853463 |
28 | 12.01 | 11.9725555073983 | 0.0374444926016633 |
29 | 12.1 | 12.0260399721898 | 0.0739600278102284 |
30 | 12.21 | 12.1067618271195 | 0.103238172880548 |
31 | 12.31 | 12.2113452567917 | 0.0986547432082538 |
32 | 12.31 | 12.3174787889728 | -0.00747878897278298 |
33 | 12.39 | 12.3539977373569 | 0.036002262643148 |
34 | 12.35 | 12.420552880477 | -0.0705528804769635 |
35 | 12.41 | 12.4143146482294 | -0.00431464822944427 |
36 | 12.51 | 12.4511095760402 | 0.0588904239598236 |
37 | 12.27 | 12.5318676557248 | -0.261867655724838 |
38 | 12.51 | 12.3912210940012 | 0.118778905998836 |
39 | 12.44 | 12.5044795636216 | -0.0644795636216244 |
40 | 12.47 | 12.495162192803 | -0.0251621928029859 |
41 | 12.51 | 12.5103477941783 | -0.000347794178296112 |
42 | 12.58 | 12.5417130276123 | 0.0382869723876595 |
43 | 12.5 | 12.600056601913 | -0.100056601913003 |
44 | 12.52 | 12.5635012030593 | -0.0435012030593001 |
45 | 12.59 | 12.5618553034081 | 0.0281446965919248 |
46 | 12.51 | 12.6082662596736 | -0.0982662596736059 |
47 | 12.67 | 12.5676487371271 | 0.102351262872933 |
48 | 12.64 | 12.6626802336909 | -0.0226802336908918 |
49 | 12.54 | 12.6750631906851 | -0.135063190685113 |
50 | 12.6 | 12.6078793915198 | -0.00787939151983963 |
51 | 12.67 | 12.6233420642596 | 0.0466579357404058 |
52 | 12.62 | 12.6765475785091 | -0.0565475785091181 |
53 | 12.72 | 12.6597906582336 | 0.0602093417664218 |
54 | 12.85 | 12.7220093540296 | 0.127990645970396 |
55 | 12.85 | 12.8343590078539 | 0.0156409921460501 |
56 | 12.82 | 12.8741013144725 | -0.0541013144724527 |
57 | 12.79 | 12.8658342715644 | -0.075834271564446 |
58 | 12.94 | 12.8398917203044 | 0.10010827969556 |
59 | 12.71 | 12.9333902897645 | -0.223390289764458 |
60 | 12.56 | 12.8054668861694 | -0.245466886169371 |
61 | 12.64 | 12.6518346467177 | -0.0118346467176647 |
62 | 12.7 | 12.6501426277427 | 0.0498573722573443 |
63 | 12.74 | 12.6910103975307 | 0.0489896024693213 |
64 | 12.85 | 12.7335670372495 | 0.116432962750507 |
65 | 12.84 | 12.8255020103407 | 0.0144979896593078 |
66 | 12.83 | 12.8515743800027 | -0.0215743800027237 |
67 | 12.88 | 12.8531101762457 | 0.0268898237542512 |
68 | 13.07 | 12.8875150355223 | 0.182484964477689 |
69 | 12.99 | 13.0318730610153 | -0.0418730610152682 |
70 | 13.2 | 13.0278714417591 | 0.172128558240894 |
71 | 13.23 | 13.1714664562906 | 0.0585335437093697 |
72 | 13.18 | 13.2436158728609 | -0.0636158728609022 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 13.2331133266597 | 13.0449499566956 | 13.4212766966239 |
74 | 13.2641310271268 | 13.0345878816223 | 13.4936741726313 |
75 | 13.2951487275939 | 13.0262113367592 | 13.5640861184286 |
76 | 13.326166428061 | 13.0188110772836 | 13.6335217788384 |
77 | 13.357184128528 | 13.0118435802741 | 13.7025246767819 |
78 | 13.3882018289951 | 13.0049842246605 | 13.7714194333297 |
79 | 13.4192195294622 | 12.9980256431163 | 13.8404134158081 |
80 | 13.4502372299292 | 12.9908290983398 | 13.9096453615187 |
81 | 13.4812549303963 | 12.9832986864044 | 13.9792111743882 |
82 | 13.5122726308634 | 12.9753665657013 | 14.0491786960255 |
83 | 13.5432903313305 | 12.9669839881108 | 14.1195966745501 |
84 | 13.5743080317975 | 12.9581155939625 | 14.1905004696326 |