Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.69078213740303 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 101.14 | 99.23 | 1.91 |
3 | 100.8 | 100.54939388244 | 0.25060611756021 |
4 | 98.93 | 100.722508111974 | -1.7925081119743 |
5 | 100.97 | 99.4842755270724 | 1.48572447292757 |
6 | 101.69 | 100.510587454073 | 1.17941254592667 |
7 | 102.14 | 101.325304573428 | 0.814695426571504 |
8 | 102.52 | 101.888081621528 | 0.631918378471966 |
9 | 103.4 | 102.324599549673 | 1.07540045032685 |
10 | 105.83 | 103.067466971314 | 2.76253302868588 |
11 | 104.35 | 104.975775441516 | -0.625775441516225 |
12 | 106.61 | 104.543500944491 | 2.06649905550869 |
13 | 105.63 | 105.971001578997 | -0.341001578996952 |
14 | 106.73 | 105.7354437794 | 0.994556220600373 |
15 | 106.19 | 106.422465451233 | -0.232465451233438 |
16 | 107.26 | 106.261882469958 | 0.998117530041966 |
17 | 106.27 | 106.95136423074 | -0.68136423073986 |
18 | 107.45 | 106.480689991079 | 0.969310008920601 |
19 | 107.63 | 107.150272030848 | 0.479727969152265 |
20 | 107.45 | 107.481659542751 | -0.0316595427507451 |
21 | 107.74 | 107.45978969614 | 0.280210303859803 |
22 | 108.15 | 107.653353968763 | 0.496646031237191 |
23 | 108.99 | 107.996428175754 | 0.993571824246416 |
24 | 108.83 | 108.68276984417 | 0.147230155830059 |
25 | 110.78 | 108.784473805904 | 1.99552619409559 |
26 | 110.66 | 110.162947655505 | 0.497052344494506 |
27 | 108.51 | 110.506302536437 | -1.99630253643659 |
28 | 108.29 | 109.127292403414 | -0.837292403413826 |
29 | 109.33 | 108.548905767352 | 0.781094232647689 |
30 | 107.06 | 109.088471710894 | -2.02847171089385 |
31 | 108.02 | 107.687239686781 | 0.332760313218984 |
32 | 109.43 | 107.917104567189 | 1.51289543281068 |
33 | 109.85 | 108.962185707934 | 0.887814292066423 |
34 | 110.5 | 109.575471962224 | 0.924528037775829 |
35 | 109.9 | 110.214119416248 | -0.314119416247976 |
36 | 110.92 | 109.997131334492 | 0.922868665507593 |
37 | 108.36 | 110.634632523794 | -2.27463252379403 |
38 | 109.01 | 109.063357007201 | -0.0533570072011287 |
39 | 108.03 | 109.026498939721 | -0.996498939721306 |
40 | 106.28 | 108.338135272221 | -2.05813527222077 |
41 | 106.6 | 106.916412189812 | -0.316412189811544 |
42 | 108.06 | 106.697840301033 | 1.36215969896685 |
43 | 107.42 | 107.63879588937 | -0.218795889369744 |
44 | 107.58 | 107.487655597256 | 0.0923444027440752 |
45 | 107.59 | 107.551445461161 | 0.0385545388393211 |
46 | 109.66 | 107.578078247907 | 2.08192175209329 |
47 | 107.85 | 109.016232605724 | -1.16623260572358 |
48 | 110.74 | 108.210619953633 | 2.52938004636727 |
49 | 108.8 | 109.957870508367 | -1.15787050836688 |
50 | 109.18 | 109.158034243761 | 0.0219657562387283 |
51 | 108.38 | 109.173207795806 | -0.793207795805543 |
52 | 108.59 | 108.625274019214 | -0.035274019214242 |
53 | 109.52 | 108.600907356827 | 0.919092643173357 |
54 | 108.71 | 109.235800137349 | -0.525800137349336 |
55 | 109.78 | 108.872586794624 | 0.907413205375647 |
56 | 109.77 | 109.499411628141 | 0.270588371858523 |
57 | 109.34 | 109.68632924201 | -0.346329242010313 |
58 | 111.86 | 109.447091187969 | 2.41290881203074 |
59 | 110.74 | 111.113885494502 | -0.37388549450246 |
60 | 110.67 | 110.855612073466 | -0.185612073466061 |
61 | 111.36 | 110.727394568629 | 0.632605431370635 |
62 | 112.21 | 111.164387100644 | 1.04561289935566 |
63 | 110.2 | 111.886677814157 | -1.68667781415741 |
64 | 110.99 | 110.721550908583 | 0.268449091416514 |
65 | 110.43 | 110.906990745736 | -0.476990745736074 |
66 | 110.72 | 110.577494058875 | 0.142505941124952 |
67 | 111.19 | 110.675934617478 | 0.51406538252202 |
68 | 111.52 | 111.031041801181 | 0.488958198818551 |
69 | 111.99 | 111.368805390862 | 0.62119460913793 |
70 | 111.65 | 111.797915530706 | -0.147915530705603 |
71 | 114.45 | 111.69573812425 | 2.75426187575032 |
72 | 115.58 | 113.598333029748 | 1.98166697025184 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 114.96723317508 | 112.70588599567 | 117.228580354489 |
74 | 114.96723317508 | 112.218807812987 | 117.715658537173 |
75 | 114.96723317508 | 111.80590546727 | 118.12856088289 |
76 | 114.96723317508 | 111.441025044334 | 118.493441305826 |
77 | 114.96723317508 | 111.110512458394 | 118.823953891765 |
78 | 114.96723317508 | 110.806170138825 | 119.128296211334 |
79 | 114.96723317508 | 110.522618850208 | 119.411847499952 |
80 | 114.96723317508 | 110.256103013215 | 119.678363336944 |
81 | 114.96723317508 | 110.003877625938 | 119.930588724222 |
82 | 114.96723317508 | 109.763864149883 | 120.170602200276 |
83 | 114.96723317508 | 109.534443825441 | 120.400022524718 |
84 | 114.96723317508 | 109.314326752476 | 120.620139597684 |